【摘要】：為合理評價老齡油氣管道的安全運行狀態(tài),降低老齡管道運行風(fēng)險,基于安全系統(tǒng)理論提出一種安全壽命綜合評估方法。首先,通過事故樹分析辨識老齡油氣管道系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險因素,從管道內(nèi)檢測、管道外檢測、壓力試驗、修復(fù)和承壓狀況5個方面建立管道安全壽命評價指標(biāo)體系;然后,采用層次分析法計算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,并基于模糊集理論和灰色理論預(yù)測管道安全壽命;最后,以國內(nèi)某一管道為例證明該方法工程應(yīng)用的可行性。結(jié)果表明,該方法能夠較為全面評估老齡油氣管道的安全壽命,評估結(jié)果符合工程實際情況,具有較高應(yīng)用價值,能夠為國內(nèi)老齡油氣管道的安全壽命評價與風(fēng)險決策提供技術(shù)支持。
[Abstract]:In order to reasonably evaluate the safe operation state of aged oil and gas pipelines and reduce the operational risk of aging pipelines, a comprehensive evaluation method of safety life is proposed based on the theory of safety system. Firstly, the risk factors of aged oil and gas pipeline system are identified by accident tree analysis, and the evaluation index system of pipeline safety life is established from five aspects: pipeline inner detection, pipeline outer detection, pressure test, repair and pressure condition. The index weight is calculated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the safety life of pipeline is predicted based on fuzzy set theory and grey theory. Finally, a domestic pipeline is taken as an example to prove the feasibility of engineering application of this method. The results show that this method can comprehensively evaluate the safety life of aged oil and gas pipelines, and the evaluation results are in line with the actual engineering conditions and have a higher application value. It can provide technical support for safety life evaluation and risk decision of domestic aged oil and gas pipeline.
【作者單位】： 中國石油大學(xué)海洋油氣裝備與安全技術(shù)研究中心;中國石油管道分公司管道完整性管理中心;
【分類號】：TE88
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本文編號：2121677