【摘要】：集成風(fēng)險管理已成為風(fēng)險管理發(fā)展的新趨勢和新方向,但國內(nèi)外對其在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目領(lǐng)域的研究和應(yīng)用尚處于起步階段。研究如何采用集成風(fēng)險管理方法管理海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目中的各種風(fēng)險,有助于中國承包商開拓并立足國際基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目建設(shè)市場。 本文首先根據(jù)海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段的項目特點總結(jié)出海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段包括多樣性、多層次性在內(nèi)的11個風(fēng)險特點,并由此引出集成風(fēng)險管理概念,指出了集成風(fēng)險管理的必要性。 其次,針對海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC總承包項目實施階段風(fēng)險產(chǎn)生的過程特點,提出了海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段的集成風(fēng)險管理流程,此流程由風(fēng)險管理規(guī)劃、風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險分析、風(fēng)險應(yīng)對、風(fēng)險監(jiān)控、風(fēng)險管理評審6個階段構(gòu)成。在流程運用中采用核對表法對海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段面臨的各種風(fēng)險進行了初步識別,總結(jié)出了中國承包商海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC總承包項目實施階段的風(fēng)險類別和清單,共識別出技術(shù)風(fēng)險、相關(guān)方風(fēng)險等6大風(fēng)險類別,成本超支、設(shè)計失誤等29項具體風(fēng)險因素和現(xiàn)金流缺乏等28項風(fēng)險來源。在風(fēng)險識別的基礎(chǔ)上,利用層次分析法對海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目進行了風(fēng)險分析,給出了海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段風(fēng)險評價的層次分析模型。 再次,為使風(fēng)險管理流程所涉及的6個階段循環(huán)往復(fù)地動起來,實現(xiàn)持續(xù)有效的全方位風(fēng)險管理,本文提出了海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段集成風(fēng)險管理的系統(tǒng)框架和管理措施。系統(tǒng)框架由5個要素構(gòu)成,即風(fēng)險管理目標(biāo)、風(fēng)險管理組織、風(fēng)險管理系統(tǒng)方法、風(fēng)險管理信息系統(tǒng)和風(fēng)險管理文化。 最后,本文分析了國內(nèi)某承包商承建的海外某輕軌項目實施階段的主要風(fēng)險類別,列出了風(fēng)險清單,并采用專家打分法對風(fēng)險了進行評價,給出了項目實施階段的二維風(fēng)險圖,提出了聯(lián)合式集成風(fēng)險管理的組織形式和聯(lián)合式集成風(fēng)險管理的實現(xiàn)模式。 本文不僅對中國承包商海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目實施階段的集成風(fēng)險管理流程、系統(tǒng)框架和管理措施進行了研究,同時結(jié)合具體案例對提出的理論方法進行分析和論證,為中國承包商有效管理海外基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施EPC項目的各種風(fēng)險提供了新思路和新手段,對完善EPC總承包項目風(fēng)險管理的研究起到了積極的推動作用。
[Abstract]:Integrated risk management has become a new trend and direction in the development of risk management, but the research and application of integrated risk management in the field of infrastructure EPC projects at home and abroad is still in the initial stage. The research on how to manage all kinds of risks in overseas infrastructure EPC projects by means of integrated risk management is helpful for Chinese contractors to explore and base themselves on the international infrastructure EPC project construction market. Firstly, according to the project characteristics of overseas infrastructure EPC project implementation phase, this paper summarizes 11 risk characteristics of overseas infrastructure EPC project implementation phase, including diversity and multi-level, and then leads to the concept of integrated risk management. The necessity of integrated risk management is pointed out. Secondly, according to the process characteristics of overseas infrastructure EPC general contracting project, the integrated risk management process in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC project is put forward. This process is based on risk management planning and risk identification. Risk analysis, risk response, risk monitoring, risk management review six stages constitute. In the process application, a checklist method is used to identify the risks in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC projects, and the risk categories and lists of Chinese contractors during the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC general contracting projects are summarized. Six major risk categories, such as technical risk, related party risk, cost overrun, design error, and 28 risk sources, were identified, including 29 specific risk factors such as cost overrun, and 28 risk sources such as lack of cash flow. On the basis of risk identification, the risk analysis of overseas infrastructure EPC project is carried out by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model of risk evaluation in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC project is given. Thirdly, in order to enable the six phases involved in the risk management process to cycle back and forth, and to achieve continuous and effective all-round risk management, This paper puts forward the system framework and management measures of integrated risk management in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC project. The system framework consists of five elements, namely, risk management objective, risk management organization, risk management system methodology, risk management information system and risk management culture. Finally, this paper analyzes the main risk categories of an overseas light rail project undertaken by a domestic contractor, lists the risk list, evaluates the risk by expert scoring method, and gives the two-dimensional risk diagram of the project implementation phase. The organization form of combined integrated risk management and the realization mode of combined integrated risk management are put forward. This paper not only studies the integrated risk management process, system framework and management measures in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC projects of Chinese contractors, but also analyzes and demonstrates the theory and methods put forward in the light of specific cases. It provides a new idea and new means for Chinese contractors to effectively manage various risks of overseas infrastructure EPC projects, and plays an active role in improving the research of risk management of EPC general contracting projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)院大學(xué)(工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU71

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