【摘要】：天然氣是一種集清潔、高效兩大優(yōu)點(diǎn)于一身的新型化石能源,是新世紀(jì)世界能源結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化的重要方式,而在眾多輸送方式中,管道必然是大規(guī)模輸送天然氣的最佳選擇。我國天然氣資源遍布南北,天然氣市場尚不集中,管道沿線地理環(huán)境復(fù)雜、生態(tài)敏感性高、用戶需求多樣,因此我國的天然氣管線承擔(dān)了最大的輸送任務(wù)和壓力,但管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的冗余度卻最小。綜合種種因素,使得我國天然氣管網(wǎng)成為世界上最復(fù)雜、輸送任務(wù)最艱巨的輸氣管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)。天然氣管網(wǎng)作為天然氣輸送的關(guān)鍵因素,其作用不言而喻,氣田的制造以及供氣的好壞與管網(wǎng)的質(zhì)量也有直接關(guān)系,天然氣管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)需要極高的安全性和極穩(wěn)定的輸氣能力。因此,將系統(tǒng)可靠性融入管網(wǎng)規(guī)劃、設(shè)計(jì)、運(yùn)行維護(hù)全過程,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)可靠性及單元間相互作用規(guī)律的全面、深入掌控,是我國天然氣管網(wǎng)發(fā)展的必然要求。本文針對(duì)天然氣輸送管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng),在對(duì)管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行故障工況下的水力工況分析的基礎(chǔ)上,研究天然氣管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的供氣可靠性。 天然氣管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的可靠性綜合評(píng)價(jià),應(yīng)當(dāng)首先研究管網(wǎng)故障工況下的拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu),根據(jù)故障工況下的拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu),結(jié)合水力計(jì)算基本模型,計(jì)算故障工況下的流量分布情況,最后根據(jù)計(jì)算得到的流量結(jié)果計(jì)算可靠度指標(biāo)。 研究管網(wǎng)故障工況下的拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)時(shí),第一步是建立平面管網(wǎng)的關(guān)聯(lián)矩陣和可以反映閥門信息的混合關(guān)聯(lián)矩陣,采用矩陣法將平面管網(wǎng)轉(zhuǎn)化為閥門網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,根據(jù)閥門網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型及其關(guān)聯(lián)矩陣,可以直觀地搜索出關(guān)斷區(qū)域,進(jìn)而制定故障元件對(duì)應(yīng)的關(guān)閥方案,通過搜索故障隔離時(shí)平面管網(wǎng)的所有連通子圖,重構(gòu)故障管網(wǎng)。 根據(jù)天然氣在管道內(nèi)流動(dòng)的相關(guān)性質(zhì),建立天然氣管網(wǎng)水力計(jì)算的基本模型,根據(jù)節(jié)點(diǎn)方程法,結(jié)合圖論基本知識(shí),利用MATLAB軟件編制了管網(wǎng)的水力計(jì)算程序�；谒τ�(jì)算的基本模型和故障管網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu),建立管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)故障工況水力分析模型。運(yùn)用TGNET軟件對(duì)故障工況下的水力計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行模擬,驗(yàn)證計(jì)算結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性。 最后基于狀態(tài)空間法建立可靠度基本模型,此可靠度模型是功能質(zhì)量指標(biāo),包括設(shè)計(jì)負(fù)荷可靠度指標(biāo)和限額供氣可靠度指標(biāo),這兩個(gè)指標(biāo)是用來綜合評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)的可靠性。此外,還提出將應(yīng)力-強(qiáng)度干涉理論的思想引入供氣可靠性評(píng)價(jià)當(dāng)中,將市場需求量視為應(yīng)力,管網(wǎng)供氣量視為強(qiáng)度,將兩者的概率分布相干涉,可用蒙特卡洛法計(jì)算管網(wǎng)的供氣可靠度。 綜上,天然氣管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的綜合可靠性評(píng)價(jià)通過重構(gòu)故障管網(wǎng)、故障工況下的水力計(jì)算和供氣可靠度指標(biāo)的計(jì)算完成。
[Abstract]:Natural gas is a new fossil energy with the advantages of cleanliness and high efficiency. It is an important way to optimize the energy structure of the world in the new century. Among the many transportation modes, pipeline is the best choice for large-scale transportation of natural gas. The natural gas resources of our country are all over the north and south, the natural gas market is not concentrated, the geographical environment along the pipeline is complex, the ecological sensitivity is high, and the user's demand is diverse. Therefore, the natural gas pipeline in our country undertakes the biggest transportation task and pressure. But the redundancy of pipe network system is the least. Combined with all kinds of factors, natural gas pipeline network in China has become the most complicated and arduous gas transmission network system in the world. As the key factor of natural gas transportation, the role of natural gas pipeline network is self-evident, and the quality of gas field manufacturing and gas supply is also directly related to the quality of the pipeline network. The natural gas pipeline network system needs very high security and extremely stable gas transmission capacity. Therefore, it is necessary to integrate the system reliability into the whole process of pipe network planning, design, operation and maintenance, and to realize the comprehensive and thorough control of the reliability of the pipeline system and the interaction between units, which is the inevitable requirement of the development of natural gas pipeline network in China. In this paper, the reliability of natural gas pipeline network system is studied on the basis of analyzing the hydraulic condition of the network system under the malfunction condition. In the comprehensive evaluation of the reliability of natural gas pipeline network system, the topology structure under the fault condition of the pipeline network should be studied first. According to the topology structure under the fault condition and the basic hydraulic calculation model, the flow distribution under the fault condition should be calculated. Finally, the reliability index is calculated according to the calculated flow results. The first step is to establish the correlation matrix of the plane pipe network and the hybrid correlation matrix which can reflect the valve information. The matrix method is used to transform the plane pipe network into the valve network model. According to the valve network model and its correlation matrix, it is possible to directly search the exit and break area, and then to formulate the closing valve scheme corresponding to the fault components, and to reconstruct the fault network by searching all the connected subgraphs of the plane pipe network when the fault is isolated. According to the related properties of natural gas flowing in pipeline, the basic model of hydraulic calculation of natural gas pipeline network is established. According to the nodal equation method and the basic knowledge of graph theory, the hydraulic calculation program of pipeline network is compiled by using MATLAB software. Based on the basic model of hydraulic calculation and the topological structure of the fault pipe network, the hydraulic analysis model of the fault condition of the pipe network system is established. The TGNET software is used to simulate the hydraulic calculation results under the fault condition, and the accuracy of the calculation results is verified. Finally, the basic reliability model is established based on the state space method. The reliability model is the function quality index, including the design load reliability index and the quota gas supply reliability index, which are used to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of the system. In addition, the idea of stress-strength interference theory is introduced into the reliability evaluation of gas supply. The market demand is regarded as stress, the gas supply in pipe network is regarded as intensity, and the probability distribution of both is interfered. The reliability of gas supply can be calculated by Monte Carlo method. To sum up, the comprehensive reliability evaluation of natural gas network system is accomplished by reconstructing the fault network, calculating the hydraulic calculation under the fault condition and calculating the reliability index of the gas supply.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE832

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