本文選題：商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目 + 投資風險管理��； 參考：《中國海洋大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國商業(yè)地產(chǎn)對進一步促進國內(nèi)消費、擴大國內(nèi)需求、拉動固定資產(chǎn)投資、改善居民生活條件以及塑造文明的城鎮(zhèn)面貌、帶動建筑建材等相關前后一體化產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,發(fā)揮了非常重要的作用。近年來,房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)特別是轉(zhuǎn)型專注于商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的投資者越來越重視項目投資風險問題,然而,商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目投資風險管理實踐中存在諸多需要迫切解決的問題：諸如投資者風險意識差、缺乏項目投資風險管理機制、運營風險較大、缺乏全面的市場調(diào)查分析等等。從理論上來看,國內(nèi)學術界關于商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目風險管理的理論研究還存在不足之處,具體表現(xiàn)在：缺少投資風險的機理分析、風險評估指標體系構建缺乏實證研究、風險應對措施缺乏針對性。因此,深入研究商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目投資風險管理問題,具有重要的實踐意義和理論價值。本文以威海市樂天瑪特商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目為研究對象,通過相關文獻資料收集有關項目決策階段、項目實施階段和項目運營階段的各種風險因素,設計了初始問卷調(diào)查表,經(jīng)過小范圍施測,最后確定了正式調(diào)查問卷。對國內(nèi)5家上市公司分布在全國各地的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目作為調(diào)研樣本,運用因子分析法確定了各個階段的有關風險因素歸為4個因子,最終構建了威海樂天瑪特商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目投資風險指標體系,該指標體系包括4個一級指標,分別是：決策風險、市場風險、技術風險、管理風險,其中決策風險包括4個二級指標,市場風險包括3個二級指標,技術風險包括4個二級指標,管理風險包括7個二級指標。然后對威海市樂天瑪特商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目投資風險進行評估,一是各種風險發(fā)生概率分析；另一方面是各種風險損失量相對嚴重程度展開分析。對于前者,采用德菲爾法經(jīng)過三輪分析,確定了比較一致的投資風險指標相應的風險發(fā)生概率；對于后者,采用層次分析法給出了各種風險損失量相對嚴重程度的權重,最后,綜合考量兩方面的結(jié)果,確定各種風險等級,給出了5種關鍵風險因素,分別是可行性研究風險、合同風險、消費者購買力水平風險、價格風險、溝通協(xié)調(diào)風險。最后,運用因果分析圖法明確了上述5種關鍵風險因素產(chǎn)生的細化原因,如可行性研究風險細化原因是存在操作性風險,合同風險細化原因是承包人自身的風險和合同條款存在風險,消費者購買力水平風險細化原因是品牌風險,價格風險細化原因是價格條款的風險,溝通協(xié)調(diào)風險細化原因是利益主體意見分歧,然后針對這些原因提出了具體的具有針對性的防范措施。本文的主要結(jié)論如下：(1)編制了威海市樂天瑪特商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目投資風險正式調(diào)查問卷表。該問卷表由18個題項組成。(2)構建了威海市樂天瑪特商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目投資風險指標體系。一級指標包括決策風險、市場風險、技術風險、管理風險；二級指標包括18種風險。(3)采用德菲爾法和層次分析法確定了威海市樂天瑪特商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目投資風險的5種關鍵風險因素,分別是消費者購買力水平、合同風險、可行性研究風險、溝通協(xié)調(diào)風險和價格風險。(4)運用因果分析圖法查找了5種關鍵風險因素相應的具體產(chǎn)生原因,然后給出了相應的風險防范措施。
[Abstract]:China's commercial real estate has played a very important role in further promoting domestic consumption, expanding domestic demand, stimulating investment in fixed assets, improving the living conditions of residents and shaping the appearance of civilized cities and towns, and promoting the rapid development of the related and integrated industries, such as building materials, and so on. In recent years, the real estate development enterprises, especially the transformation of the enterprises, have focused on the transformation. The investors of commercial real estate development pay more and more attention to the risk of project investment. However, there are many urgent problems to be solved in the practice of investment risk management in commercial real estate development projects, such as poor investor risk awareness, lack of project investment risk management mechanism, large operation risk, lack of comprehensive market investigation and analysis, and so on. From the theoretical point of view, the theoretical research on the risk management of commercial real estate projects still exists in the domestic academic circles, which is manifested in the analysis of the lack of investment risk mechanism, the lack of empirical research on the construction of risk assessment index system and the lack of pertinence of the risk response measures. The management problem has important practical significance and theoretical value. In this paper, taking the commercial real estate project of Weihai's Lotte Matt as the research object, this paper designs the initial questionnaire survey form through the relevant literature data, and designs the initial questionnaire. We set up a formal questionnaire. As a survey sample of the commercial real estate projects of 5 listed companies in China, we use factor analysis to determine the risk factors of each stage as 4 factors. Finally, the investment risk index system of the Weihai Lotte Matt commercial real estate project is constructed. The index system includes 4 first levels. Indicators are: decision risk, market risk, technical risk, management risk, among which decision risk includes 4 two level indicators, market risk includes 3 two level indicators, technical risk includes 4 two level indicators, management risk includes 7 two level indicators. Then, the investment risk of Weihai lotian Matt commercial real estate project is evaluated, one is each On the other hand, the relative severity of risk loss is analyzed. For the former, a three round analysis is adopted by the Delphi method to determine the corresponding risk occurrence probability of a relatively consistent investment risk index; for the latter, a relative serious course of risk loss is given by the analytic hierarchy process. The weight of the degree, finally, the comprehensive consideration of the results of two aspects, determine a variety of risk levels, and give 5 key risk factors, respectively, the feasibility study risk, contract risk, consumer purchasing power level risk, price risk, communication and coordination risk. Finally, the use of causality analysis diagram method to clarify the refinement of the 5 key risk factors. For example, the reason for the feasibility study is the existence of operational risk. The reasons for the refinement of the risk are the risk of the contractor itself and the risk of the contract terms. The reason for the refinement of the consumer purchasing power level is the brand risk, the reason for the price risk refinement is the risk of the price terms, and the reasons for the refinement of the communication and coordination risk are the stakeholders. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) a formal questionnaire on the investment risk of the commercial real estate project in Weihai was compiled. The questionnaire was composed of 18 items. (2) the investment risk of the commercial real estate project in Weihai was constructed. The first level index includes decision risk, market risk, technical risk and management risk; two level index includes 18 kinds of risk. (3) 5 key risk factors are determined by Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which are the level of consumer purchasing power, contract risk and feasibility study. Study the risk, communicate and coordinate the risk and the price risk. (4) use the causality analysis map to find out the specific causes of the 5 key risk factors, and then give the corresponding risk prevention measures.

【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;TU71

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