本文選題：城市規(guī)模效益 + 首位度　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟全球化浪潮席卷而來,國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟社會大環(huán)境發(fā)生深刻變化,區(qū)域發(fā)展面臨著全新的機遇與挑戰(zhàn)。中國在全球化浪潮中積極尋求自身發(fā)展地位,規(guī)避劣勢做大優(yōu)勢,國內(nèi)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟得到翻天覆地的發(fā)展。長三角已成為國內(nèi)城市分布密度最大、經(jīng)濟實力最強的城市連綿區(qū),在國內(nèi)具有舉足輕重的經(jīng)濟地位,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展形成以上海為龍頭、江浙地區(qū)等周邊地區(qū)協(xié)同發(fā)展的格局。 長三角城市群經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,也相應(yīng)的促進了區(qū)域人口城市化的快速發(fā)展。改革開放以來,長三角城市群進入人口城市化加速發(fā)展時期,于此同時城市社會、經(jīng)濟、產(chǎn)業(yè)得到快速發(fā)展。但過快的城市化進程造成了城市人口、工業(yè)和交通運輸?shù)冗^度集中,給長三角地區(qū)城市經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展帶來制約因素,如城鎮(zhèn)居民就業(yè)及社會保障、城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施滯后、城市環(huán)境惡化等問題,進而對城市的運行產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,我們把這些因城市人口和經(jīng)濟活動過度集中帶來的城市問題稱為“城市病”。由此引發(fā)學(xué)術(shù)界對長三角城市規(guī)模過大還是過小的問題的討論,甚至延伸至對中國城市規(guī)模發(fā)展方向的再一次探討。 本文以長三角城市群30個城市為研究對象,在充分研究其他學(xué)者城市規(guī)模相關(guān)理論、最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模文獻與實證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,采用首位度指數(shù)、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法、非線性回歸、GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型等計量方法,分析了該區(qū)域城市人口規(guī)模分布現(xiàn)狀及特征,并對其城市規(guī)模與城市效益關(guān)系進行計量研究。此外,文章還對未來各城市人口規(guī)模發(fā)展趨勢進行預(yù)測,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了長三角地區(qū)人口城市化發(fā)展相關(guān)建議。這無論對長三角地區(qū)人口規(guī)模發(fā)展方向、政策制定,還是對全國城市化發(fā)展方針的制定,都具有一定的參考借鑒意義。 文章的創(chuàng)新在于：(1)基于最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模相關(guān)理論與實證研究,及統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的連續(xù)性和可獲得性,文章選取以長三角城市群30個城市為研究對象,針對其城市規(guī)模問題進行了細(xì)致研究,探討了其最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模問題。而國內(nèi)針對長三角的研究鮮有選取全部30個城市在內(nèi)作為研究對象進行分析的。(2)改革開放以來,國內(nèi)特別是長三角城市經(jīng)濟得到快速發(fā)展,創(chuàng)造了令人囑目的可喜成績。文章系統(tǒng)的探討了長三角城市規(guī)模與效益的關(guān)系,并分析得出其最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模,給未來該區(qū)域城市規(guī)模發(fā)展方向提供意見。(3)利用數(shù)據(jù)分析軟件,通過多種計量方法探討長三角最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模問題。文章采用了首位度分析、因子分析、回歸分析、灰色預(yù)測模型等多種計量方法,使其研究成果更加具有實際說服力。 在主要內(nèi)容安排上,文章共分為六章。第一章主要是研究背景、研究意義、研究內(nèi)容、研究方法以及論文框架的闡述,歸納得出本文研究的意義及創(chuàng)新所在。第二章是對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論及研究進展的梳理和分析。第三章對文章研究對象概況進行介紹,并歸納總結(jié)國內(nèi)城市規(guī)模政策的發(fā)展歷程,同時利用城市規(guī)模等級體系及首位度指數(shù)等計量指標(biāo)對長三角城市規(guī)模分布的現(xiàn)在特點進行了研究探討,得出當(dāng)前長三角城市群城市規(guī)模發(fā)展趨勢符合世界城市群發(fā)展規(guī)律。第四章通過因子分析及回歸分析方法,重點分析長三角城市群不同規(guī)模城市的經(jīng)濟效益、社會效益和總效益情況,得出理論研究上長三角各城市的最優(yōu)城市規(guī)模。第五章主要是通過灰色預(yù)測模型對各城市的城市規(guī)模進行預(yù)測。第六章是對前文的歸納總結(jié),并對文章內(nèi)容進行了進一步思考。
[Abstract]:With the tide of economic globalization, profound changes have taken place in the economic and social environment at home and abroad. Regional development is facing new opportunities and challenges. China is actively seeking its own development status in the wave of globalization, avoiding disadvantages and making big advantages, and the domestic regional economy has been overturned. The Yangtze River Delta has become a dense distribution of domestic cities. The urban continuous areas with the largest degree and the strongest economic strength have an important economic position in China. The development of regional economy has formed a pattern of coordinated development with Shanghai as the leading and the surrounding areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.
