【摘要】：利用1971—2015年浙南7縣(市、區(qū))早春(2—4月)逐日氣溫觀測(cè)資料,根據(jù)茶葉早春霜凍的氣象災(zāi)害指標(biāo),采用多尺度趨勢(shì)方法分別從空間、時(shí)間分析浙南茶葉早春霜凍的氣候變化特征,并利用Mann-Kendall檢驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證浙南茶葉早春霜凍的變化趨勢(shì)和突變轉(zhuǎn)折。結(jié)果表明:浙南茶葉早春霜凍發(fā)生次數(shù)較高,年均發(fā)生天數(shù)為16.8天,其中2月發(fā)生早春霜凍的可能性最高,且以輕度和重度霜凍為主。早春霜凍的空間分布結(jié)構(gòu)由東南面向西北面遞增,青田縣發(fā)生早春霜凍的可能性最低,縉云縣發(fā)生的可能性最高。茶葉早春霜凍日數(shù)的長(zhǎng)期變化趨勢(shì)表現(xiàn)為顯著減少,且極端最低氣溫上升趨勢(shì)明顯,即浙南茶葉早春出現(xiàn)低溫霜凍的可能性減小。浙南茶葉早春霜凍減少發(fā)生的突變點(diǎn)在20世紀(jì)80—90年代,且在21世紀(jì)初減少趨勢(shì)最為顯著。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily observation data of air temperature in early spring (February-April) of 7 counties (cities and districts) in southern Zhejiang from 1971 to 2015, according to the meteorological disaster index of early spring frost of tea, the multi-scale trend method is adopted from space, respectively. The climate change characteristics of early spring frost in southern Zhejiang tea were analyzed in time. Mann-Kendall test was used to verify the change trend and abrupt change of early spring frost in southern Zhejiang tea. The results showed that the occurrence times of early spring frost in southern Zhejiang tea were higher, the average annual occurrence time was 16.8 days, and the possibility of early spring frost occurred in February was the highest, and the main reason was mild and severe frost. The spatial distribution structure of early spring frost increased from southeast to northwest. The possibility of early spring frost was the lowest in Qingtian County and the highest in Jinyun County. The long-term change trend of frost days in early spring of tea showed that the number of frost days decreased significantly, and the extreme minimum temperature increased obviously, that is, the possibility of low temperature frost in early spring of tea in southern Zhejiang decreased. The sudden changes of early spring frost reduction in southern Zhejiang tea occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, and the trend of decrease in early spring frost was the most significant in the beginning of the 21st century.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)大氣科學(xué)學(xué)院;浙江省麗水市氣象局;浙江省氣候中心;
【基金】：公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY201306037) 麗水氣候生態(tài)創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)項(xiàng)目(2015-1-2)資助
【分類號(hào)】：S571.1;S425
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本文編號(hào)：2462462