【摘要】：探究氣候變化背景下作物水熱資源利用效率變化情況是挖掘糧食高產(chǎn)潛力、實現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基礎,對于優(yōu)化糧食作物布局以及應對未來氣候變化趨勢具有重要意義。本文基于1993-2013年吉林省24個氣象站點的逐日氣象數(shù)據(jù)和農(nóng)業(yè)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),按照作物積溫需求劃分出水稻、玉米和大豆的氣候種植界限,對因氣候變暖而增加的種植區(qū)域(敏感區(qū))內水、熱資源有效利用情況進行評估。結果表明:①1993-2013年吉林省積溫帶明顯東擴,水稻和玉米的氣候種植界限東擴到敦化-靖宇-臨江一線,大豆的氣候種植界限東擴到吉林省最東部的長白縣;②三種作物敏感區(qū)內熱量資源利用效率低于非敏感區(qū),但水資源利用效率均高于非敏感區(qū)。1993-2013年作物敏感區(qū)內水熱資源利用效率均呈現(xiàn)出增長趨勢,年均增長率顯著高于非敏感區(qū);③水稻和玉米敏感區(qū)內水熱資源產(chǎn)出效率均高于非敏感區(qū),但大豆敏感區(qū)內產(chǎn)出效率低于非敏感區(qū)。結論:氣候變暖對研究區(qū)內水熱資源效率的提高表現(xiàn)出明顯的正效應。從水、熱資源優(yōu)化利用的角度,研究區(qū)可適當向東擴展玉米和水稻的種植面積,但要加強農(nóng)田灌溉系統(tǒng)和灌溉技術,降低水稻的水資源約束情況。同時避免研究區(qū)最東部安圖、長白等地糧豆的盲目擴種,減少熱量資源的約束風險。
[Abstract]:Exploring the change of crop water and heat resource utilization efficiency under the background of climate change is the basis for excavating the high yield potential of grain and realizing the sustainable development of agriculture. It is of great significance for optimizing the distribution of grain crops and coping with the trend of climate change in the future. Based on the daily meteorological data and agricultural statistics of 24 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1993 to 2013, the climatic planting limits of rice, corn and soybean are divided according to the accumulated temperature demand of crops. The effective utilization of water and heat resources in the growing area (sensitive area) due to climate warming was evaluated. The results showed that: (1) the accumulated temperate zone of Jilin Province expanded eastward from 1993 to 2013, the climatic planting boundary of rice and maize expanded eastward to Dunhua-Jingyu-Linjiang line, and the climatic planting limit of soybean expanded eastward to Changbai County in the easternmost part of Jilin Province; (2) the utilization efficiency of heat resources in the sensitive areas of three crops was lower than that in the non-sensitive areas, but the utilization efficiency of water resources was higher than that in the non-sensitive areas. The utilization efficiency of water and heat resources in the sensitive areas of crops showed an increasing trend from 1993 to 2013. The average annual growth rate was significantly higher than that in the non-sensitive region. 3The output efficiency of water and heat resources in sensitive region of rice and maize was higher than that of non-sensitive area, but the output efficiency of soybean sensitive area was lower than that of non-sensitive area. Conclusion: climate warming has a significant positive effect on the improvement of water and heat resource efficiency in the study area. From the point of view of optimal utilization of water and heat resources, the area of maize and rice planting can be extended to the east properly in the study area, but the irrigation system and irrigation technology should be strengthened to reduce the constraint of rice water resources. At the same time, the blind seed expansion of grain beans in Antu, Changbai and other places in the eastern part of the study area was avoided, and the restriction risk of caloric resources was reduced.
【作者單位】： 中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學土地資源管理系;北京市規(guī)劃委員會懷柔分局;
【基金】：2016年度全國農(nóng)用地質量等級更新調查與監(jiān)測項目(2016-02-02) 國家自然科學基金項目(41271110,41372132) 國家科技支撐計劃項目(2015BAD06B01)
【分類號】：S162

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