【摘要】：隨著全球氣候的顯著變化以及水資源需求日益增長(zhǎng),我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)系統(tǒng)面臨的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也不斷增加。因此,有必要加強(qiáng)農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究,為我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的科學(xué)管理以及防災(zāi)減災(zāi)策略的制定提供理論基礎(chǔ)。本文以河南省為研究對(duì)象,在綜合分析自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一種基于突變理論的農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法,并利用該方法對(duì)河南省農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析、評(píng)估,取得了以下的成果及結(jié)論:(1)本文通過(guò)分析研究河南省的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱特點(diǎn),從致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)性、承災(zāi)體的脆弱性和暴露性以及抗旱能力等方面,分析導(dǎo)致干旱的原因。梳理和剖析干旱、旱災(zāi)、農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等基本概念,形成對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本認(rèn)知。除了采用傳統(tǒng)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法進(jìn)行研究外,還可以將農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害還原到自然災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)范疇,運(yùn)用自然災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)相關(guān)理論來(lái)對(duì)其進(jìn)行研究。(2)根據(jù)自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)原理,分析形成農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的四個(gè)方面:危險(xiǎn)性、脆弱性、暴露性以及抗旱能力,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的選取原則并與河南省實(shí)際狀況相結(jié)合,選擇恰當(dāng)合理的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),構(gòu)建河南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)體系。利用熵值法,確定各個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,并按重要性進(jìn)行排列,構(gòu)建河南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。(3)根據(jù)突變理論,建立基于突變理論的綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,并通過(guò)調(diào)整初始綜合值以及構(gòu)建擬合函數(shù)的方法對(duì)常規(guī)的突變?cè)u(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行改進(jìn),從而提高綜合評(píng)價(jià)值的分辨率水平,可以更加直觀地區(qū)別評(píng)價(jià)值的等級(jí)與大小。(4)利用突變?cè)u(píng)價(jià)模型對(duì)河南省農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與分析,一方面,從致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)性、承災(zāi)體的脆弱性和暴露性以及抗旱能力等方面進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析;另一方面,從氣候因素、農(nóng)用物資、生產(chǎn)條件以及農(nóng)田水利等方面對(duì)河南省的糧食產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行評(píng)估,通過(guò)對(duì)各市糧食產(chǎn)量的分析進(jìn)一步對(duì)河南省農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)進(jìn)行等級(jí)劃分;最后,以河南省玉米種植為研究對(duì)象,把該區(qū)域玉米生育周期劃分為以下四個(gè)階段:第一階段,播種-育苗(6月);第二階段,拔節(jié)-抽穗(6-7月);第三階段,抽穗-乳熟(7-8月);第四階段,乳熟-收獲(8-9月),每個(gè)階段在從氣壓、氣溫、相對(duì)濕度以及降水等方面結(jié)合突變?cè)u(píng)價(jià)法進(jìn)行計(jì)算,通過(guò)計(jì)算結(jié)果對(duì)河南省農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)進(jìn)行分析。
[Abstract]:With the remarkable change of global climate and the increasing demand for water resources, the risk of drought in China's agricultural system is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the study of agricultural drought risk so as to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management of agricultural drought disasters and the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation strategies in China. Based on the comprehensive analysis of natural disaster risk and agricultural drought risk in Henan province, this paper puts forward a method of agricultural drought risk analysis based on catastrophe theory. By using this method to analyze and evaluate the agricultural drought risk in Henan Province, the following results and conclusions are obtained: (1) the characteristics of agricultural drought in Henan Province are analyzed and studied in this paper, according to the risk of disaster-causing factors, the risk of agricultural drought in Henan Province is analyzed and evaluated. The causes of drought are analyzed in the aspects of vulnerability and exposure of disaster-bearing bodies and drought resistance ability. Combing and analyzing the basic concepts of drought, agricultural drought risk and so on, to form the basic cognition of agricultural drought disaster risk. In addition to using the traditional drought risk analysis method, agricultural drought disaster can be reduced to natural disaster system category and studied by the theory of natural disaster system. (2) according to the natural disaster risk principle, the agricultural drought disaster can be reduced to the natural disaster system category. (2) according to the natural disaster risk principle, Based on the analysis of the four aspects of agricultural drought: risk, vulnerability, exposure and drought resistance ability, according to the selection principle of evaluation index and combining with the actual situation of Henan Province, the appropriate and reasonable evaluation index is selected. To construct the evaluation system of agricultural drought index in Henan province. The entropy method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index and arrange it according to the importance to construct the agricultural drought risk assessment model in Henan Province. (3) according to the catastrophe theory, the comprehensive evaluation model based on the catastrophe theory is established. The conventional catastrophe evaluation method is improved by adjusting the initial synthesis value and constructing the fitting function, so as to improve the resolution level of the comprehensive evaluation value. The grade and size of the evaluation value can be distinguished more intuitively. (4) the risk assessment and analysis of agricultural drought in Henan Province is carried out by using the catastrophe evaluation model. On the one hand, from the risk of the disaster-causing factors, The vulnerability, exposure and drought resistance of disaster-bearing bodies were evaluated and analyzed. On the other hand, the grain yield of Henan Province is evaluated from the aspects of climatic factors, agricultural materials, production conditions and farmland water conservancy, and the agricultural drought in Henan Province is further classified according to the analysis of grain output of each city. Finally, the growing cycle of maize in Henan Province was divided into the following four stages: the first stage, sowing-seedling (June), the second stage, jointing-heading (June-July), and the third stage (June-July), the second stage was jointing-heading (June-July). Stage III, heading-milking (July-August); The fourth stage, milk ripening-harvest (August-September), each stage in terms of air pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and other aspects of the sudden change evaluation method to calculate, through the calculation results of agricultural drought analysis in Henan Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：S423

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