基于概率可靠度的人員安全疏散不確定性問題研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-04-19 22:47
【摘要】：火災(zāi)發(fā)生后,如何確保人員的生命安全是最值得關(guān)注的問題,也是首要的安全目標(biāo)�；馂�(zāi)的發(fā)生和發(fā)展具有著雙重性的規(guī)律,人員安全疏散同樣具有確定性和不確定性的雙重特點(diǎn)。由于人員安全疏散的影響因素眾多,存在著很多的不確定性,因此如何正確處理這些不確定性是需要深入研究的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)問題。本文是利用概率可靠度的方法對人員安全疏散的不確定性問題進(jìn)行研究,通過本文的研究,對于提高火災(zāi)環(huán)境下的人員安全疏散具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文從人員特征、建筑結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)和火源情況三個方面系統(tǒng)分析了建筑火災(zāi)人員安全疏散的不確定性影響因素。有效集成了DEMATEL和ISM兩種方法。運(yùn)用ISM方法構(gòu)建了建筑火災(zāi)人員安全疏散影響因素的結(jié)構(gòu)化模型,分析了影響人員安全疏散的表層原因、淺層原因和深層原因。利用DEMATEL方法對人員安全疏散的影響因素進(jìn)行了定量分析,同時(shí)對人員安全疏散的影響因素進(jìn)行了數(shù)學(xué)表征。分析了各因素之間的綜合影響關(guān)系及各因素對人員安全疏散的影響程度,找到了影響人員安全疏散的關(guān)鍵影響因素。該研究可以為相關(guān)部門的管理和決策提供一定的科學(xué)依據(jù)。 探討了表征人員疏散安全水平的基本理論和方法,通過比對可用安全疏散時(shí)間和必需安全疏散時(shí)間,引入安全時(shí)間余量來表征人員疏散的安全水平,通過求解概率可靠度指標(biāo)和失效概率來定量評價(jià)人員疏散的安全情況。通過正交試驗(yàn)、響應(yīng)面法建立了以煙氣層溫度和煙氣層高度分別作為判據(jù)的可用安全疏散時(shí)間的隨機(jī)模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了以煙氣層溫度和煙氣層高度分別作為判據(jù)的人員安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型,研究了兩個可靠度分析模型之間的串并聯(lián)關(guān)系,提出了根據(jù)兩者之間的串并聯(lián)關(guān)系求解多種模式失效下的體系失效概率的計(jì)算方法。 介紹了用于求解概率可靠度指標(biāo)的常用計(jì)算方法,均值一次二階矩法、改進(jìn)的一次二階矩法、當(dāng)量正態(tài)化法和蒙特卡羅方法。分析了各種方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)及適用范圍,針對其他方法存在的不足,在前人基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展了用于求解概率可靠度指標(biāo)的優(yōu)化算法,利用兩個人員安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型加以實(shí)例進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。另外就本文所建的概率可靠度分析模型和已有模型進(jìn)行了對比研究。同時(shí),研究了火災(zāi)增長系數(shù)、建筑高度和安全出口寬度對可靠度指標(biāo)和失效概率的影響關(guān)系。 引入了可靠性靈敏度和靈敏度梯度的理論和方法,通過實(shí)例分析了人員安全疏散各個影響因素的靈敏度,通過失效概率對均值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的偏導(dǎo)數(shù),研究了火災(zāi)增長系數(shù)、人員響應(yīng)時(shí)間、人員密度和門的出口涌流能力參數(shù)的分布情況對人員安全疏散的影響關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:After the fire, how to ensure the safety of personnel is the most important issue and the primary safety goal. The occurrence and development of fire is dualistic, and the safety evacuation is also characterized by certainty and uncertainty. Because there are many influencing factors and uncertainties in evacuation, how to deal with these uncertainties correctly is a key technical problem that needs to be studied in depth. In this paper, the method of probabilistic reliability is used to study the uncertainty of evacuation. Through the study of this paper, it is of great significance to improve the safety of evacuation in fire environment. In this paper, the uncertain factors affecting the safety evacuation of building fire personnel are systematically analyzed from the aspects of personnel characteristics, building structure characteristics and fire sources. The two methods, DEMATEL and ISM, are effectively integrated. The structural model of influencing factors of safety evacuation of building fire personnel is constructed by using ISM method, and the surface cause, shallow cause and deep cause of influencing safety evacuation of building fire are analyzed. In this paper, the DEMATEL method is used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel, and the mathematical representation of the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of the personnel is carried out at the same time. This paper analyzes the comprehensive influence relationship among the factors and the influence degree of each factor on the safety evacuation of personnel, and finds out the key influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel. This research can provide certain scientific basis for the management and decision-making of relevant departments. The basic theory and method to characterize the safety level of personnel evacuation are discussed. The safety level of personnel evacuation is characterized by comparing the available safety evacuation time with the necessary safety evacuation time, and introducing the safety time allowance to represent the safety level of personnel evacuation. The safety of evacuation is quantitatively evaluated by solving the probabilistic reliability index and failure probability. By means of orthogonal test and response surface method, a random model of available safe evacuation time is established, which is based on the smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height as the criterions respectively. On the basis of this, the probabilistic reliability analysis model of personnel safety evacuation based on smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height is constructed, and the series-parallel relationship between the two reliability analysis models is studied. Based on the series-parallel relationship between the two systems, a method is proposed to calculate the failure probability of the system under various modes of failure. In this paper, the common calculation methods for probabilistic reliability index are introduced, such as the mean first second moment method, the improved first second order moment method, the equivalent normal method and the Monte Carlo method. The advantages and disadvantages of each method and its application range are analyzed. In view of the shortcomings of other methods, an optimization algorithm for solving probabilistic reliability index is developed on the basis of predecessors. It