本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于層次分析法和模糊綜合評價模型的中國石油安全預(yù)警研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

基于層次分析法和模糊綜合評價模型的中國石油安全預(yù)警研究

A Study on China＇s Oil Security Pre-warning Based on AHP and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model

[1] [2]

Fan Qiufang ,Zhao Yali （China University of Petroleum ,Qingdao Shandong 266580）

中國石油大學(xué)(華東)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院,山東青島266580

文章摘要：建立完善的中國石油安全預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，對瞬息萬變的國際石油市場的運行監(jiān)測及時采取應(yīng)對措施，有利于提高中國石油安全水平，進而有效促進我國經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定。在對我國石油安全狀況調(diào)查、分析的基礎(chǔ)上，選取能夠比較全面反映石油安全預(yù)警的主要指標，確定第一層指標為石油市場、資源稟賦、石油需求、石油進口4大類，第二層指標包括石油價格、油價波動率、國際市場的石油可獲得性等13個指標。通過將層次分析法與模糊綜合評價模型結(jié)合起來．構(gòu)建我國石油安全預(yù)警指標體系并進行預(yù)警．得出我國石油安全非常脆弱的結(jié)論，迫切要求實時監(jiān)控各類影響因素，尤其要對石油儲采比、油價波動率、石油價格以及對外依存度等因素給予更多關(guān)注。提出了提高中國石油安全對策及建議：深化石油安全預(yù)警研究，建立統(tǒng)一管理機制；積極參與國際市場，爭取國際石油定價話語權(quán)；完善戰(zhàn)略石油儲備體系，，避免受制于人；優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)，加快開發(fā)新能源；積極開展國際合作，優(yōu)化地緣政治環(huán)境。

Abstr：A well-functioning oil security pre-warning system can help China monitor the ever-changing in- ternational oil market,allowing the adoption of countermeasures in a timely manner.This helps in improving China＇s oil security,in turn giving a boost to sustainable economic growth and social stability.On the basis of surveys and analysis of China＇s national oil security,this article has selected several key indicators to well reflect oil security pre-warning.There are four groups of first-tier indicators--oil market,resource endowment, oil demand,and oil import--and the second-tier indicators include 13 indicators such as oil price,oil price fluctuation rate,and the accessibility of oil in the international market.By combing the analytic hierarchy pro- cess （AHP） and the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model,the authors of this article established an oil security pre-warning indicator system for China and concluded,through pre-warning operation,that China＇s oil security is highly fragile and that the country badly needs to monitor all affecting factors,particularly the reserve to production ratio,oil price fluctuation rate,oil price,and reliance on imported oil.The articles propose some countermeasures and suggestions on improving the national oil security,including strengthening oil security pre-warning studies, establishing a unified management system,actively taking part in international market ac- tivities ,trying to win the right to set international oil prices ,improving strategic oil reserve to reduce reliance on imports ,optimizing energy mix by quickening the development of ahemative energy sources ,and strengthening international cooperation to improve geopolitical environment.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:oil security pre-warning indicator analytic hierarchy process fuzzy evaluation

課題項目：山東省社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃項目（項目編號：12CJJJ13）;中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金資助項目《油價波動下中國石油安全預(yù)警研究》,（項目編號：14CX06023B）.

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于層次分析法和模糊綜合評價模型的中國石油安全預(yù)警研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。