本文關鍵詞：南水北調對江蘇沿線城市生態(tài)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響研究　出處：《東南大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 東線調水系統(tǒng) 生態(tài)經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng) 指標評價 系統(tǒng)動力學

【摘要】：南水北調工程是一項大規(guī)模的戰(zhàn)略性調水工程。它以改善居民生存環(huán)境,促進經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展為目的,依照人的意志在時間和空間維度上對水資源進行再分配。水資源固有的生態(tài)經(jīng)濟價值可以讓人們獲得巨大的經(jīng)濟和生態(tài)環(huán)境效益這一點是毫無疑問的,然而,調水工程的建設也將不可避免地改變區(qū)域水資源狀況,改變原始的生態(tài)環(huán)境,打破原有的生態(tài)平衡,如果處理不當,將會造成嚴重的,甚至是不可逆轉的生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞,使人們的生存與發(fā)展面臨威脅。因而,設計科學合理的調水工程,將工程負面影響降到最低以最大化工程綜合效益顯得尤其重要。本文依據(jù)南水北調東線工程生態(tài)經(jīng)濟影響的研究結論提出相關政策建議,為優(yōu)化類似工程項目的建設程序,提高決策水平、管理水平與投資效果提供借鑒,對東線第二、三期工程規(guī)劃建設具有實踐研究的價值。本文建立了調水工程建設期生態(tài)經(jīng)濟影響的評價指標體系,分別利用模糊數(shù)學評價法、距離指數(shù)法對生態(tài)經(jīng)濟壓力子系統(tǒng)、響應子系統(tǒng)和狀態(tài)子系統(tǒng)進行綜合評價,得出結論：在建設期,調水工程對江蘇沿線城市生態(tài)經(jīng)濟壓力子系統(tǒng)有較小的負面影響,對響應子系統(tǒng)有較大的正面影響,對狀態(tài)子系統(tǒng)的影響則經(jīng)歷了從極小的負面影響到極小的正面影響,再到較小的正面影響的過程,并且這種正面影響有繼續(xù)增大的趨勢。在調水工程運營期,論文建立了調水工程生態(tài)經(jīng)濟影響的系統(tǒng)動力學模型,通過方案設定與模擬及各方案仿真結果的比較,得出結論：從總體上來看,隨著調水量的增加,農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值以及人口數(shù)量都有不同程度的上升,污水存量減少,漏斗面積降低；隨著調水污染率的增大,農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值以及人口數(shù)量都有一定程度的下降,污水存量劇增,漏斗面積增加。從生態(tài)經(jīng)濟各子系統(tǒng)來看,對于農(nóng)業(yè)子系統(tǒng),隨著調水量的連續(xù)增加,農(nóng)業(yè)用水效率逐漸降低,并且當調水量增加到一定量時,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值將不再上升,調水污染率對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值的影響較小；對于工業(yè)子系統(tǒng),隨著調水量的連續(xù)增加,工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值增長率下降幅度甚微,工業(yè)生產(chǎn)用水效率維持在一個較穩(wěn)定的水平上,然而,工業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值受調水污染率的影響較大,隨著調水污染率的增大,生產(chǎn)總值降幅顯著；對于人口子系統(tǒng),隨著調水量的增加,人口數(shù)量增加,隨著調水污染率的增大,人口數(shù)量減少,但變化幅度甚微,這與人口數(shù)量的影響因素較復雜有關；對于環(huán)境子系統(tǒng),調水量和調水污染率的變化對污水存量和降落漏斗面積的影響都比較大,它們都隨調水量的增加而減少,隨調水污染率的增大而增加,這也充分體現(xiàn)了水資源在生態(tài)環(huán)境中的重要性。文章最后從工程規(guī)劃、移民安置、污染治理以及調水量規(guī)劃這四個方面提出相關政策建議,為東線第二、三期工程建設提供借鑒。
[Abstract]:The south to North Water Transfer Project is a large-scale strategic water diversion project. It aims at improving the living environment of the residents and promoting the sustainable development of the economy, and redistributing water resources in terms of time and space according to human will. However, water resources ecological economic inherent value can make people obtain the huge economic and ecological benefits of this is no doubt that, the construction of water diversion project will inevitably change the status of regional water resources, change the original ecological environment, break the ecological balance of the original, if not handled properly, it will cause serious. Even irreversible damage to the ecological environment, people's survival and development is facing threats. Therefore, it is particularly important to design a scientific and reasonable water transfer project and minimize the negative impact of the project to maximize the comprehensive benefits of the project. The research conclusion and puts forward relevant policy suggestions based on the ecological and economic effects of the south to North Water Diversion Project, in order to optimize the similar project construction procedures, improve the decision-making level, management level and investment results provide reference, with practical research on the planning and construction of the east of the second, third phase of the project value. This paper establishes the effect of ecological economy construction of water diversion project evaluation index system, using fuzzy evaluation method, distance index method draws the conclusion on the response subsystem and the subsystem of eco economic pressure subsystem, comprehensive evaluation, in the construction period, the negative impact of water diversion projects are small along the Jiangsu city ecosystem the economic pressure subsystem, has a greater positive impact on the response subsystem, experienced a positive impact from the negative impact of minimum to minimal impact on the state of subsystem, then to the positive impact of the smaller, and the positive effect of increasing trend. In the operation of the water diversion project, the system dynamics model is established in this paper the influence of eco economic water diversion project, comparison, setting and simulation and the simulation results of each scheme through the program draws the conclusion: on the whole, with the increase of water, agriculture, industrial GDP and population have increased in different degree. The stock of water is reduced, the funnel area decreased; with the increase of water pollution rate, agriculture, the number of total industrial production and population has a certain degree of decline, the stock of water increases, the funnel area increased. From the perspective of ecological economy for every subsystem, agricultural subsystem, along with the continuous increase of water, agricultural water use efficiency decreased gradually, and when the water quantity increases to a certain amount, gross agricultural production will no longer increase, water pollution rate has little effect on agricultural GDP; for the industrial system, with the continuous increase the water, the growth rate of industrial production value little decrease, the water use efficiency of industrial production remained at a relatively stable level, however, the gross industrial output value by adjusting effect of water pollution rate is larger, with the increase of water pollution rate, GDP fell significantly; the population subsystem, with the increase of water transfer. The population increased, with the increase of water pollution rate, the population decreased, but the extent of this effect, and factors affecting the population is more complex; for the environment subsystem, water diversion and diversion The change rate of water pollution are relatively large in stock and the effect of sewage funnel area of the landing, all of them with the increasing of water content decreased with the increase of water pollution rate increased, which fully reflects the importance of water resources in the ecological environment. Finally, from the four aspects of engineering planning, resettlement, pollution control and water volume planning, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations, so as to provide reference for the second, third phase of east line construction.
【學位授予單位】：東南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV68;F127

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