【摘要】：我國煉油業(yè)經(jīng)過幾十年的發(fā)展已取得了比較明顯的成果,但目前仍存在一些問題。比較突出的問題是無序發(fā)展,一些企業(yè)為搶占市場(chǎng),收購地方煉廠進(jìn)行改擴(kuò)建,這些情況不利于煉油行業(yè)的合理布局,導(dǎo)致了煉油能力過剩。同時(shí),隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),成品油需求增速放緩,并且隨著汽車保有量迅速增加及人們環(huán)保意識(shí)的提高,石油質(zhì)燃料消耗所產(chǎn)生的空氣污染和二氧化碳排放等問題日益受到關(guān)注。為了緩解能源危機(jī),減少二氧化碳排放,車用替代燃料發(fā)展得到了政府推動(dòng)和政策扶持,發(fā)展迅猛。毫無疑問如果煉油業(yè)忽視這些環(huán)境要素的變化,投產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目仍盲目增加并達(dá)到高峰產(chǎn)能,全國汽柴油必將會(huì)供大于求,導(dǎo)致煉油廠出現(xiàn)大量資產(chǎn)閑置,效益不佳甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)關(guān)停的局面。因此正視車用替代燃料對(duì)我國煉油業(yè)的影響,量化車用替代燃料在汽柴油產(chǎn)量及原油加工量等方面對(duì)于煉油業(yè)的影響,在新的形勢(shì)下調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),合理規(guī)劃產(chǎn)能進(jìn)而促進(jìn)我國煉油業(yè)繼續(xù)健康的發(fā)展將具有十分重要的意義。首先,通過介紹論文的研究背景和國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,揭示出論文研究的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。其次,分析了我國車用替代燃料和煉油業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及趨勢(shì)。再次,運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型及脈沖影響函數(shù)等分別對(duì)車用替代燃料在汽柴油產(chǎn)量、原油加工量和原油加工能力方面對(duì)煉油業(yè)的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析:在研究車用替代燃料對(duì)汽柴油產(chǎn)量和原油加工量的影響時(shí),以一系列檢驗(yàn)(單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn))為基礎(chǔ),建立了向量自回歸模型,并在模型的基礎(chǔ)上,利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)研究車用替代燃料的沖擊對(duì)汽柴油產(chǎn)量和原油加工量的影響,利用方差分解方法分析評(píng)價(jià)不同結(jié)構(gòu)沖擊的重要性,并以此為基礎(chǔ)對(duì)車用替代燃料替代量、汽柴油產(chǎn)量、原油加工量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),量化我國車用替代燃料對(duì)煉油業(yè)的影響;在研究車用替代燃料對(duì)原油加工能力的影響時(shí),根據(jù)原油加工量的預(yù)測(cè)值和合理的煉廠開工率,對(duì)原油加工能力提出了合理化的預(yù)測(cè)。最后,根據(jù)實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果從原油加工能力、原油加工量和汽柴油產(chǎn)量三個(gè)方面為煉油業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)車用替代燃料的快速發(fā)展提出相關(guān)對(duì)策建議,以期為我國煉油業(yè)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),合理規(guī)劃產(chǎn)能提供一些借鑒及參考。
[Abstract]:After decades of development, China's oil refining industry has made obvious achievements, but there are still some problems. In order to seize the market, some enterprises buy local refineries for reconstruction and expansion, which is not conducive to the rational layout of the refining industry, resulting in excess refining capacity. At the same time, as China's economy enters the new normal, the growth rate of demand for refined oil products slows down, and with the rapid increase in vehicle holdings and the improvement of people's awareness of environmental protection, Air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions caused by petroleum fuel consumption have attracted more and more attention. In order to alleviate the energy crisis and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the development of alternative fuels for vehicles has been promoted and supported by the government. There is no doubt that if the oil refining industry ignores the changes in these environmental factors and the production projects continue to increase blindly and reach the peak capacity, the national gasoline and diesel oil supply will certainly exceed demand, leading to a large number of idle assets in the refineries. The benefits will not be good and even shut down. Therefore, facing squarely the influence of automobile alternative fuel on China's oil refining industry, quantifying the impact of vehicle alternative fuel on the oil refining industry in terms of gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing capacity, and adjusting the industrial structure under the new situation, It is of great significance to plan production capacity reasonably and promote the development of oil refining industry in China. Firstly, the theoretical and practical significance of the research is revealed by introducing the research background and the current research situation at home and abroad. Secondly, the development status and trend of automobile alternative fuel and oil refining industry in China are analyzed. Thirdly, using the vector autoregressive model and pulse influence function, respectively, the output of vehicle alternative fuel in gasoline and diesel oil is studied. The impact of crude oil processing capacity and crude oil processing capacity on oil refining industry is analyzed empirically. When studying the effects of alternative fuels on gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing capacity, a series of tests (unit root test, cointegration test) are used to study the effects of alternative fuels on gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing capacity. On the basis of stability test and Granger causality test, a vector autoregressive model is established. On the basis of the model, the impulse response function is used to study the impact of alternative fuels on gasoline and diesel production and crude oil processing. The importance of evaluating the impact of different structures is analyzed by variance decomposition method, and on the basis of this, the substitution quantity of vehicle alternative fuel, the output of gasoline and diesel oil and the quantity of crude oil processing are forecasted, and the influence of alternative fuel for vehicle on the oil refining industry in China is quantified. Based on the prediction of crude oil processing capacity and the reasonable operating rate of refinery, the rational prediction of crude oil processing capacity is put forward when studying the effect of vehicle alternative fuel on crude oil processing capacity. Finally, according to the results of the empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the oil refining industry to adjust the industrial structure of the oil refining industry in the light of the three aspects of crude oil processing capacity, crude oil processing capacity and gasoline and diesel output, in order for the oil refining industry to respond to the rapid development of alternative fuels for vehicles. Reasonable planning capacity to provide some reference and reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE626.2;F426.22

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