【摘要】：近幾十年來,含硫氣田發(fā)生過多次井噴事故,給周邊居民、企業(yè)職工的安全健康以及周邊環(huán)境帶來極大危害。公共報(bào)警是井噴事故中為公眾提供保護(hù)的重要措施之一,而傳統(tǒng)的廣域警報(bào)系統(tǒng)影響的范圍過大,容易造成周圍安全區(qū)域內(nèi)居民恐慌。我國(guó)含硫氣井分布區(qū)域具有地理環(huán)境復(fù)雜,居民居住分散,有線通訊網(wǎng)絡(luò)脆弱等特點(diǎn),因此,開展含硫氣田井噴事故公共報(bào)警的基礎(chǔ)理論的研究,并據(jù)此研發(fā)一套可靠的可控區(qū)域的無(wú)線公共報(bào)警系統(tǒng),對(duì)于減少人員傷亡,保障快速高效地開展避災(zāi)和救災(zāi)活動(dòng),具有重要的意義。 本文采取理論分析、仿真模擬與案例應(yīng)用、系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)與研發(fā)以及系統(tǒng)效能評(píng)估相結(jié)合的方法,針對(duì)含硫氣田井噴事故,對(duì)公共報(bào)警理論及技術(shù)進(jìn)行了研究。 通過理論分析,基于區(qū)域疏散中人員的時(shí)空分布規(guī)律,建立了基于交通疏散網(wǎng)絡(luò)和社會(huì)關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)的分戶警報(bào)傳播的雙層網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。然后引入人體脆弱性模型,提出了含硫氣田井噴事故疏散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量評(píng)價(jià)方法,并據(jù)此建立了公共報(bào)警系統(tǒng)警報(bào)接收端部署的雙目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型(BOPM),并基于貪婪策略設(shè)計(jì)了可獲得BOPM問題較好可行解的實(shí)用算法。最后運(yùn)用運(yùn)籌學(xué)中圖論及多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化的理論和方法建立了應(yīng)急路徑的多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型(MOOP),基于啟發(fā)式思想提出了適合求解該模型的靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)算法,并詳細(xì)分析了算法的終止條件、時(shí)間復(fù)雜度及算法優(yōu)勢(shì)。 通過對(duì)分戶警報(bào)傳播模型的仿真模擬,分析得出可用疏散時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)或警報(bào)接收設(shè)備部署比例越高,報(bào)警效果越好,而相同的報(bào)警效果下,社會(huì)關(guān)系越緊密,需要部署的警報(bào)接收設(shè)備數(shù)量越少；通過對(duì)BOPM模型的應(yīng)用實(shí)例分析表明,在降低部署成本和緩解道路擁塞水平方面,本文提出的優(yōu)化部署方法比傳統(tǒng)的平均部署方法更具優(yōu)越性；通過對(duì)MOOP模型及其算法的隨機(jī)路網(wǎng)和真實(shí)路網(wǎng)測(cè)試,得出了MOOP模型及算法在實(shí)際的應(yīng)急路徑?jīng)Q策問題中可行且有效,適宜作為含硫氣田井噴事故公共報(bào)警系統(tǒng)中警報(bào)文本信息生成的底層算法。 在前述理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文基于分址調(diào)頻廣播技術(shù)對(duì)含硫氣田井噴事故公共報(bào)警系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行研發(fā),給出了系統(tǒng)發(fā)射端分布式軟件系統(tǒng)、接收端硬件和嵌入式軟件的設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)方案,最后建立了系統(tǒng)效能評(píng)估的Queuing模型、Deadline模型和Probit模型及其指標(biāo)體系研究,從而為含硫氣田公共報(bào)警系統(tǒng)的搭建、改進(jìn)與優(yōu)化提供了技術(shù)支持。
[Abstract]:In recent decades, there have been many blowout accidents in sulfur-containing gas fields, which bring great harm to the safety and health of the surrounding residents, employees and the surrounding environment. Public alarm is one of the important measures to protect the public in well blowout accidents, but the traditional wide area alarm system has too large an impact, which can easily cause panic in the surrounding safety area. The distribution area of sulfur-bearing gas wells in China is characterized by complex geographical environment, scattered residents, fragile wired communication network, etc. Therefore, the basic theory of public alarm for well blowout accidents in sulfur-bearing gas fields is studied. Therefore, it is of great significance to develop a reliable wireless public alarm system in controllable areas for reducing casualties and ensuring rapid and efficient disaster avoidance and disaster relief activities. Based on the methods of theoretical analysis, simulation and case application, system design and research and development, and evaluation of system effectiveness, this paper studies the theory and technology of public alarm for well blowout accidents in sulfur-bearing gas fields. Based on the temporal and spatial distribution of personnel in regional evacuation, a two-layer network model of alarm propagation based on traffic evacuation network and social network is established by theoretical analysis. Then, by introducing the human body vulnerability model, a quantitative evaluation method for evacuation risk of well blowout accident in sulfur-bearing gas field is put forward. Based on this, a two-objective optimization model (BOPM),) for alarm receiver deployment in a public alarm system is established. Based on greedy strategy, a practical algorithm is designed to obtain a better feasible solution to the BOPM problem. Finally, by using the theory and method of graph and multi-objective optimization in operational research, the multi-objective optimization model of emergency path is established. Based on the heuristic idea, a static and dynamic algorithm is proposed to solve the model. The termination condition, the time complexity and the advantages of the algorithm are analyzed in detail. Through the simulation of the alarm propagation model, it is concluded that the longer the evacuation time is available or the higher the proportion of alarm receiving equipment is, the better the alarm effect is, and the closer the social relationship is under the same alarm effect. The fewer alarm receiving devices need to be deployed, the analysis of the application examples of BOPM model shows that, in reducing deployment cost and reducing road congestion level, The optimal deployment method proposed in this paper is superior to the traditional average deployment method, and the random road network and real road network test of MOOP model and its algorithm are carried out. It is concluded that the MOOP model and algorithm are feasible and effective in the practical emergency path decision problem, which is suitable for the bottom algorithm of generating alarm text information in the public alarm system of well blowout accidents in sulfur-bearing gas fields. On the basis of the above theoretical analysis, this paper develops a public alarm system for well blowout accidents in sulfuric gas fields based on the technology of addressable frequency modulation broadcasting, and presents a distributed software system at the launching end of the system. The design and implementation of the receiver hardware and embedded software are presented. Finally, the Queuing model, the Probit model and the index system of the system effectiveness evaluation are established, so as to set up the public alarm system for the sulfur-containing gas field. Technical support is provided for improvement and optimization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE28

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