【摘要】：頁(yè)巖氣是一種迅速發(fā)展的非常規(guī)天然氣資源,其在我國(guó)的資源儲(chǔ)量十分巨大。在當(dāng)前我國(guó)石油對(duì)外依存度不斷上升的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)下,頁(yè)巖氣資源的勘探開(kāi)發(fā)利用對(duì)緩解我國(guó)能源缺口壓力至關(guān)重要。然而,頁(yè)巖氣的資源特征、開(kāi)采方式、產(chǎn)氣規(guī)律和常規(guī)天然氣資源差別較大,具有高技術(shù)、高投入、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn),使得頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資具有極高的不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性,這些不確定性因素貫穿了頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的整個(gè)生命周期,給企業(yè)在進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)對(duì)投資時(shí)機(jī)的選擇帶來(lái)了難題。為保證頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資的有效性以及促進(jìn)頁(yè)巖氣資源商業(yè)化開(kāi)發(fā),對(duì)不確定條件下頁(yè)巖氣項(xiàng)目投資決策時(shí)機(jī)進(jìn)行研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先對(duì)實(shí)物期權(quán)的基本理論以及相關(guān)理論的研究和發(fā)展進(jìn)行綜述,并對(duì)頁(yè)巖氣資源特征進(jìn)行闡述分析。其次,從頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資特點(diǎn)、不確定性以及其實(shí)物期權(quán)特性和期權(quán)價(jià)值等方面對(duì)頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資的實(shí)物期權(quán)進(jìn)行分析,并闡明頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資引入實(shí)物期權(quán)的必要性。再次,運(yùn)用實(shí)物期權(quán)理論構(gòu)建基于延遲實(shí)物期權(quán)的投資決策模型,對(duì)頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià),并運(yùn)用算例說(shuō)明模型的有效性。最后,對(duì)頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資項(xiàng)目的投資時(shí)機(jī)進(jìn)行討論,利用偏微分方法構(gòu)建頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資項(xiàng)目的最佳投資決策時(shí)機(jī)模型,將投資決策時(shí)機(jī)由定性選擇轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槎窟x擇,并用具體的算例驗(yàn)證實(shí)物期權(quán)方法在頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資項(xiàng)目應(yīng)用中的有效性和可行性。頁(yè)巖氣已在全球能源領(lǐng)域扮演著越來(lái)越重要的角色,占油氣使用的比重在不斷上升,開(kāi)發(fā)利用頁(yè)巖氣已經(jīng)成為世界主要頁(yè)巖氣資源大國(guó)和地區(qū)的共同選擇。本文的研究將有利于推進(jìn)實(shí)物期權(quán)理論在頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用,為解決頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資時(shí)機(jī)決策難題提供了新途徑和思路,對(duì)形成科學(xué)的頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策機(jī)制,促進(jìn)頁(yè)巖氣資源商業(yè)化開(kāi)發(fā)具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Shale gas is a rapidly developing unconventional natural gas resource, and its reserves in China are very large. The exploration and utilization of shale gas resources is very important to alleviate the pressure of energy gap in China under the severe situation of the increasing dependence of petroleum on the outside of China. However, the characteristics of shale gas resources, mining methods, gas production laws and conventional natural gas resources are quite different, with the characteristics of high technology, high investment and high risk, which makes the investment of shale gas development projects have extremely high uncertainty and risk. These uncertainties run through the whole life cycle of shale gas development project, which brings difficult problems for enterprises to choose the investment timing when making investment decisions. In order to ensure the effectiveness of shale gas development project investment and promote the commercial development of shale gas resources, it is of great practical significance to study the timing of shale gas project investment decision-making under uncertain conditions. In this paper, the basic theory of real option and the research and development of related theory are summarized, and the characteristics of shale gas resources are analyzed. Secondly, this paper analyzes the real options of shale gas development investment from the aspects of shale gas development investment characteristics, uncertainty, real option characteristics and option value, and clarifies the necessity of introducing real options into shale gas development investment. Thirdly, the real option theory is used to construct the investment decision-making model based on delayed real option, and the economic evaluation of shale gas development investment project is carried out, and an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. Finally, the investment timing of shale gas development investment project is discussed, the optimal investment decision time model of shale gas development investment project is constructed by partial differential method, and the investment decision time is changed from qualitative choice to quantitative choice. An example is given to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the real option method in shale gas development investment projects. Shale gas has been playing a more and more important role in the global energy field, and the proportion of oil and gas use is increasing. The exploitation and utilization of shale gas has become the common choice of the major shale gas resource countries and regions in the world. The research in this paper will be helpful to promote the application of real option theory in shale gas development and investment field, and provide a new way and train of thought for solving the difficult problem of timing and decision-making for shale gas development investment, and for forming a scientific decision-making mechanism for shale gas development investment. It is of great significance to promote the commercial exploitation of shale gas resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(華東)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F426.22

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