【摘要】：時間尺度的選擇是水稻與氣候關系研究中的關鍵環(huán)節(jié)。為評價中短時災害情景下的水稻氣候適宜性,本文以遼寧省1961-2010年逐日氣溫、日照時數(shù)為影響因子,結合氣候產(chǎn)量采用通徑分析方法確定各因子權重,進而構建水稻氣候適宜度日尺度模型及不同氣候區(qū)的適宜度等級評價指標。通過與旬尺度模型對比,闡明不同時間尺度模型在中短時災害天氣影響下的氣候適宜度狀況。結果表明:(1)氣候適宜度日尺度評價模型能夠反映水稻生長的氣候條件及對其生長發(fā)育的影響,水稻營養(yǎng)生長階段的氣候適宜度與株高的相關系數(shù)(R)為0.722(P0.01);生殖生長階段的氣候適宜度與水稻產(chǎn)量的相關系數(shù)(R)為0.669(P0.01);(2)根據(jù)氣候適宜度評價指標確定水稻氣候適宜度等級,揭示在突發(fā)洪澇災害的情況下,日尺度比旬尺度模型更能詮釋水稻生長的氣候適宜度狀況。
[Abstract]:The choice of time scale is the key link in the study of the relationship between rice and climate. In order to evaluate the climatic suitability of rice under medium and short-term disaster scenarios, the daily temperature and sunshine hours from 1961 to 2010 in Liaoning Province were taken as the influencing factors, and the weight of each factor was determined by path analysis method combined with climate yield. Furthermore, the diurnal scale model of rice climate suitability and the evaluation index of suitability grade in different climatic areas were constructed. By comparing with the ten-day scale model, the climatic suitability of different time scale models under the influence of medium and short-term disaster weather is expounded. The results showed that: (1) the diurnal scale evaluation model of climate suitability could reflect the climatic conditions of rice growth and its effects on the growth and development of rice (Oryza sativa L.). The correlation coefficient between climate suitability and plant height in vegetative growth stage of rice was 0.722 (P01). The correlation coefficient between climate suitability and rice yield in reproductive growth stage was 0.669 (P01). (2) according to the evaluation index of climate suitability, the climatic suitability grade of rice was determined, which revealed that the daily scale was more able to interpret the climate suitability of rice growth than the ten-day scale model in the case of sudden flood and waterlogging.
【作者單位】： 中國氣象局沈陽大氣環(huán)境研究所;沈陽市氣象局;
【基金】：中央級公益性科研院所基本科研項目(2015IAE-CMA04) 公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201306036) 國家自然科學基金項目(41405109)
【分類號】：S162;S511

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