【摘要】：基于華南地區(qū)64個(gè)基本氣象站1961—2012年逐日氣象資料,采用公認(rèn)的龍眼寒害災(zāi)害指標(biāo),結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究的方法與模擬技術(shù),并考慮龍眼寒害災(zāi)損減產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在不同生育期(花芽生理期、花芽形態(tài)分化期、休眠期)之間的差別,對(duì)1961—2012年華南地區(qū)龍眼不同發(fā)育時(shí)段的寒害災(zāi)損最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定量評(píng)估與分析.結(jié)果表明:在花芽生理期,各地區(qū)龍眼受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的是輕度寒害,其次為重度寒害,最后為中度寒害;不同寒害致災(zāi)等級(jí)對(duì)各地龍眼造成的危害程度不同,在輕度寒害威脅下,龍眼受災(zāi)輕重次序?yàn)楦＝�、廣東和海南、廣西,中度寒害威脅下,龍眼受災(zāi)輕重次序?yàn)楹Ｄ稀V東和廣西、福建,重度寒害威脅下,龍眼受災(zāi)輕重次序?yàn)楹Ｄ�、廣東和廣西、福建.在花芽形態(tài)分化期,各地區(qū)龍眼受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的是輕度寒害,其次為重度寒害,最后為中度寒害;該時(shí)段內(nèi)不同寒害致災(zāi)等級(jí)對(duì)各地龍眼造成的危害程度相似,龍眼受災(zāi)輕重次序均為海南、廣東和廣西、福建.在休眠期,各地區(qū)龍眼寒害受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的是輕度寒害,其次為重度寒害,最后為中度寒害;該時(shí)段內(nèi)不同寒害致災(zāi)等級(jí)對(duì)各地龍眼造成的危害程度不完全相同,輕度和重度寒害威脅下,各地龍眼受災(zāi)輕重次序?yàn)楹Ｄ稀V東和廣西、福建,中度寒害威脅下,海南和廣西龍眼受災(zāi)最輕,其次為廣東,福建受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重.同一寒害致災(zāi)等級(jí)下,不同發(fā)育時(shí)段龍眼寒害災(zāi)損減產(chǎn)最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)差異顯著:輕度寒害威脅下,各地區(qū)龍眼在花芽生理期受到危害最重,其次為花芽形態(tài)分化期,休眠期危害最輕;中度和重度寒害威脅下,各地區(qū)龍眼在花芽生理期受到危害最重,其次為休眠期,花芽形態(tài)分化期危害最輕.
[Abstract]:Based on the daily meteorological data of 64 basic weather stations in South China from 1961 to 2012, the recognized index of longan chilling disaster was adopted, and the method and simulation technology of agricultural meteorological disaster risk research were combined. And consider the difference of the risk of loss reduction of longan cold injury in different growth stages (physiological stage of flower bud, morphological differentiation of flower bud, dormancy stage). A quantitative assessment and analysis of the maximum risk of cold damage in different development periods of longan in South China from 1961 to 2012 was carried out. The results showed that in the physiological period of flower bud, the most serious damage of longan was mild chilling injury, followed by severe chilling injury, and finally moderate chilling injury. The degree of damage to longan caused by different degrees of chilling injury is different. Under the threat of mild cold injury, the order of disaster severity of longan is Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan, Guangxi, and moderate cold threat, and the order of Longan disaster is Hainan. Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian, severe cold damage threat, Longan disaster severity order is Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian. In the period of flower bud morphological differentiation, the most serious disaster of longan was mild chilling injury, followed by severe chilling injury, and finally moderate chilling injury. In this period, the degree of damage caused by different degrees of cold damage to longan is similar, and the order of disaster severity of longan is Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian. During dormancy period, the most serious cold injury of longan was mild chilling injury, followed by severe chilling injury and moderate chilling injury. In this period, the degree of damage to longan caused by different degrees of chilling injury is not exactly the same. Under the threat of mild and severe chilling injury, the order of disaster severity in different regions of Longan is Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian, and moderate cold threat. Hainan and Guangxi Longyan the least affected, followed by Guangdong, Fujian the worst disaster. Under the same degree of cold injury, the maximum risk index of reducing the yield of longan in different development period was significant. Under the threat of mild cold injury, Longan suffered the most serious damage in the physiological period of flower bud, followed by the period of morphological differentiation of flower bud. The danger of dormancy is the least; Under the threat of moderate and severe chilling injury, Longan suffered the most serious damage in the physiological period of flower bud, followed by dormancy period, and the least harm was in the period of flower bud morphological differentiation.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院;寧德市氣象局;
【基金】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專(zhuān)項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(2013Z008)資助~~
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S667.2;S426

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