【摘要】：根據(jù)1976-2015年受災(zāi)、成災(zāi)和絕收面積等統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算中國主要農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害包括洪澇、干旱、風(fēng)雹和低溫災(zāi)害的受災(zāi)率、成災(zāi)率、絕收率和損失率,并對其變化趨勢、災(zāi)害損失和災(zāi)害等級的變化特征進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明:(1)總體上,1976-2015年中國主要農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害的受災(zāi)率呈顯著減小的趨勢,而成災(zāi)率和絕收率變化趨勢則不顯著。干旱與農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害總體變化趨勢相一致;洪澇受災(zāi)率、成災(zāi)率和絕收率存在階段性的變化特征,1986-2005年各項(xiàng)均值最大;風(fēng)雹災(zāi)害下降趨勢顯著,受災(zāi)率、成災(zāi)率均顯著減小;而低溫災(zāi)害各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)的年代均值逐漸增加。(2)研究期內(nèi)四大災(zāi)害總體損失率的上下限呈先增加后減小的趨勢,平均災(zāi)害損失率為7.1%~15.7%。洪澇和干旱災(zāi)害損失率的上下限變化趨勢與農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害總體一致,其平均損失率分別為2.0%~4.2%、3.8%~8.6%;而風(fēng)雹災(zāi)害損失率的上下限呈減小的趨勢,平均損失率為0.8%~1.7%;低溫災(zāi)害損失率的上下限呈增加趨勢,平均損失率為0.5%~1.1%。(3)研究期間洪澇重災(zāi)發(fā)生次數(shù)最多,為突發(fā)性災(zāi)害;干旱、風(fēng)雹中災(zāi)和重災(zāi)發(fā)生次數(shù)之和最多,為常態(tài)性災(zāi)害。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data of disaster, disaster and harvest area from 1976 to 2015, the disaster rate, extinction rate and loss rate of the main agrometeorological disasters in China, including flood, drought, hail and low temperature disasters, are calculated, and their changing trends are also calculated. The change characteristics of disaster loss and disaster grade are analyzed. The results show that: (1) on the whole, the disaster rate of major agrometeorological disasters in China decreased significantly from 1976 to 2015, but the change trend of disaster rate and extinction rate was not significant. The overall change trend of drought and agrometeorological disasters is consistent, and the flood disaster rate, disaster occurrence rate and extinction rate have the characteristics of stage change, and the average values of floods and waterlogging disasters are the largest from 1986 to 2005. The decreasing trend of hail disaster is significant, and the disaster rate and disaster rate are significantly reduced. However, the chronological mean of each index of low temperature disaster increased gradually. (2) during the study period, the upper and lower limits of the total loss rate of the four major disasters increased at first and then decreased, and the average disaster loss rate was 7.1% 鈮，

本文編號：2476429