氣候變化下我國主要糧食作物種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)性研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-15 19:34
【摘要】：面對氣候變化給各類生態(tài)系統(tǒng)造成的風(fēng)險,積極應(yīng)對和適應(yīng)氣候變化顯得尤為重要。農(nóng)業(yè)作為嚴(yán)重依賴于自然資源的生產(chǎn)活動,容易受到氣候變化的沖擊,表現(xiàn)出脆弱性和易損性,所以農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)適應(yīng)氣候變化迫在眉睫。小麥、玉米和水稻作為主要的糧食作物,對農(nóng)業(yè)穩(wěn)產(chǎn)和人類生計安全至關(guān)重要,確保三大糧食作物在氣候變化下種植適宜區(qū)分布的穩(wěn)定,是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)較好適應(yīng)氣候變化的關(guān)鍵。論文在評估60多年來熱量、水分和越冬條件等農(nóng)業(yè)水熱資源時空變化趨勢的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮小麥、玉米和水稻生長對光熱水需求的差異,分別確定影響三種作物生長的氣候指標(biāo),并將土壤和海拔分布作為地表限制因子一并作為Max Ent模型的環(huán)境變量,三種作物的農(nóng)業(yè)觀測站位置信息作為物種變量,分別模擬春小麥和冬小麥、春玉米和夏玉米、單季稻和雙季稻適生區(qū)的時空分布,利用空間疊加得到小麥、玉米和水稻適生區(qū)在農(nóng)區(qū)和海拔上的時空分異,以及三種作物種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化能力的時空分異。在此基礎(chǔ)上將三種作物適生區(qū)進(jìn)行空間疊加得到主要糧食作物種植適生區(qū)的時空變化,分析主要糧食作物種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力。論文得到以下結(jié)論:(1)60多年來農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源的變化方向與變化趨勢存在區(qū)域差異:自南向北日照時數(shù)低值區(qū)在侵占高值區(qū),全國多數(shù)區(qū)域日照時數(shù)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢。年平均氣溫、0℃積溫及持續(xù)天數(shù)、最冷月平均氣溫和年極端最低氣溫等值線均在不同程度上向北移動,但最熱月平均氣溫等值線在淮河流域南退,使得黃河中下游和江淮地區(qū)最熱月平均氣溫多為下降趨勢;全國80%以上區(qū)域初霜日推后、終霜日提前造成無霜期延長;400mm等降水量線的東段向東北移動,北方和南方地區(qū)降水分別表現(xiàn)為下降和上升趨勢,但是南方降水天數(shù)在減少。(2)60多年來小麥、玉米種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在北方和南方農(nóng)區(qū)分別升高和下降,而水稻在北方和南方農(nóng)區(qū)則是分別下降和升高。換言之,小麥種植環(huán)境適宜等級在內(nèi)蒙古及長城沿線區(qū)、黃土高原區(qū)和黃淮海區(qū)等升高,在西南區(qū)、長江中下游區(qū)、華南區(qū)和甘新區(qū)等下降;玉米種植環(huán)境適宜等級在東北區(qū)、內(nèi)蒙古及長城沿線區(qū)、黃土高原區(qū)和黃淮海區(qū)升高,在西南區(qū)、長江中下游區(qū)和華南區(qū)基本在下降。(3)60年來小麥、玉米和水稻種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在海拔上存在時空分異:小麥種植適宜等級在第一階梯上升高,在第二和第三階梯上下降,玉米種植適宜等級變化方向在第一階梯上存在區(qū)域差異,在第二階梯上適宜等級升高,水稻種植適宜等級在第一和第二階梯上分別下降和升高,故小麥、玉米和水稻種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在第一階梯上分別是升高、多方向性和下降,在第二階梯上依次是下降、升高和升高。(4)近30年來小麥、玉米和水稻種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力大多隨年代波動。在農(nóng)區(qū)上,除華南區(qū)水稻種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力提高,其余農(nóng)區(qū)小麥和水稻種植環(huán)境的適應(yīng)能力多隨年代波動。玉米種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在東北區(qū)升高,在內(nèi)蒙古及長城沿線區(qū)和黃淮海區(qū)下降,在其余農(nóng)區(qū)多處于波動中;在海拔上,第一階梯上的小麥和玉米、第二階梯上的小麥和水稻適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力基本在隨年代波動,不過第一階梯上水稻和第二階梯上玉米種植不適宜區(qū)逐漸擴(kuò)大,致使二者種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力下降。(5)60年來主要糧食作物種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在農(nóng)區(qū)和省區(qū)上均存在時空分異。在農(nóng)區(qū)上,東北區(qū)、黃淮海區(qū)和長江中下游區(qū)主要糧食作物種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在下降,其余農(nóng)區(qū)多是上升;在省區(qū)上,主要糧食作物種植適宜等級在黑龍江、山東、江西、湖南、廣東和廣西等省份有所下降,在吉林、遼寧、內(nèi)蒙古和新疆自治區(qū)、河南、湖北、安徽和江蘇等省份有所上升。故主要糧食作物種植環(huán)境適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力在北方省份多上升,在南方省份多下降。論文的主要貢獻(xiàn)在于發(fā)現(xiàn)了中國近60年來主要?dú)鉁氐戎稻�均向北有所遷移,無霜期逐漸延長,但關(guān)鍵等降水量線比較穩(wěn)定等,模擬出氣候變化下春小麥和冬小麥、春玉米和夏玉米、單季稻和雙季稻適生區(qū),耦合生態(tài)學(xué)模型和地理學(xué)空間分析方法豐富了氣候變化科學(xué)中農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)性的研究方法。
[Abstract]:Facing the risk of climate change to all kinds of ecosystems, it is very important to actively cope with and adapt to climate change. Agriculture, as a production activity heavily dependent on natural resources, is vulnerable to the impact of climate change, showing vulnerability and vulnerability, so it is urgent for agricultural production to adapt to climate change. As a major grain crop, it is very important for the stability of agricultural production and the safety of human livelihood. It is the key for agricultural production to adapt to climate change to ensure the stability of the distribution of the three major grain crops in suitable areas under climate change. Considering the difference of photothermal and hydrothermal demand of wheat, maize and rice growth, the climatic indices affecting the growth of three crops were determined, and the soil and elevation distributions were taken as the environmental