發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-04 15:33

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于指數(shù)平滑法的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測研究　出處：《西華大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 建設(shè)項(xiàng)目 成本預(yù)測 指數(shù)平滑法

【摘要】：2003年7月1日，《建設(shè)工程工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)規(guī)范》正式實(shí)施執(zhí)行，標(biāo)志著我國建設(shè)工程計(jì)價(jià)模式與國際接軌，特別是修訂過的2008《建設(shè)工程工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)規(guī)范》（GB50500——2008）的實(shí)施，，一方面，使得我國工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)模式的招投標(biāo)行為更加完善、合理；另一方面，這也對(duì)建筑企業(yè)提出了更高的要求。在當(dāng)前信息化、規(guī)范化和透明化的市場背景下，建筑企業(yè)之間的競爭是實(shí)力的競爭，對(duì)于建筑企業(yè)要想在激烈的市場競爭中能更好的生存和發(fā)展，對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行科學(xué)的成本管理顯得尤為重要，而成本預(yù)測是成本管理的核心和基礎(chǔ)，也是加強(qiáng)成本控制的首要環(huán)節(jié)，而且在以工程量清單計(jì)價(jià)為基礎(chǔ)的招投標(biāo)模式下，建筑企業(yè)在投標(biāo)報(bào)價(jià)前對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的成本進(jìn)行合理的預(yù)測成了一項(xiàng)非常重要的工作。因此，針對(duì)目前我國建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本管理的現(xiàn)狀，為了適應(yīng)建筑市場新的發(fā)展的需要，本文開展了基于指數(shù)平滑法的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測研究工作。 由于影響建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本的因素有很多，使得建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測本身存在著很多不確定性，這給建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測的精確性帶來了很大的困難。本文首先從國內(nèi)外對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測的研究狀況入手，分析了這些傳統(tǒng)的成本預(yù)測方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)。文章在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上，避免傳統(tǒng)預(yù)測方法的速度慢、精度低等缺點(diǎn)，以指數(shù)平滑法作為理論基礎(chǔ)，將模糊數(shù)學(xué)中的貼近度歸一化處理后作為平滑指數(shù)，合理的將模糊數(shù)學(xué)與指數(shù)平滑法相結(jié)合，并且同時(shí)考慮了建造時(shí)間因素對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測的影響，合理的將工程造價(jià)指數(shù)融入到其中對(duì)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行修正，提出了基于指數(shù)平滑法的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測模型。從而克服了以往傳統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測方法的不足，在一定程度上大大提高了成本預(yù)測的速度與精度。最后通過具體的案例檢測該建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測模型，證明了該建設(shè)項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測方法的研究與應(yīng)用具有很重要的理論意義和實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:In July 1, 2003, "construction engineering quantity list valuation specification formal implementation, marking China's construction project valuation mode and the international community, especially the 2008< construction project quantity list valuation standard revised > (GB50500 - 2008) implementation, on the one hand, the bidding behavior of list of engineering quantity valuation model in China the more perfect and reasonable; on the other hand, this is also the construction enterprises put forward higher requirements. In the current informatization, standardization and transparency in the market background, the competition among enterprises is the competition for survival and development in the construction enterprises in order to better in the fierce competition in the market the construction project cost management, science is very important, but the cost prediction is the core and foundation of the cost management, but also strengthen the key link of cost control, but also in the bill of quantities as the base The bidding mode of the foundation, the construction enterprises in the bidding before the construction project cost reasonably forecast has become a very important job. Therefore, according to the current situation of China's construction project cost management, in order to meet the needs of the development of new construction market, this paper carried out the exponential smoothing method of construction project cost based on the research work of prediction.
Because the influence factors of the construction project cost a lot, so that the construction project cost prediction itself there are many uncertainties to the precision of the construction project cost prediction has brought great difficulties. Firstly, research status at home and abroad on the construction project cost prediction in hand, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional method of cost prediction this article. On the basis of previous studies, to avoid the traditional prediction method of slow speed, low precision, the exponential smoothing method as the theoretical basis, the fuzzy normalized as the smoothing index, the reasonable combination of fuzzy mathematics and exponential smoothing method, and considering the factors of construction time prediction of the influence of construction project cost, reasonable construction cost index into the prediction model of construction project cost is revised, proposed based on exponential smoothing Forecasting model of construction project cost. In order to overcome the lack of prediction method of traditional construction project cost, to a certain extent, greatly improving the speed and accuracy of cost prediction. The prediction model of case detection in the construction project cost, proved that the construction project cost prediction has very important theoretical significance and practical the value of research and application.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TU723.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 金雪飛，楊萬根;人工神經(jīng)元網(wǎng)絡(luò)及其在成本預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用[J];包頭鋼鐵學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);1995年02期

2 任玉瓏，陸位忠;模糊綜合評(píng)判原理在土建工程造價(jià)估算中的應(yīng)用[J];重慶大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);1995年01期

3 左光文;;一元回歸法在工程項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用[J];廣東輸電與變電技術(shù);2009年01期

4 彭麗群;張欣莉;;基于貢獻(xiàn)分析的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)集成法在工程造價(jià)預(yù)測中的研究[J];經(jīng)營管理者;2009年22期

5 牛東曉,乞建勛,邢棉;建筑工程造價(jià)預(yù)測的變結(jié)構(gòu)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型研究[J];華北電力大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2001年04期

6 張利榮,王素梅;工程項(xiàng)目成本預(yù)測的多基元模糊算法[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2004年03期

7 聶守平,尹貽林;工程造價(jià)的模糊估算方法[J];基建優(yōu)化;1990年04期

8 王瀟洲;工程造價(jià)動(dòng)態(tài)快速預(yù)測的模糊數(shù)學(xué)方法[J];基建優(yōu)化;2001年02期

9 劉芳,黃忠;固定資產(chǎn)投資估算國內(nèi)外比較分析[J];基建優(yōu)化;2003年04期

10 金朝茂;張宇波;;指數(shù)趨勢模型在工程成本預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用[J];價(jià)值工程;2009年02期

本文編號(hào)：1378995