本文關(guān)鍵詞：人口轉(zhuǎn)型、技術(shù)進(jìn)步與中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

人口轉(zhuǎn)型、技術(shù)進(jìn)步與中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)

Demographic Transition,Technological Progress and Sustainable Development of China＇s Agriculture

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HANG Fan;GUO Jian-xiong （Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Social Economic Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi ＇an 710062, China）

陜西師范大學(xué)西北歷史環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展研究院,西安710062

文章摘要：在農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力和農(nóng)業(yè)用地非農(nóng)化趨勢(shì)不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的背景下,中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)唯有依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步�，F(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)是以物質(zhì)資本和人力資本為載體的,農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)型帶來(lái)的農(nóng)業(yè)人力資本供給的增長(zhǎng),將成為中國(guó)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)體系構(gòu)建的不可或缺的條件之一。中國(guó)1985-2012年間30個(gè)省（市、自治區(qū)）面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明,東、中、西部地區(qū)不同的技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)起到不同程度的促進(jìn)作用,而人口生產(chǎn)由數(shù)量偏好（高生育率）向質(zhì)量偏好（高人力資本積累率）轉(zhuǎn)變,即人口轉(zhuǎn)型與農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化水平和化肥施用量之間均具有正相關(guān)關(guān)系,表明人口轉(zhuǎn)型已成為影響當(dāng)前中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的重要因素之一。隨著工業(yè)化和城市化的推進(jìn),人口轉(zhuǎn)型已成為農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的唯一有效途徑。

Abstr：At the background of non-agriculture unconvertible trend of agricultural labor and land,the sustainable growth of China＇s agricultural output only relies on technological progress.As modern agricultural technology is based on physical capital and human capital,rural demographic transition has been improving the supply of agricultural human capital,which will become one of the indispensable conditions to establish modern agricultural technology system.Based on empirical analysis of 30provinces＇ panel data from 1985~2000,the difference of technological progress and the influencing factors of agricultural growth in eastern,middle and western provinces is analyzed in this paper.The models verify that the demographic transition which means population production change from quantity preference（high fertility）to quality preference（high human capital accumulation rate）has a positive influence on agricultural machinery level and fertilizer use.The conclusion shows that demographic transition has become one of the most important factors of agricultural technology progress.Furthermore,with the progressing of urbanization and industrialization,demographic transition has become the only effective way of agricultural sustainable growth in China.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:demographic transition agricultural technological progress agricultural growth

課題項(xiàng)目：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（14BJY031）

作者信息：會(huì)員可見(jiàn)

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：人口轉(zhuǎn)型、技術(shù)進(jìn)步與中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。