variables of the Max Ent model as well as the location information of agricultural observation stations for the three crops as species variables. The spatial and temporal distribution of the suitable zones of winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize, single cropping rice and double cropping rice, the spatial and temporal differences of the suitable zones of wheat, maize and rice in the agricultural areas and elevation, and the spatial and temporal differences of the adaptability of the three cropping environments to climate change were obtained by spatial superposition. The paper draws the following conclusions: (1) There are regional differences in the changing direction and trend of Agroclimatic Resources in the past 60 years: the low value area of sunshine hours from south to North occupies the high value area, and most of the regions in China are daily. The average annual temperature, accumulated temperature at 0 C and continuous days, the coldest monthly mean temperature and the annual extreme minimum temperature isoline all moved northward in varying degrees, but the hottest monthly mean temperature isoline retreated southward in the Huaihe River basin, which made the hottest monthly mean temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze and Huaihe River areas mostly descend. The first frost days were delayed and the last frost days were delayed, which resulted in the extension of the frost-free period. The eastern section of the 400 mm isoprecipitation line moved northeastward, while the precipitation in the north and South showed a downward and upward trend, respectively. However, the precipitation days in the South were decreasing. (2) For more than 60 years, the ability of maize planting environment to adapt to climate change was in the northern and Southern agricultural areas. In other words, the suitable level of wheat planting environment in Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall, the Loess Plateau and the Huanghuai Sea increased, while in the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China and Ganxin decreased. In the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China are basically declining. (3) In the past 60 years, the adaptability of wheat, maize and rice planting environment to climate change varies spatially and spatially: the suitable level of wheat planting rises in the first step, and rises in the second and third steps. There are regional differences on the first ladder in the direction of change of suitable grades for maize planting. On the second ladder, the suitable grades for rice planting are higher and lower respectively on the first and second ladders. Therefore, the ability of wheat, maize and rice planting to adapt to climate change is higher on the first ladder. (4) In the past 30 years, the adaptability of wheat, maize and rice planting environment to climate change fluctuated with the years. In the agricultural areas, except South China, the adaptability of rice planting environment to climate change increased, the adaptability of wheat and rice planting environment in other agricultural areas increased. The ability of maize planting environment to adapt to climate change increased in Northeast China, decreased in Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall and Huanghuai Sea, and fluctuated in other agricultural areas. At elevation, the ability of wheat and maize on the first step and wheat and rice on the second step to adapt to climate change basically fluctuated with the times. However, the inappropriate areas for rice and maize planting on the first and second steps gradually expanded, resulting in a decline in their ability to adapt to climate change. In the middle and lower reaches of the region, the ability of the main grain crops to adapt to climate change is declining, while the rest of the agricultural areas are rising; in the provincial areas, the suitable level of the main grain crops is declining in Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, while in Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. The main contribution of this paper is to find that the main temperature contours in China have moved northward in the past 60 years, and the frost-free period has been gradually extended, but the critical isoprecipitation line is relatively stable. The suitable areas for spring wheat and winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize, single cropping rice and double cropping rice under climate change, coupled ecological models and geographic spatial analysis methods enrich the research methods of agricultural adaptability in climate change science.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S162.5
