【摘要】：城市是人類生產(chǎn)和活動的主要聚居地，城市環(huán)境的舒適與否直接影響著人們對城市生活的滿意度以及城市未來的發(fā)展。20世紀(jì)50年代以來，全球環(huán)境污染和生態(tài)破壞日益嚴(yán)重，使生態(tài)安全問題逐漸被提上議事日程，城市生態(tài)安全問題開始備受矚目。而近年來，隨著城鎮(zhèn)化的快速發(fā)展，城市開始以低密度、非連續(xù)的發(fā)展模式向郊區(qū)蔓延。城市規(guī)模的這種無節(jié)制的擴(kuò)張不僅侵占了周邊的農(nóng)村用地，同時(shí)也使得城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)安全遭受嚴(yán)重的威脅。面對這些問題，，西方國家通過制定城市空間增長邊界（Urban Growth Boundaries，簡稱UGBs），有效地控制了城市的無序擴(kuò)張，保護(hù)了耕地等重要資源。我國城市正處于快速發(fā)展階段，抑制蔓延和維護(hù)生態(tài)安全具有同等重要地位。而國內(nèi)目前關(guān)于UGBs的研究，雖然部分涉及到生態(tài)安全的內(nèi)容，但對于定量地把生態(tài)安全要素融入到UGBs設(shè)定過程的研究仍然較少。鑒于此，論文通過探討UGBs在我國城市空間增長控制與生態(tài)保護(hù)方面的綜合適用性，對生態(tài)安全前提下UGBs的設(shè)定進(jìn)行了定量研究，希望能為未來UGBs的設(shè)定提供參考和借鑒依據(jù)。 論文首先采用文獻(xiàn)研究法分析了國內(nèi)外生態(tài)安全和UGBs的研究成果，運(yùn)用比較分析法梳理并確定了生態(tài)安全預(yù)測方法與UGBs設(shè)定的方法，對生態(tài)安全與UGBs結(jié)合的可行性進(jìn)行了研究，通過對國內(nèi)外UGBs設(shè)定實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)的分析，總結(jié)出當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外UGBs設(shè)定研究的特點(diǎn)與不足；然后，對哈爾濱城市空間演變歷史和未來發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行了闡述與分析，從城市自然條件、社會環(huán)境及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展三個(gè)層面定性分析了UGBs設(shè)定的影響因素，以基于PSR模型的生態(tài)安全評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系為基礎(chǔ)，選取人口密度、人口自然增長率、人均耕地面積等20個(gè)指標(biāo)，利用灰色預(yù)測法建立了哈爾濱中心城區(qū)生態(tài)安全預(yù)測的新陳代謝GM(1,1)模型，預(yù)測出哈爾濱中心城區(qū)的城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)模，為UGBs的設(shè)定奠定了基礎(chǔ)；最后，根據(jù)哈爾濱的實(shí)際情況，應(yīng)用GIS空間分析法對中心城區(qū)土地生態(tài)適宜性進(jìn)行綜合評價(jià)，依據(jù)評價(jià)結(jié)果劃定了哈爾濱中心城區(qū)的禁建區(qū)、限建區(qū)、適建區(qū)和已建區(qū)，從而初步設(shè)定了哈爾濱中心城區(qū)的UGBs，經(jīng)過修正得到UGBs的最終形態(tài)。與《哈爾濱城市總體規(guī)劃》相比，論文設(shè)定的UGBs范圍比總規(guī)設(shè)定的UGBs范圍要小，符合城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的需求。因此，期望通過論文的研究能夠?yàn)榭傄?guī)中UGBs的設(shè)定提供一種新思路，以實(shí)現(xiàn)其抑制城市蔓延和保護(hù)生態(tài)安全的雙重目標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:City is the main settlement of human production and activities, the comfort of urban environment directly affects people's satisfaction with urban life and the future development of the city. Since 1950s, global environmental pollution and ecological destruction have become increasingly serious. The issue of ecological security has been put on the agenda gradually, and the issue of urban ecological security has been attracting much attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization, cities began to spread to the suburbs with low density and discontinuous development mode. The unrestrained expansion of urban scale not only encroaches on the surrounding rural land, but also threatens the security of urban ecosystem. In the face of these problems, western countries effectively control the sprawl of cities and protect important resources such as cultivated land by making the boundary of urban spatial growth (Urban Growth Boundaries, for short UGBs),. China's cities are in a rapid development stage, so it is equally important to control the spread and maintain ecological security. However, although the current research on UGBs in China involves the content of ecological security in part, there is still less research on the quantitative integration of ecological security elements into the process of UGBs setting. In view of this, this paper discusses the comprehensive applicability of UGBs in urban spatial growth control and ecological protection in China, and makes a quantitative study on the setting of UGBs under the premise of ecological security, hoping to provide a reference and reference basis for the establishment of UGBs in the future. Firstly, the paper analyzes the research results of ecological security and UGBs at home and abroad by the method of literature research, combs and determines the method of ecological safety prediction and the method of UGBs setting, and studies the feasibility of the combination of ecological security and UGBs. Based on the analysis of the practical experience of UGBs setting at home and abroad, the characteristics and shortcomings of current domestic and foreign UGBs setting research are summarized. Then, the evolution history and future development direction of Harbin urban space are expounded and analyzed, and the influencing factors of UGBs setting are qualitatively analyzed from three aspects of urban natural condition, social environment and economic development. Based on the ecological security evaluation index system based on PSR model, 20 indexes, such as population density, natural population growth rate and per capita cultivated land area, are selected. The metabolic GM (1 / 1) model of ecological safety prediction in central urban area of Harbin was established by using grey forecasting method, and the scale of urban construction land in central urban area of Harbin was predicted, which laid the foundation for setting up UGBs. Finally, according to the actual situation of Harbin, the land ecological suitability of central urban area is evaluated by using GIS spatial analysis method. According to the evaluation results, the no-building area, restricted construction area, suitable area and built area in central urban area of Harbin are delineated. Therefore, the final shape of UGBs was obtained by modifying the UGBs, of Harbin central city. Compared with "Harbin City Master Plan", the scope of UGBs set in this paper is smaller than that of UGBs set by master rule, which accords with the demand of sustainable development of the city. Therefore, it is expected that the research in this paper can provide a new way of thinking for the setting of UGBs in the master plan, in order to achieve its dual goals of restraining urban spread and protecting ecological security.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU984.113

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