【摘要】：如今全球遭受到的自然災(zāi)害的強(qiáng)度和頻率不斷增加，干旱、洪水、颶風(fēng)、地震和海嘯等災(zāi)害給人類社會(huì)帶來(lái)的損失不斷加劇。城市則是受自然災(zāi)害影響最大的區(qū)域，而在所有城市中濱海城市更是人口、財(cái)富、技術(shù)聚集的核心區(qū)域，是自然災(zāi)害易發(fā)和頻發(fā)的區(qū)域。全方面地對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方法進(jìn)行研究顯得尤為必要。因此，本文以濱海城市自然災(zāi)害為研究對(duì)象展開了災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方法的基礎(chǔ)性研究，主要研究?jī)?nèi)容包括了如下幾個(gè)方面： （1）對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害等級(jí)界定方法進(jìn)行了研究，提出了基于模式識(shí)別理論的多指標(biāo)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害等級(jí)界定算法，它是一種多指標(biāo)下的模式分類方法。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)基于多指標(biāo)的濱海城市自然災(zāi)害等級(jí)的界定實(shí)際上可以簡(jiǎn)化成為一個(gè)多輸入單輸出的模式判別問(wèn)題。因此，本文建立了線性模式判別函數(shù)對(duì)濱海城市災(zāi)害等級(jí)進(jìn)行劃分。在線性判別函數(shù)系數(shù)的確定上，結(jié)合增量固定算法編制了相關(guān)的計(jì)算機(jī)程序模塊，以濱海城市常見的風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)為例，實(shí)現(xiàn)了判別函數(shù)系數(shù)的快速計(jì)算，達(dá)到對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害級(jí)別的快速界定，說(shuō)明了該算法的可用性。 （2）對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)的方法進(jìn)行了研究。本文通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)自然災(zāi)害本身具有混沌的特征，而混沌理論能夠很好地解釋自然災(zāi)害所表現(xiàn)出的混沌現(xiàn)象，同時(shí)對(duì)災(zāi)害未來(lái)的發(fā)展規(guī)律進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。因此，本文提出了基于混沌理論的自然災(zāi)害預(yù)測(cè)模型。通過(guò)研究表明，混沌理論在自然災(zāi)害的預(yù)測(cè)方面是可行的，可以取得較為理想的結(jié)果。與此同時(shí)，在自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)方面，本文提出了基于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的多指標(biāo)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)模型。以風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害為例，建立了三層BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的自然災(zāi)害致災(zāi)等級(jí)預(yù)測(cè)模型，編制了分析程序并進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)計(jì)算，通過(guò)實(shí)例分析證明在通過(guò)主成因識(shí)別法對(duì)風(fēng)暴潮致災(zāi)的主要因素進(jìn)行識(shí)別的基礎(chǔ)上，神經(jīng)元網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型能夠較為精確地預(yù)測(cè)出自然災(zāi)害的災(zāi)害等級(jí)，預(yù)測(cè)效果較好。 （3）對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量化評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行了研究。本文以風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害與地震災(zāi)害為例進(jìn)行了災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量化評(píng)估方法研究，構(gòu)建了定量化評(píng)估模型。在風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量化評(píng)估模型中，討論了單一承災(zāi)體和行業(yè)承災(zāi)體的損失率計(jì)算模型，并通過(guò)潮災(zāi)損失定量統(tǒng)計(jì)模型對(duì)濱海城市的潮災(zāi)損失進(jìn)行了匯總統(tǒng)計(jì)。在地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量化評(píng)估模型中，提出了基于烈度的單體建筑物損失評(píng)估的震害影響因子法和基于歷史災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)的群體建筑物損失評(píng)估方法，最后按照震害損失定量統(tǒng)計(jì)模型對(duì)震害損失進(jìn)行了匯總統(tǒng)計(jì)。 （4）對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)空間可視化評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行了研究。本文運(yùn)用GIS技術(shù)針對(duì)特定災(zāi)害進(jìn)行了可視化的模擬，并在對(duì)研究區(qū)域進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)單元?jiǎng)澐值幕A(chǔ)上評(píng)估了災(zāi)害的損失，同樣以風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害與地震災(zāi)害為例進(jìn)行了災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可視化評(píng)估方法的研究。在風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可視化評(píng)估過(guò)程中，本文利用GIS中的網(wǎng)格計(jì)算模型模擬了風(fēng)暴潮的影響范圍與范圍內(nèi)的水深分布情況，結(jié)合潮災(zāi)定量化評(píng)估模型，編程實(shí)現(xiàn)了風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估模塊，并進(jìn)行了潮災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可視化評(píng)估的實(shí)例分析。在地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可視化評(píng)估中，本文查閱了研究區(qū)的地震烈度衰減模型利用GIS技術(shù)繪制出了地震的影響范圍，并根據(jù)震害損失定量統(tǒng)計(jì)模型對(duì)研究區(qū)的人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟(jì)損失、建筑物破壞情況等進(jìn)行了評(píng)估，編制計(jì)算機(jī)程序模擬出了地震災(zāi)害對(duì)研究區(qū)造成的損失。該方法全面可視化地表現(xiàn)了災(zāi)區(qū)的受災(zāi)情況，達(dá)到了較好的效果。 （5）以青島市為例進(jìn)行了濱海城市自然災(zāi)害的可視化模擬和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。以青島市作為研究區(qū)，通過(guò)對(duì)青島市歷史上災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子強(qiáng)度的概率分析得出了區(qū)域未來(lái)可能遭受到的災(zāi)害的強(qiáng)度。根據(jù)定量化和可視化評(píng)估方法評(píng)估了青島市未來(lái)一旦遭受到風(fēng)暴潮和地震災(zāi)害時(shí)的損失情況，運(yùn)用GIS技術(shù)對(duì)災(zāi)害影響區(qū)域進(jìn)行了模擬，統(tǒng)計(jì)出了青島市各個(gè)社區(qū)災(zāi)害的損失情況，并在地圖上標(biāo)示出了災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)，生成了城市中各類承災(zāi)體的破壞專題圖，評(píng)估效果較為滿意。 （6）對(duì)濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方法進(jìn)行了研究。本文把構(gòu)建濱海城市自然災(zāi)害預(yù)警與應(yīng)急信息系統(tǒng)作為濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的主要手段，并在ArcGIS Server平臺(tái)上討論了系統(tǒng)的邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)、功能設(shè)計(jì)與數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)設(shè)計(jì)，，并對(duì)系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)和核心功能的實(shí)現(xiàn)作了相關(guān)的研究，建立了濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制信息系統(tǒng)，實(shí)踐證明該系統(tǒng)在濱海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)估與控制中能起到較好的輔助決策作用。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the intensity and frequency of natural disasters are increasing all over the world. Droughts, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis are causing increasing losses to human society. Cities are the areas most affected by natural disasters. In all cities, coastal cities are the core areas of population, wealth and technology accumulation, and natural disasters. It is necessary to study the risk assessment and risk control methods of natural disasters in coastal cities in all aspects. Therefore, the basic research on risk assessment and risk control methods of natural disasters in coastal cities is carried out in this paper. The main research contents include the following aspects :
