【摘要】：近年來(lái),PPP項(xiàng)目被廣泛應(yīng)用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)領(lǐng)域。PPP項(xiàng)目投資巨大,周期常在十幾年甚至幾十年以上,存在的不確定因素多且影響大；而PPP項(xiàng)目涉及到政府部門(mén)、私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體和民眾三方利益,特許期長(zhǎng)短往往成為PPP項(xiàng)目成敗的關(guān)鍵。已有特許期決策模型對(duì)不確定因素的量化過(guò)于主觀,更科學(xué)地考慮項(xiàng)目不確定因素的特許期決策方法研究,對(duì)PPP項(xiàng)目實(shí)際應(yīng)用具有重要意義。論文通過(guò)文獻(xiàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)和調(diào)查問(wèn)卷識(shí)別出20種不確定因素,并確定其中的關(guān)鍵因素為：特許期、利率和年均收益,提出了相應(yīng)的量化方法。針對(duì)該方法中存在的12個(gè)相對(duì)重要系數(shù)構(gòu)建了評(píng)價(jià)矩陣,考慮到專(zhuān)家評(píng)分中存在“噪聲數(shù)據(jù)”,采用模糊層次分析法(FAHP)結(jié)合雙S型進(jìn)化函數(shù)對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)矩陣中的權(quán)重多方向一階梯度雙向?qū)?yōu),結(jié)合迭代終止準(zhǔn)則再分配權(quán)重值。該自適應(yīng)模型能夠剔除“噪聲數(shù)據(jù)”,在一定程度上緩和了人們?cè)u(píng)判事物的主觀性思維差異問(wèn)題,優(yōu)化了特許期決策結(jié)果。最后以某高速公路為例,比較了優(yōu)化前后及傳統(tǒng)NPV、IRR方法得出的特許期值,分析了相應(yīng)的NPV敏感性。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析,驗(yàn)證了論文中提出的方法和模型的可行性。圖11幅,表7個(gè),參考文獻(xiàn)93篇。
[Abstract]:In recent years, PPP projects are widely used in the field of infrastructure construction. PPP project investment is huge, the cycle is often more than ten years or even more than a few decades, there are many uncertain factors and great impact; The PPP project involves the tripartite interests of government, private economic entities and the public, and the duration of the concession is often the key to the success or failure of the PPP project. The existing concession decision model is too subjective for the quantification of uncertain factors, and it is of great significance for the practical application of PPP project to study the concession decision method which considers the uncertain factors of the project more scientifically. In this paper, 20 uncertain factors are identified by literature statistics and questionnaire, and the key factors are: concession period, interest rate and average annual income, and the corresponding quantitative method is put forward. An evaluation matrix is constructed for the 12 relative important coefficients in this method, considering the existence of "noise data" in the expert score. Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) combined with double S-type evolution function is used to optimize the weights of multi-direction first-order gradient in the evaluation matrix, and the weight value is redistributed with the iterative termination criterion. The adaptive model can eliminate "noise data", alleviate the subjective thinking difference of people judging things to a certain extent, and optimize the decision result of concession period. Finally, taking an expressway as an example, the concession period obtained by traditional NPV,IRR method and before and after optimization is compared, and the sensitivity of NPV is analyzed. The feasibility of the proposed method and model is verified by empirical analysis. 11 figures, 7 tables, 93 references.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TU71

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