本文選題：伊朗 + IPC合同　； 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)》2017年S2期

【摘要】：自2015年以來(lái),伊朗政府為解決回購(gòu)合同模式合作的局限性問題,陸續(xù)向外界推出新石油合同作為油氣對(duì)外合作新模式,一定程度上降低了合同者超工期、超投資、生產(chǎn)操作權(quán)等風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但回購(gòu)合同監(jiān)管思維根深蒂固。本文結(jié)合新版合同及財(cái)稅條款,回顧伊朗對(duì)外合同歷程,梳理新石油合同特征,為國(guó)際投資者談判、執(zhí)行合同提供決策參考。以南帕斯某大型氣田為案例,假定并選取各項(xiàng)參數(shù),運(yùn)用折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流法,計(jì)算合同者投資效益,結(jié)果顯示,合同者投資效益相對(duì)樂觀、資金風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低、油價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低。新合同模式下,進(jìn)一步開展不確定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,建設(shè)期、合同期內(nèi)投資、氣產(chǎn)量、油價(jià)波動(dòng)、DCC攤銷期、操作費(fèi)和利率是依次影響合同者效益的關(guān)鍵因素。合同者可通過加快建設(shè)工期、節(jié)約投資、控制成本獲取高額收益,但承擔(dān)超工期、超投資、費(fèi)用增加對(duì)效益的侵蝕。合同者分享油田生產(chǎn)的長(zhǎng)期收益,更有動(dòng)力選擇短期增產(chǎn)以提高自身效益。合同者可從高油價(jià)中分享部分超額收益,低油價(jià)下虧損的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)較低。合同者在投資攤銷期和回收上限之間權(quán)衡時(shí),更愿意去加快投資回收。
[Abstract]:Since 2015, in order to solve the limitation of cooperation in the repo contract model, the Iranian government has successively introduced new oil contracts to the outside world as a new model for oil and gas cooperation with foreign countries. To a certain extent, the Iranian government has reduced the contractor's time limit and investment. Production operation right and other risks, but repo contract regulatory thinking deep-rooted. This paper reviews the history of Iran's foreign contracts, combs the characteristics of new oil contracts, and provides a reference for international investors to negotiate and execute contracts. A case of a large gas field in South Perth assumes and selects various parameters and calculates the investment benefit of the contractor by using the method of discounted cash flow. The results show that the investment benefit of the contractor is relatively optimistic, the risk of capital is lower and the risk of oil price is lower. Under the new contract model, uncertainty risk analysis, construction period, investment in contract period, gas output, fluctuation of oil price and DCC amortization period, operating cost and interest rate are the key factors that affect the benefit of the contractor in turn. By speeding up the construction period, saving the investment and controlling the cost, the contractor can obtain the high profit, but assume the excess time limit, exceed the investment, and increase the cost to the erosion of the benefit. Contractors share long-term benefits from oil production and are more motivated to increase production in the short term. Contractors can share some of the excess gains from high oil prices, and the risk of losses at low oil prices is relatively low. The contractor is more willing to speed up the return on the trade-off between the amortization period and the return limit.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)石油勘探開發(fā)研究院;中國(guó)石油中東公司;中國(guó)石油川慶鉆探工程有限公司地質(zhì)勘探開發(fā)研究院;中化石油勘探開發(fā)有限公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家科技重大專項(xiàng)課題“海外油氣投資環(huán)境評(píng)估與勘探資產(chǎn)評(píng)價(jià)”資助(編號(hào):2016ZX05029-003)
【分類號(hào)】：F114.4;F416.22

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