(1) The method of natural disaster classification of coastal cities is studied, and a multi-index algorithm of natural disaster classification based on pattern recognition theory is proposed, which is a multi-index pattern classification method. This paper establishes a linear pattern discriminant function to classify coastal city disasters. In the determination of linear discriminant function coefficients, a computer program module is compiled with the incremental fixed algorithm, and the storm surge disaster data of coastal cities are taken as an example. The fast calculation of discriminant function coefficients and the fast definition of natural disaster level of coastal cities show the feasibility of the algorithm.
(2) The risk prediction methods of natural disasters in coastal cities are studied in this paper. It is found that natural disasters have chaotic characteristics, and chaos theory can well explain the chaotic phenomena of natural disasters and predict the future development of natural disasters. The research shows that chaos theory is feasible in the prediction of natural disasters and can obtain ideal results. At the same time, in the prediction of natural disaster risk grade, a multi-index forecasting model of coastal city natural disaster risk grade based on neural network is proposed. As an example, a three-layer BP neural network model for predicting natural disasters is established, the analysis program is compiled and the prediction calculation is carried out. It is proved that the neural network model can accurately predict natural disasters on the basis of identifying the main factors causing disasters by storm surge through the method of principal cause identification. The prediction of disaster grade is better.
(3) The quantitative assessment method of natural disaster risk in coastal cities is studied. Taking storm surge disaster and earthquake disaster as an example, the quantitative assessment method of disaster risk is studied, and the quantitative assessment model is constructed. In the quantitative assessment model of earthquake disaster risk, the seismic damage impact factor method based on intensity and the group building loss evaluation based on historical disaster data statistics are proposed. Finally, according to the statistical model of earthquake damage loss, the losses of earthquake damage are summarized.
(4) The spatial visualization assessment method of natural disaster risk in coastal cities is studied. In this paper, GIS technology is used to visualize the simulation of specific disasters, and the loss of disasters is evaluated on the basis of the division of evaluation units in the study area. In the process of visualization assessment of storm surge disaster risk, this paper simulates the distribution of water depth in the scope and scope of storm surge by using grid computing model in GIS. Combining with the quantitative assessment model of tide disaster, the loss assessment module of storm surge disaster is programmed and realized, and the risk of tide disaster can be calculated. In the visual evaluation of earthquake disaster risk, this paper consults the seismic intensity attenuation model of the study area and draws out the influence range of the earthquake by using GIS technology, and evaluates the casualties, economic losses and building damage in the study area according to the quantitative statistical model of earthquake damage loss. The computer program simulates the damage caused by earthquake disaster in the study area. The method shows the disaster situation of the disaster area visually and comprehensively, and achieves good results.
(5) Taking Qingdao as an example, the visual simulation and risk assessment of natural disasters in coastal cities are carried out. Taking Qingdao as a research area, the intensity of disasters that may occur in the future in Qingdao city is obtained through the probability analysis of the intensity of disaster-causing factors in the history of Qingdao city. In the last few years, the loss of storm surge and earthquake disaster was simulated by using GIS technology. The loss of disasters in different communities in Qingdao was counted. The risk area of disasters was shown on the map, and the damage thematic maps of various disaster-bearing bodies in the city were generated. The evaluation results were satisfactory.
(6) The risk control methods of natural disasters in coastal cities are studied. In this paper, the early warning and emergency information system of natural disasters in coastal cities is constructed as the main means of risk control of natural disasters in coastal cities. The logical structure design, function design and database design of the system are discussed on the platform of ArcGIS Server. The key technology and the realization of the core function are studied, and the coastal city natural disaster risk control information system is established. The practice proves that the system can play a better role in the coastal city natural disaster risk assessment and control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.116;X43

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