The rapid development of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta has also promoted the rapid development of the urbanization of the regional population. Since the reform and opening up, the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta has entered the period of accelerated development of the population urbanization. At the same time, the urban society, economy and industry have developed rapidly. But the rapid urbanization process has caused urban population, industry and transportation. The excessive concentration of transportation and so on has brought restrictions to the urban economic and social development of the Yangtze River Delta, such as the employment and social security of urban residents, the lagging of urban infrastructure and the deterioration of the urban environment, which have a negative impact on the operation of the city. We call these urban problems caused by the excessive concentration of urban population and economic activities as the urban problems. "Urban disease" has triggered a discussion on the large or too small size of the city in the Yangtze River Delta, and even further extends to the direction of the development of Chinese cities.
This paper takes 30 cities of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta as the research object. On the basis of the study of other scholars' urban scale theory, the optimal city scale literature and the empirical study, this paper uses the first degree index, grey correlation method, nonlinear regression, GM (1,1) prediction model and so on to analyze the present situation of the population size distribution in this region and the present situation of the urban population distribution in this region. In addition, the article also predicts the development trend of the population size of the cities in the future, and on this basis puts forward some suggestions on the development of population urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta, which is the direction for the development of the population regulation in the Yangtze River Delta, the policy making, or the National City. The formulation of the policy of development has certain reference significance.
The innovation of the article lies in: (1) based on the theory and Empirical Study of the optimal city scale, and the continuity and availability of the statistical data, the article selects 30 cities in the Yangtze River Delta city group as the research object, and makes a detailed study of the urban scale of the Yangtze River Delta, and probes into the problem of its optimal city scale. The study rarely selects all 30 cities as the research object. (2) since the reform and opening up, the economy of the city in the Yangtze River Delta, especially the Yangtze River Delta, has developed rapidly and has created a desired result. The article systematically discusses the relationship between the size and benefit of the Yangtze River Delta and its optimal city scale and gives the future The direction of the scale development of regional cities provides advice. (3) using data analysis software to discuss the problem of the optimal city size in the Yangtze River Delta through a variety of measurement methods. The article adopts a number of measurement methods, such as first degree analysis, factor analysis, regression analysis, grey prediction model and so on, so that the research results are more practical and persuasive.
In the main content arrangement, the article is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is mainly the research background, research significance, research content, research methods and the framework of the paper, and concludes the significance and innovation of this paper. The second chapter is the combing and analysis of the related theories and research progress at home and abroad. The third chapter is the general survey of the article. The development course of urban scale policy in China is summarized and summarized. At the same time, the present characteristics of the urban scale distribution in the Yangtze River Delta are studied by using the urban scale system and the first index index, and the development trend of urban agglomeration in the city group of the Yangtze River Delta is in line with the law of the development of the world city group. Fourth Through the factor analysis and the regression analysis method, the chapter analyzes the economic benefit, the social benefit and the total benefit of the cities of different scale in the Yangtze River Delta, and obtains the optimal city size of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta. The fifth chapter is mainly to predict the urban scale of each city through the grey forecasting model. The sixth chapter is the former. The paper summarizes and summarizes the contents of the article.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU982.2

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