【摘要】：油氣田從勘探到開發(fā)的整個(gè)過程都存在很多不確定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。儲(chǔ)層地質(zhì)特征、油藏特征、流體性質(zhì)以及生產(chǎn)特征、開發(fā)方案的選擇、鉆井方式的選擇、經(jīng)濟(jì)及政治因素等的不確定性始終制約著人們對(duì)油氣田開發(fā)的認(rèn)識(shí)。在對(duì)一個(gè)油田進(jìn)行開發(fā)規(guī)劃時(shí),首先需要對(duì)整個(gè)油氣田有整體認(rèn)識(shí),弄清油氣田的儲(chǔ)量規(guī)模是為后續(xù)設(shè)計(jì)開發(fā)方案,指導(dǎo)油氣田開發(fā)工作、經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)及投資規(guī)模的重要依據(jù)。因此傳統(tǒng)的儲(chǔ)量計(jì)算方法如容積法等計(jì)算的單一儲(chǔ)量值便不足以描述地下油氣藏的不確定性,但是容積法卻是計(jì)算油氣儲(chǔ)量的一種最實(shí)用的方法,它對(duì)生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)要求不高,只需用油氣藏靜態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)便可得到儲(chǔ)量數(shù)值,而且它也是蒙特卡洛方法估算儲(chǔ)量的重要基礎(chǔ)。在大量文獻(xiàn)調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了蒙特卡洛方法在項(xiàng)目投資、能源工程、水力水電、氣象預(yù)測(cè),礦業(yè)項(xiàng)目投資、資源量評(píng)估等多方面的運(yùn)用。特別是近年來蒙特卡洛方法在石油領(lǐng)域得到了越來越多的應(yīng)用,如剩余油分布,鉆井時(shí)間的估算,測(cè)井解釋,儲(chǔ)量的分類以及經(jīng)濟(jì)極限產(chǎn)量的計(jì)算等領(lǐng)域都有著廣泛的應(yīng)用。其中基于容積法的蒙特卡洛儲(chǔ)量估算有著大量的應(yīng)用實(shí)例。本文對(duì)蒙特卡洛模擬在地質(zhì)儲(chǔ)量估算和經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)中的應(yīng)用作了研究,對(duì)使用蒙特卡洛法計(jì)算儲(chǔ)量的水晶球軟件作出了詳細(xì)介紹,并通過應(yīng)用實(shí)例對(duì)儲(chǔ)量計(jì)算中各個(gè)參數(shù)間的相關(guān)性是否對(duì)儲(chǔ)量計(jì)算結(jié)果有影響進(jìn)行了研究,對(duì)蒙特卡洛方法在經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用也作出了介紹和實(shí)例研究,通過應(yīng)用實(shí)例檢驗(yàn)了蒙特卡洛模擬在地質(zhì)儲(chǔ)量估算和經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)中的適用性。最后得出結(jié)論蒙特卡洛法在儲(chǔ)量計(jì)算及經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)領(lǐng)域是一種適用性極強(qiáng)的方法。對(duì)五個(gè)不同類型油氣藏的地質(zhì)儲(chǔ)量進(jìn)行了蒙特卡洛模擬,并對(duì)其變量間相關(guān)性對(duì)地質(zhì)儲(chǔ)量的影響進(jìn)行了分析和驗(yàn)證以確定其作為石油和天然氣儲(chǔ)量估算方法的有效性。從模擬所得的分布可以看出該方法可以有效的預(yù)測(cè)所研究油氣藏的儲(chǔ)量。在經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)例中運(yùn)用OptQuest工具,在不確定性情況下,對(duì)給定置信度下的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)NPV進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化,結(jié)果表明用OptQuest工具得到的最佳NPV值精度最高,證明其預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確可靠,可用以評(píng)價(jià)開發(fā)新區(qū)的開發(fā)前景。運(yùn)用Decision Table Tool(決策表工具)分析了在不確定性條件下,改變決策變量值對(duì)模擬模型結(jié)果的影響。決策表工具會(huì)自動(dòng)運(yùn)行多個(gè)模擬以檢測(cè)一個(gè)或兩個(gè)決策變量的不同值對(duì)NPV的影響。然后使用水晶球軟件中預(yù)測(cè)圖,趨勢(shì)圖,和疊加圖分析決策表工具運(yùn)行的結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:There are many uncertain risk factors in the whole process from exploration to development in oil and gas fields. The uncertainty of reservoir geological characteristics, reservoir characteristics, fluid properties and production characteristics, selection of development schemes, selection of drilling methods, and economic and political factors has always restricted people's understanding of the development of oil and gas fields. In the development planning of an oil field, it is necessary to have an overall understanding of the whole oil and gas field, and make clear that the reserve scale of the oil and gas field is an important basis for designing the development plan for the follow-up and guiding the development work, economic evaluation and investment scale of the oil and gas field. Therefore, the single storage value calculated by traditional reserves calculation methods, such as volume method, is not enough to describe the uncertainty of underground oil and gas reservoirs, but the volume method is one of the most practical methods for calculating oil and gas reserves, and it does not require high production data. The reserves can be obtained only by using the static data of oil and gas reservoirs, and it is also an important basis for estimating reserves by Monte Carlo method. On the basis of a large number of literatures, the application of Monte Carlo method in many aspects, such as project investment, energy engineering, hydro-electricity, meteorological prediction, mining project investment, resource quantity evaluation and so on, is summarized in this paper. Especially in recent years, Monte Carlo method has been applied more and more widely in petroleum field, such as distribution of remaining oil, estimation of drilling time, logging interpretation, classification of reserves and calculation of economic limit production. Monte Carlo reserves estimation based on volume method has a large number of application examples. In this paper, the application of Monte Carlo simulation in the estimation and economic evaluation of geological reserves is studied, and the crystal sphere software used to calculate reserves by Monte Carlo method is introduced in detail. The paper also studies whether the correlation among the parameters in the calculation of reserves has an effect on the result of reserve calculation, and also introduces the application of Monte Carlo method in the field of economic evaluation and makes a case study on the application of the Monte Carlo method in the field of economic evaluation. The applicability of Monte Carlo simulation in the estimation of geological reserves and economic evaluation is verified by an example. Finally, it is concluded that the Monte Carlo method is a highly applicable method in the field of reserves calculation and economic evaluation. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out on the geological reserves of five different types of oil and gas reservoirs, and the influence of the correlation among variables on the geological reserves is analyzed and verified in order to determine the validity of the method used as the estimation method of oil and natural gas reserves. From the simulated distribution, it can be seen that this method can effectively predict the reserves of the oil and gas reservoirs studied. In the case of economic evaluation, the OptQuest tool is used to optimize the economic index NPV under the given confidence level under uncertainty. The results show that the best NPV value obtained by the OptQuest tool has the highest precision, which proves that the prediction is accurate and reliable. It can be used to evaluate the development prospect of the new development area. In this paper, the influence of changing the value of decision variables on the results of simulation model is analyzed by using Decision Table Tool (decision table tool. The decision table tool automatically runs multiple simulations to detect the impact of different values of one or two decision variables on the NPV. Then, the results of decision table tools are analyzed by using prediction chart, trend chart, and superposition graph in crystal ball software.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE155;TE322

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