發(fā)布時間：2019-04-19 10:45

【摘要】：近年來國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對于含蠟原油管道流動保障技術(shù)的研究較為全面豐富。在已有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對原油管道流動失效概率高效算法進行了探索,采用特征正交分解(POD)空間降維技術(shù)來降低單個再啟動模擬的時間;采用基于Houska觸變性模型的再啟動壓力計算模型來描述含蠟原油觸變性特征;采用拉丁超立方(LHS)抽樣方法克服傳統(tǒng)的蒙托卡洛方法的收斂性差的缺點,減少抽樣次數(shù);引入干涉原理,來求解再啟動失效概率,減少小概率對計算樣本的要求。通過多種技術(shù)的綜合應(yīng)用,使計算時間明顯減少,計算模型更為準確,完善了高含蠟原油管道流動安全評價軟件。停輸再啟動過程和運行管輸過程工藝參數(shù)波動性對含蠟原油管道流動安全性的影響進行了研究,以中朝線中方段管道為例,分析了管道失效概率隨停輸時間、出站溫度、輸量、管道埋深、地溫等影響因素的變化規(guī)律,進行了敏感性分析和安全裕量分析,并提出了管道進入不穩(wěn)定工作區(qū)后進一步惡化至管道停流的轉(zhuǎn)化概率,來表示管輸運行時惡化情況。鑒于流動安全性的要求,并從設(shè)備本身的可靠性出發(fā)考慮,提出了一種立足于站場整體的直接式加熱爐安全評價方法及流程,包括:生產(chǎn)報表數(shù)據(jù)自動篩選與提取、計算相關(guān)工況參數(shù)均值與方差、統(tǒng)計加熱爐效率分布、隨機多次抽樣反算出站溫度分布;結(jié)合最低出站溫度來評價加熱爐性能并提出改進建議。以此為根據(jù),開發(fā)了加熱爐工藝風(fēng)險評價軟件,并對相關(guān)算例進行風(fēng)險評價,評價結(jié)果符合實際。
[Abstract]:In recent years, scholars at home and abroad have studied the flow support technology of waxy crude oil pipeline in an all-round way. On the basis of the existing research, the efficient algorithm of failure probability of crude oil pipeline flow is explored. The orthogonal decomposition (POD) space dimension reduction technique is used to reduce the time of single restart simulation. The restart pressure calculation model based on Houska thixotropy model is used to describe the thixotropic characteristics of waxy crude oil, and Latin hypercubic (LHS) sampling method is used to overcome the shortcomings of the traditional Montocarol method, and to reduce the sampling times. The interference principle is introduced to solve the failure probability of restart and reduce the requirement of small probability to calculate the sample. Through the comprehensive application of various techniques, the calculation time is obviously reduced, the calculation model is more accurate, and the safety evaluation software for the flow of high waxy crude oil pipeline is perfected. The effect of process parameter fluctuation on the flow safety of waxy crude oil pipeline during shutdown and re-start process and operation pipeline was studied. Taking the Chinese section of Sino-Korean line as an example, the failure probability of pipeline was analyzed with the shutdown time, the outbound temperature and the volume of transportation, and the failure probability of pipeline was analyzed. The sensitivity analysis and safety margin analysis of the influence factors such as buried depth and ground temperature of the pipeline are carried out, and the transformation probability of further deterioration to the pipeline stop flow after the pipeline enters the unstable working area is put forward. To indicate the deterioration of pipeline operation. In view of the requirement of flow safety and considering the reliability of the equipment, this paper presents a safety evaluation method and process of direct heating furnace based on the whole station yard, including: automatic selection and extraction of production report data; The mean and variance of the parameters are calculated, the efficiency distribution of the heating furnace is counted, and the temperature distribution of the station is calculated by random multiple sampling. Combined with the lowest outbound temperature, the performance of the reheating furnace is evaluated and suggestions for improvement are put forward. On the basis of this, the software of process risk assessment for reheating furnace is developed, and the related examples are evaluated. The evaluation results accord with the reality.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國民航大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE832

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本文編號：2460871