本文選題：好水川流域　切入點(diǎn)：降水預(yù)報(bào)　出處：《寧夏大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：黃土高原區(qū)域是世界上最大的黃土集聚區(qū),區(qū)域土地資源開闊,水資源非常缺乏,且蒸發(fā)量大,降水量相對(duì)稀少并且時(shí)空分布極不均勻,水資源利用率較低。由于長(zhǎng)期收認(rèn)為因素干擾以及自然氣候特點(diǎn),生態(tài)環(huán)境演變的非常脆弱。隨著人口和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的日益發(fā)展,水資源供給與需求之間的矛盾越來(lái)越突出,流域水資源的評(píng)價(jià)工作是流域水資源配置、調(diào)度、高效利用和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)和有效途徑。 隆德縣的水資源利用主要為地表水資源,地下水的埋深比較大,所以地下水資源的開采程度比較低。研究區(qū)域?qū)幭穆〉驴h好水川流域面積102km2,流域內(nèi)生態(tài)、生活、生產(chǎn)用水皆依靠當(dāng)?shù)厮Y源。該地區(qū)沒(méi)有外水流入,地表水資源主要來(lái)自于降水后產(chǎn)生的地表徑流。 流域內(nèi)地表水主要用于農(nóng)業(yè)用水即灌溉用水,灌溉在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中起著決定作用。灌溉用水有效利用系數(shù)是能夠反映全灌區(qū)渠系輸水和田間用水狀況,與灌區(qū)自然條件、工程狀況、用水管理等因素有關(guān),是評(píng)價(jià)灌溉用水效率的重要指標(biāo)。 論文以好水川流域作為研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)收集資料、實(shí)地調(diào)查、實(shí)驗(yàn)觀察、模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論分析方法,對(duì)流域水資源分析研究。將灰色預(yù)測(cè)與馬爾可夫模型結(jié)合,建立了適合該流域的降水模型,對(duì)區(qū)域內(nèi)未來(lái)的降水進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào)和趨勢(shì)分析；在了解模型原理和學(xué)習(xí)使用的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用集總式水文模型,對(duì)好水川流域進(jìn)行降雨徑流模擬研究,將模擬結(jié)果與實(shí)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,并對(duì)流域內(nèi)不同土地利用類型和降雨情況下的地表徑流進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào)；選用“首尾測(cè)算分析法”,測(cè)算出好水川流域現(xiàn)狀農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉用水有效利用系數(shù)為0.533；對(duì)灌區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水用水有效利用系數(shù)的主要影響因素進(jìn)行分析,并初步分析了提高灌溉水有效利用系數(shù)的潛力。
[Abstract]:The Loess Plateau region is the largest loess gathering area in the world. The regional land resources are open, the water resources are very short, the evaporation is large, the precipitation is relatively rare and the spatial and temporal distribution is very uneven. The utilization ratio of water resources is low. The ecological environment evolves very fragile because of the disturbance of long-term income factors and the characteristics of natural climate. With the increasing development of population and social economy, the contradiction between water supply and demand is becoming more and more prominent. The evaluation of watershed water resources is the basis and effective way of water resources allocation, scheduling, efficient utilization and sustainable development. The utilization of water resources in Longde County is mainly surface water resources, the groundwater depth is relatively large, so the exploitation degree of groundwater resources is relatively low. Water for production depends on local water resources. There is no external water inflow in this area, and surface water resources mainly come from surface runoff after precipitation. The surface water in the basin is mainly used for agricultural water, that is, irrigation, which plays a decisive role in agricultural production. The effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water can reflect the water conveyance of canal system and field water use in the whole irrigated area, and the natural conditions of the irrigation area. Engineering condition, water use management and other factors are important indexes to evaluate irrigation water use efficiency. This paper studies the water resources of the watershed by collecting data, field investigation, experimental observation, fuzzy mathematics theory analysis method, combining grey forecast with Markov model. The precipitation model suitable for this basin is established to forecast and analyze the future precipitation in the region, and on the basis of understanding the principle of the model and studying and using the model, the hydrological model of lumped model is used to simulate the rainfall runoff in Haoshui River Basin. The simulation results are compared with the measured results, and the surface runoff under different land use types and rainfall in the basin is forecasted. The effective utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation water is 0.533. The main influencing factors of the effective utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation water in irrigated area are analyzed. The potential of improving the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water was analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧夏大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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