本文關(guān)鍵詞： 產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng) 經(jīng)濟增長 動態(tài)關(guān)系 VAR模型 新疆　出處：《生態(tài)學報》2017年16期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：新疆正面臨"五化同步"對水資源的需求不斷增長與水資源開發(fā)利用過度的矛盾。水資源瓶頸制約已成為影響新疆經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展和長治久安的突出問題之一。運用VAR模型,通過ADF檢驗、脈沖響應函數(shù)和方差貢獻度分解,對2000—2014年新疆耗水產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟增長的長期均衡關(guān)系進行實證分析。結(jié)果表明:(1)經(jīng)濟增長與總用水量、工業(yè)用水量和農(nóng)業(yè)用水量之間均存在長期均衡關(guān)系;(2)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對用水量產(chǎn)生負向沖擊,工業(yè)用水量和農(nóng)業(yè)用水量隨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展出現(xiàn)正向沖擊效應。(3)新疆經(jīng)濟快速增長伴隨著水資源的大力開發(fā)和過度利用。據(jù)此提出對策建議,通過實施嚴格的退地減水政策,明確用水總量控制和定額指標,加強跨流域調(diào)水工程建設,防止浪費等多途徑維持新疆水資源可持續(xù)利用和耗水產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Xinjiang is facing the "five Modernization synchronization" The contradiction between the increasing demand for water resources and the excessive exploitation and utilization of water resources. The bottleneck restriction of water resources has become one of the outstanding problems affecting the sustainable economic development and long-term stability of Xinjiang. The VAR model is used. The impulse response function and variance contribution are decomposed by ADF test. This paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between water consumption ecosystem and economic growth in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the economic growth and total water consumption. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between industrial water consumption and agricultural water consumption. 2) Economic development has a negative impact on water consumption. With the development of economy, the rapid economic growth of Xinjiang is accompanied by the great development and over-utilization of water resources. Accordingly, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through the implementation of strict policy of land retreat and water reduction, the total quantity control and quota index of water use should be defined, the construction of water diversion project should be strengthened, and the sustainable utilization of water resources and the healthy development of water consumption industry in Xinjiang should be maintained by preventing waste and so on.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學新疆創(chuàng)新管理研究中心;新疆大學經(jīng)濟與管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(71463056,41461114) 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)自然科學基金項目(2016D01B054)
【分類號】：F127;F224;TV213.4
【正文快照】： 生態(tài)系統(tǒng),水資源無疑是其中重要的組成部分,也是維系生態(tài)系統(tǒng)正常運行的必要條件。對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)進行系統(tǒng)化分析,通過調(diào)研或者模擬,合理配置水資源成為當前研究的一個重要熱點。新疆地區(qū),以其特殊的自然環(huán)境、獨特的綠洲經(jīng)濟以及重要的國家戰(zhàn)略地位,決定了水資源合理配置是其其他

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本文編號：1471983