is verified by two probabilistic reliability analysis models of safety evacuation. In addition, the probabilistic reliability analysis model established in this paper is compared with the existing model. At the same time, the effects of fire growth coefficient, building height and safety exit width on reliability index and failure probability are studied. In this paper, the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced, and the sensitivity of each influencing factor of safety evacuation is analyzed by an example. The fire growth coefficient is studied by the partial derivative of failure probability to mean value and standard deviation, and the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced in this paper. The influence of the distribution of personnel response time, personnel density and gate outlet inrush capacity parameters on the safety evacuation of personnel.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU998.1
本文編號：2461358
[Abstract]:After the fire, how to ensure the safety of personnel is the most important issue and the primary safety goal. The occurrence and development of fire is dualistic, and the safety evacuation is also characterized by certainty and uncertainty. Because there are many influencing factors and uncertainties in evacuation, how to deal with these uncertainties correctly is a key technical problem that needs to be studied in depth. In this paper, the method of probabilistic reliability is used to study the uncertainty of evacuation. Through the study of this paper, it is of great significance to improve the safety of evacuation in fire environment. In this paper, the uncertain factors affecting the safety evacuation of building fire personnel are systematically analyzed from the aspects of personnel characteristics, building structure characteristics and fire sources. The two methods, DEMATEL and ISM, are effectively integrated. The structural model of influencing factors of safety evacuation of building fire personnel is constructed by using ISM method, and the surface cause, shallow cause and deep cause of influencing safety evacuation of building fire are analyzed. In this paper, the DEMATEL method is used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel, and the mathematical representation of the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of the personnel is carried out at the same time. This paper analyzes the comprehensive influence relationship among the factors and the influence degree of each factor on the safety evacuation of personnel, and finds out the key influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel. This research can provide certain scientific basis for the management and decision-making of relevant departments. The basic theory and method to characterize the safety level of personnel evacuation are discussed. The safety level of personnel evacuation is characterized by comparing the available safety evacuation time with the necessary safety evacuation time, and introducing the safety time allowance to represent the safety level of personnel evacuation. The safety of evacuation is quantitatively evaluated by solving the probabilistic reliability index and failure probability. By means of orthogonal test and response surface method, a random model of available safe evacuation time is established, which is based on the smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height as the criterions respectively. On the basis of this, the probabilistic reliability analysis model of personnel safety evacuation based on smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height is constructed, and the series-parallel relationship between the two reliability analysis models is studied. Based on the series-parallel relationship between the two systems, a method is proposed to calculate the failure probability of the system under various modes of failure. In this paper, the common calculation methods for probabilistic reliability index are introduced, such as the mean first second moment method, the improved first second order moment method, the equivalent normal method and the Monte Carlo method. The advantages and disadvantages of each method and its application range are analyzed. In view of the shortcomings of other methods, an optimization algorithm for solving probabilistic reliability index is developed on the basis of predecessors. It is verified by two probabilistic reliability analysis models of safety evacuation. In addition, the probabilistic reliability analysis model established in this paper is compared with the existing model. At the same time, the effects of fire growth coefficient, building height and safety exit width on reliability index and failure probability are studied. In this paper, the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced, and the sensitivity of each influencing factor of safety evacuation is analyzed by an example. The fire growth coefficient is studied by the partial derivative of failure probability to mean value and standard deviation, and the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced in this paper. The influence of the distribution of personnel response time, personnel density and gate outlet inrush capacity parameters on the safety evacuation of personnel.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU998.1
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