【摘要】：【目的】如何高效利用土地資源、提高耕地集約度是當前科學研究的主要問題,但如何科學預測耕地集約度則一直是研究難點�！痉椒ā炕诠枮I市耕地集約利用現(xiàn)狀,運用熵權、變異系數(shù)組合賦權法、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡、障礙因子診斷法等揭示哈爾濱市耕地集約利用水平發(fā)展趨勢及耕地集約利用影響因素,為耕地集約利用發(fā)展方向及提高耕地集約利用度提供理論依據(jù)。【結果】結果表明:(1)1985~2014年哈爾濱市耕地集約利用水平平均值為0.346 2,處于相對集約狀態(tài);2015~2024年哈爾濱市耕地集約利用水平呈穩(wěn)定上升態(tài)勢,耕地集約利用度均值為0.475,處于高度集約狀態(tài);1985~2024年耕地集約利用水平以相對平穩(wěn)態(tài)勢發(fā)展,且并未出現(xiàn)較大波動,40年間哈爾濱市耕地集約利用平均值達0.409 6,處于較集約狀態(tài)。(2)從準則層指標障礙度來看,耕地產(chǎn)出效率和投入強度對耕地集約利用水平的影響較大,并且呈現(xiàn)不斷上升的趨勢,耕地產(chǎn)出效率和投入強度年均增長速率為8.69%、7.82%,耕地利用程度和耕地利用可持續(xù)性年均下降速率為4.86%、5.73%,耕地集約利用水平的主要障礙因子是灌溉指數(shù)、單位耕地面積農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人員、農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比、單位播種面積糧食產(chǎn)量等�！窘Y論】運用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡對哈爾濱市耕地集約利用水平進行科學預測,用障礙因子診斷法診斷耕地集約利用障礙因子,能為研究哈爾濱市耕地集約利用發(fā)展趨勢提供理論支撐。
[Abstract]:[objective] how to efficiently utilize land resources and improve cultivated land intensive degree is the main problem of current scientific research, but how to scientifically predict cultivated land intensive degree is always the research difficulty. [methods] based on the present situation of cultivated land intensive utilization in Harbin, Using entropy weight, coefficient of variation combined weighting method, BP neural network, obstacle factor diagnosis method to reveal the development trend of intensive use of cultivated land and the influencing factors of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin. The results show that: (1) the average level of cultivated land intensive utilization in Harbin from 1985 to 2014 is 0.346 2, which is in a relatively intensive state; From 2015 to 2024, the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin showed a steady rising trend, and the average value of intensive utilization of cultivated land was 0.475, which was in a highly intensive state. From 1985 to 2024, the level of intensive use of cultivated land developed relatively steadily, and there was no significant fluctuation. The average value of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin reached 0.409 6 during the 40 years, which was in a relatively intensive state. (2) judging from the index barrier degree of criterion level, the average value of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin was 0.409 in the past 40 years. The cultivated land output efficiency and input intensity have a great influence on the cultivated land intensive utilization level, and show a rising trend. The average annual growth rate of cultivated land output efficiency and input intensity is 8.69 and 7.82, and the average annual growth rate of cultivated land output efficiency and input intensity is 8.69 and 7.82, respectively. The average annual decreasing rate of cultivated land use degree and cultivated land use sustainability is 4.86% 5.73%. The main obstacle factors of cultivated land intensive utilization level are irrigation index, agricultural employees per unit area of cultivated land, and the ratio of agricultural output value. [conclusion] BP neural network is used to predict the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin, and the diagnostic method of obstacle factor is used to diagnose the obstacle factor of intensive utilization of cultivated land. It can provide theoretical support for studying the trend of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin.
【作者單位】： 東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學資源與環(huán)境學院;東北大學土地管理研究所;
【基金】：黑龍江省國土資源科研項目“黑龍江省兩大平原現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)綜合配套改革試驗區(qū)土地管理制度創(chuàng)新研究”(黑國土科研01411)
【分類號】：F323.211

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