本文選題：城市群　切入點(diǎn)：水資源承載力　出處：《石河子大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：水是地球生命之本,人類文明之源,水資源與人類的關(guān)系一向是互相聯(lián)系互相作用,一方面水是人維持生命進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)的不可缺少的資源,另一方面人類經(jīng)濟(jì)社會活動的范圍、程度又直接影響到水資源的質(zhì)和量。水資源作為一種基礎(chǔ)性資源,對生命支持系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到重要的支撐作用,其可持續(xù)開發(fā)利用是區(qū)域健康持續(xù)發(fā)展的首要條件。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的快速發(fā)展和城市化的快速推進(jìn),世界共同面臨水資源欠缺和水環(huán)境破壞的嚴(yán)峻問題,水資源不再是無窮無盡、源源不斷的自然資源,而越來越成為一種限制性的資源。2013年提出“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”構(gòu)思以及中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊,我國西北地區(qū)處于“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”的焦點(diǎn)區(qū)域,隨著“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”的提出以及相關(guān)配套措施的推進(jìn),該區(qū)域內(nèi)具有若干高密度集聚、地處交通樞紐的城市群,作為承載絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶戰(zhàn)略實(shí)踐的焦點(diǎn)地帶,必將成為海內(nèi)外開發(fā)投資的熱門地區(qū)。尤其是西北地區(qū)干旱缺水,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱,水資源面臨非常嚴(yán)峻的形勢,“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”建設(shè)給人口集聚、經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的城市群帶來新的機(jī)遇,同時也帶來了巨大的壓力,水資源承載力能否支撐其經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展關(guān)系到該區(qū)域城市群能否實(shí)現(xiàn)健康、可持續(xù)的發(fā)展�；诖�,本文從城市群水資源條件、經(jīng)濟(jì)條件、社會條件、生態(tài)環(huán)境條件等四個方面對西北地區(qū)城市群水資源承載力評價,首先采取基于熵權(quán)的集對分析對各城市群及群內(nèi)城市水資源承載力評價,其次運(yùn)用指數(shù)平滑法短期預(yù)測各城市群水資源承載力,評價結(jié)果表明:2006-2014年西北地區(qū)各城市群水資源承載力水平不停提升,水資源承載狀態(tài)不斷完善,但總體程度仍較低,且水資源條件、經(jīng)濟(jì)社會條件、生態(tài)環(huán)境條件之間有著明顯差異,除克拉瑪依、吐魯番外,群內(nèi)其余各城市水資源承載力均有所改善;其中關(guān)中—天水、蘭白西城市群水資源承載力較高,水資源條件較好但經(jīng)濟(jì)社會條件較差,水資源有可開發(fā)空間,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展?jié)摿^大;酒嘉玉、銀川平原、天山北坡水資源承載力較低,水資源條件較差,而經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會條件相對較高,在區(qū)域發(fā)展過程中需重點(diǎn)關(guān)注水資源的可持續(xù)利用問題。短期預(yù)測結(jié)果表明2015-2019年,西北地區(qū)各城市群水資源承載力將有進(jìn)一步的改善,但增速緩慢,總體程度仍偏低,其水資源承載力仍有待更大程度的提高。此中,關(guān)中—天水城市群水資源承載力仍然位于5大城市群之首,水資源承載力明顯提升,銀川平原城市群水資源承載力水平將有顯著提升,其年均增幅遠(yuǎn)高于其余城市群,蘭白西城市群水資源承載力呈現(xiàn)緩慢增長趨勢,天山北坡城市群水資源承載力水平變化不是很大,酒嘉玉城市群水資源承載力水平略有變動,呈現(xiàn)緩慢下降趨勢。基于以上結(jié)果,本文提出要在合理選擇城市發(fā)展規(guī)模以及采用相關(guān)配套保障措施的基礎(chǔ)上,通過提高水資源可利用量、合理控制人口、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)、加強(qiáng)水生態(tài)保護(hù)促進(jìn)水資源自我循環(huán)等措施結(jié)構(gòu)性的提升各城市群水資源承載力。
[Abstract]:Water is the life of the earth, the source of human civilization, the relationship between water resources and human has always been linked each other, hand water is life sustaining production indispensable resources, on the other hand, the scope of human economic and social activities, and directly affects the quality and quantity of water resources as water resources. One of the basic resources of the life support system and economic development plays an important supporting role, its sustainable utilization is the primary condition for regional sustainable development. With the rapid development of the rapid development of economy and society and the city, the world facing severe problems the lack of damage to water resources and water environment, water resources is no longer Everfount inexhaustible, natural resources, and is increasingly becoming a limiting resource.2013 the Silk Road Economic Belt "conception, Pakistan Economic Corridor, Northwest China In the area of focus Silk Road Economic Belt ", with the" Silk Road Economic Belt "and related supporting measures in advance, the region has a number of high density clusters, located in the transportation hub of the city group, as bearing with strategic practice focus areas Silk Road economy, will become a hot area overseas investment. Especially in arid region of Northwest China, fragile ecosystems, water resources facing a very serious situation," the construction of Silk Road Economic Belt "to the concentration of population, the rapid economic development of the city group has brought new opportunities, but also brought great pressure, can support its economic and social development in relation to the regional city group can achieve the health of water resources carrying capacity, sustainable development. Based on this, this article from the city water resources conditions, economic conditions, social conditions, environmental conditions and other four party In the face of the northwest city of water resources carrying capacity evaluation, first take the entropy set based on analysis and evaluation of each city group and a group of inner city water resources carrying capacity, followed by the use of exponential smoothing method for short-term prediction of water resources carrying capacity of the city group, the evaluation results show that: 2006-2014 years of each city agglomerations in northwest water resources carrying capacity the level of continuous improvement, and constantly improve the water resources carrying state, but the overall level is still low, and the water resources conditions, economic and social conditions, there are significant differences between ecological and environmental conditions, in addition to Karamay, Turpan, the water resources within the group more than the city carrying capacity were improved; the Guanzhong Tianshui, blue white West City water resources with high bearing capacity, water resource is good but the economic and social conditions, water resources development space, potential economic and social development greatly; wine Jiayu, Yinchuan plain, water resources in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains The bearing capacity is low, the water resources conditions, economic and social conditions, relatively high, in the process of regional economic development should focus on the sustainable utilization of water resources. The short-term prediction results show that 2015-2019 years, the city water resources in Northwest China Group will have further improved the bearing capacity, but the growth rate is slow, the overall level is still low. Still more to improve the water resource carrying capacity. In addition, Guanzhong Tianshui still located in the 5 largest city in the first group of city water resources carrying capacity, improve the carrying capacity of water resources, water resources in Yinchuan plain city group bearing capacity level will be significantly improved, the average annual growth rate is far higher than the rest of the city group showed a slow growth trend, the bearing capacity of white orchid west city group of water resources, water resources in North Tianshan mountain city group carrying capacity change is not large, wine Jiayu group of city water resources carrying capacity level slightly change slowly. A downward trend. Based on the above results, this paper will adopt relevant measures based on the reasonable choice of city development scale and, by increasing the amount of available water resources, the reasonable control of the population, the adjustment of industrial structure development, strengthen ecological protection of water resources to promote water self circulation structural improvement measures of each city groups of water resources carrying capacity.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4

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本文編號：1631471