【摘要】：低碳發(fā)展是近年來全球為了應(yīng)對氣候變化而誕生的新的理念和行動，其核心是減少發(fā)展過程中產(chǎn)生的碳排放。在城市社區(qū)碳排放中，，建筑和交通的碳排放占據(jù)的比重已經(jīng)越來越大。從城市社區(qū)和建設(shè)項目的角度，對碳減排進(jìn)行分析，是建設(shè)工程領(lǐng)域需要迫切解決的問題。 情景分析法在低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃階段具有重要的使用價值，它可以分析和描述低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃的不同情形組合，探尋項目最佳的低碳發(fā)展路徑。利用情景分析法，從建設(shè)項目前期規(guī)劃的角度來研究降低建設(shè)項目碳排放量的措施和方法，具有典型的意義。 本文以低碳城市建設(shè)與社區(qū)規(guī)劃、建設(shè)項目策劃和統(tǒng)計預(yù)測兩個理論為支撐，結(jié)合對情景分析法概念內(nèi)涵、適用對象和應(yīng)用實踐三個方面的深入分析，提出了低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃的情景分析流程，即情景方案設(shè)計、情景概率建模、情景方案描述和情景分析總結(jié)。按此流程對低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃進(jìn)行了情景分析，描述了低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃的最佳理想型、平均水平型和最低限度型三種情景類型，總結(jié)了不同情景碳減排的計算方法，最后從項目土地的集約利用、能源的可持續(xù)利用、居民參與意識和社區(qū)生態(tài)資源循環(huán)鏈四個方面歸納出了低碳建設(shè)項目的規(guī)劃策略。 本文選取了百步亭社區(qū)低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃和單體建筑規(guī)劃兩個案例進(jìn)行了重點研究。通過百步亭社區(qū)低碳建設(shè)項目規(guī)劃案例，識別出了影響社區(qū)低碳發(fā)展的五個核心因素，即經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、低碳發(fā)展政策、低碳建設(shè)技術(shù)、低碳社會意識和周邊環(huán)境影響；通過計算關(guān)鍵事件發(fā)生和組合的概率，得出了社區(qū)低碳發(fā)展最理想化的情景的概率。通過單體建筑規(guī)劃案例，對單體建筑的三種不同低碳情景進(jìn)行了描述和分析，參照基準(zhǔn)建筑計算了不同情景的碳減排量。
[Abstract]:Low-carbon development is a new idea and action to deal with climate change in recent years. The core of low-carbon development is to reduce carbon emissions in the process of development. Construction and transportation account for more and more carbon emissions in urban communities. From the perspective of urban communities and construction projects, the analysis of carbon emission reduction is an urgent problem to be solved in the field of construction engineering. Scenario analysis plays an important role in the planning stage of low-carbon construction project. It can analyze and describe the combination of different situations of low-carbon construction project planning and explore the best low-carbon development path of the project. It is of typical significance to study the measures and methods to reduce the carbon emissions of construction projects from the perspective of the preliminary planning of construction projects by using scenario analysis method. Based on the theories of low-carbon city construction and community planning, construction project planning and statistical prediction, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the concept connotation, applicable object and application practice of scenario analysis method. The scenario analysis process of low carbon construction project planning is put forward, that is, scenario scheme design, scenario probability modeling, scenario scheme description and scenario analysis summary. According to this process, the scenario analysis of low-carbon construction project planning is carried out, the optimal ideal type, average level type and minimum level type of low-carbon construction project planning are described, and the calculation methods of carbon emission reduction in different scenarios are summarized. Finally, the planning strategy of low-carbon construction project is summarized from four aspects: intensive use of project land, sustainable use of energy, awareness of residents' participation and circulation chain of community ecological resources. This paper chooses two cases of low-carbon construction project planning and single building planning of Baibu Pavilion community to carry on the key research. Through the planning case of the low-carbon construction project of the Baibu Pavilion community, five core factors affecting the low-carbon development of the community are identified, that is, the level of economic development, low-carbon development policy, low-carbon construction technology, low-carbon social awareness and the surrounding environmental impact; By calculating the probability of the occurrence and combination of the key events, the probability of the most ideal scenario of low carbon development in the community is obtained. In this paper, three different low carbon scenarios of single building are described and analyzed, and the carbon emission reduction of different scenarios is calculated according to the reference building.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU71;X322

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