本文關(guān)鍵詞： 改進(jìn)模糊集分析法 變異系數(shù)法 均值變點(diǎn)分析法 汛期分期 吳城水庫　出處：《長江科學(xué)院院報(bào)》2017年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：傳統(tǒng)的模糊集分析法進(jìn)行汛期分期過程中,在汛期區(qū)間與閾值的確定方面存在主觀性較強(qiáng)的問題,同時(shí)該方法只能考慮單一的因素,針對(duì)這些問題提出改進(jìn)模糊集分析法。使用變異系數(shù)法計(jì)算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,用每個(gè)旬的所有指標(biāo)加權(quán)組合成為一個(gè)綜合指標(biāo),以代替原來的單一指標(biāo);使用模糊集合分析法計(jì)算隸屬度,劃分汛期與非汛期,最后在汛期區(qū)間內(nèi),使用均值變點(diǎn)分析法尋找變點(diǎn),并以此進(jìn)行汛期分期。改進(jìn)的模糊集分析法的分期結(jié)果與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)法、傳統(tǒng)模糊集合分析法的汛期分期結(jié)果大體一致,說明提出的改進(jìn)模糊集分析法適用性強(qiáng)。
[Abstract]:In the process of flood season staging by traditional fuzzy set analysis, there is a strong subjective problem in determining the interval and threshold of flood season, and the method can only consider a single factor. To solve these problems, an improved fuzzy set analysis method is put forward. The coefficient of variation method is used to calculate the index weight, and all the indexes in each ten days are weighted and combined to form a comprehensive index instead of the original single index. The membership degree is calculated by fuzzy set analysis method, and the flood season and non-flood season are divided. At last, the mean value change point analysis method is used to find the change point in the flood season interval. The result of the improved fuzzy set analysis method is consistent with that of the traditional fuzzy set analysis method, which shows that the improved fuzzy set analysis method has strong applicability.
【作者單位】： 太原理工大學(xué)水利科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51509176)
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.13
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本文編號(hào)：1510054