【摘要】：非常規(guī)油氣資源作為最現(xiàn)實(shí)的可替代能源備受各國(guó)政府和企業(yè)的高度關(guān)注,對(duì)其進(jìn)行勘探和開(kāi)發(fā)對(duì)于降低日益加大的石油供需矛盾缺口和確保國(guó)家能源安全具有重大戰(zhàn)略意義。然而,由于非常規(guī)油氣資源的特殊性及決策過(guò)程的復(fù)雜性,目前在常規(guī)油氣中普遍采用的基于人工經(jīng)驗(yàn)和靜態(tài)的處理方法已不能滿(mǎn)足其勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策的動(dòng)態(tài)性、復(fù)雜性和不確定性,決策方案的科學(xué)性和有效性亟待加強(qiáng)。針對(duì)非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策這一難題,以提高投資決策方案的科學(xué)性、動(dòng)態(tài)性和實(shí)用性為目標(biāo),運(yùn)用石油工程管理、運(yùn)籌學(xué)、決策科學(xué)以及控制論等領(lǐng)域相關(guān)的理論與方法,按照“非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策的復(fù)雜性分析→投資決策優(yōu)化模型的構(gòu)建→復(fù)雜優(yōu)化模型的求解”這一研究思路,重點(diǎn)開(kāi)展以下研究工作：(1)非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策過(guò)程及其復(fù)雜性分析。剖析非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策過(guò)程并總結(jié)提煉呈現(xiàn)的結(jié)構(gòu)特征,結(jié)合非常規(guī)油氣資源特殊性,深入分析其投資決策問(wèn)題的多階段、多目標(biāo)、多屬性以及不確定性等復(fù)雜性影響因素,為非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策問(wèn)題的形式化表達(dá)奠定基礎(chǔ)。(2)非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策優(yōu)化模型的構(gòu)建。簡(jiǎn)化非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策問(wèn)題并研究投資決策問(wèn)題的形式化表達(dá)方法,依據(jù)勘探開(kāi)發(fā)序列投資的分層遞階結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn),建立多目標(biāo)動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化模型以確定勘探活動(dòng)和開(kāi)發(fā)活動(dòng)的投資規(guī)模、建立不確定條件下的動(dòng)態(tài)多屬性決策模型以指明勘探投資的方向和優(yōu)先次序、并依據(jù)不同石油企業(yè)的目標(biāo)需求,分別建立開(kāi)發(fā)投資的多階段多目標(biāo)決策優(yōu)化模型和開(kāi)發(fā)投資組合的多階段決策優(yōu)化模型,從而輔助石油企業(yè)優(yōu)化非常規(guī)油氣上游業(yè)務(wù)的戰(zhàn)略投資決策。(3)非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策優(yōu)化模型的求解方法。非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)整體投資屬于多階段、多目標(biāo)、多屬性的優(yōu)化決策問(wèn)題,模型十分復(fù)雜,求解困難,本研究根據(jù)分層遞階決策問(wèn)題的邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)求解方法,把整體復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)模型問(wèn)題簡(jiǎn)化為序列子問(wèn)題的數(shù)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行求解,依據(jù)所求解子問(wèn)題優(yōu)先級(jí)的先后次序,引入序貫式算法的求解思路并利用改進(jìn)的動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃逆序解法進(jìn)行決策優(yōu)化模型的依次求解。(4)非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探投資和開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策優(yōu)化的算例研究。針對(duì)某石油企業(yè)進(jìn)行頁(yè)巖油氣勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策問(wèn)題,運(yùn)用本研究中構(gòu)建的非常規(guī)油氣勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策優(yōu)化模型和算法,完成該問(wèn)題從復(fù)雜性分析→模型構(gòu)建→模型求解的處理過(guò)程,開(kāi)展對(duì)本研究所構(gòu)建模型和求解方法的可行性和有效性驗(yàn)證并在計(jì)算機(jī)中加以實(shí)現(xiàn),同時(shí)根據(jù)算例分析結(jié)果給出非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策建議。本研究是運(yùn)籌學(xué)、決策科學(xué)和控制論等學(xué)科理論和方法的交叉與融合,為解決非常規(guī)油氣資源勘探開(kāi)發(fā)投資決策方案生成的科學(xué)性和有效性進(jìn)行了積極的探索。其研究成果結(jié)合現(xiàn)場(chǎng)實(shí)際進(jìn)展情況和現(xiàn)場(chǎng)專(zhuān)家知識(shí)經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷,不但能促使我國(guó)非常規(guī)油氣資源早日實(shí)現(xiàn)商業(yè)化和產(chǎn)業(yè)化開(kāi)發(fā),還有助于深化不確定條件下多階段、多目標(biāo)、多屬性復(fù)雜優(yōu)化決策問(wèn)題的研究。
[Abstract]:As the most realistic alternative energy, unconventional oil and gas resources are highly concerned by governments and enterprises, and it is of great strategic significance to explore and develop the gap between the supply and demand of oil and supply and to ensure the national energy security. However, due to the particularity of the unconventional oil and gas resources and the complexity of the decision-making process, the artificial experience and the static processing method that are widely used in the conventional oil and gas have not met the dynamic, complexity and uncertainty of the investment decision of the exploration and development. The scientificity and validity of the decision-making scheme need to be strengthened. Aiming at the difficult problem of the exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources, this paper aims at improving the scientific, dynamic and practical application of the investment decision-making scheme, and applies the theories and methods in the fields of petroleum engineering management, operational research, decision-making science and cybernetics. According to the 鈥淭he Complexity Analysis of the Investment Decision of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources Exploration and Development and the Construction of the Optimization Model of the Investment Decision-making and the Solution of the Complex Optimization Model鈥，

本文編號(hào)：2389023