本文編號：2244295
[Abstract]:Facing the risk of climate change to all kinds of ecosystems, it is very important to actively cope with and adapt to climate change. Agriculture, as a production activity heavily dependent on natural resources, is vulnerable to the impact of climate change, showing vulnerability and vulnerability, so it is urgent for agricultural production to adapt to climate change. As a major grain crop, it is very important for the stability of agricultural production and the safety of human livelihood. It is the key for agricultural production to adapt to climate change to ensure the stability of the distribution of the three major grain crops in suitable areas under climate change. Considering the difference of photothermal and hydrothermal demand of wheat, maize and rice growth, the climatic indices affecting the growth of three crops were determined, and the soil and elevation distributions were taken as the environmental variables of the Max Ent model as well as the location information of agricultural observation stations for the three crops as species variables. The spatial and temporal distribution of the suitable zones of winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize, single cropping rice and double cropping rice, the spatial and temporal differences of the suitable zones of wheat, maize and rice in the agricultural areas and elevation, and the spatial and temporal differences of the adaptability of the three cropping environments to climate change were obtained by spatial superposition. The paper draws the following conclusions: (1) There are regional differences in the changing direction and trend of Agroclimatic Resources in the past 60 years: the low value area of sunshine hours from south to North occupies the high value area, and most of the regions in China are daily. The average annual temperature, accumulated temperature at 0 C and continuous days, the coldest monthly mean temperature and the annual extreme minimum temperature isoline all moved northward in varying degrees, but the hottest monthly mean temperature isoline retreated southward in the Huaihe River basin, which made the hottest monthly mean temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze and Huaihe River areas mostly descend. The first frost days were delayed and the last frost days were delayed, which resulted in the extension of the frost-free period. The eastern section of the 400 mm isoprecipitation line moved northeastward, while the precipitation in the north and South showed a downward and upward trend, respectively. However, the precipitation days in the South were decreasing. (2) For more than 60 years, the ability of maize planting environment to adapt to climate change was in the northern and Southern agricultural areas. In other words, the suitable level of wheat planting environment in Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall, the Loess Plateau and the Huanghuai Sea increased, while in the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China and Ganxin decreased. In the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China are basically declining. (3) In the past 60 years, the adaptability of wheat, maize and rice planting environment to climate change varies spatially and spatially: the suitable level of wheat planting rises in the first step, and rises in the second and third steps. There are regional differences on the first ladder in the direction of change of suitable grades for maize planting. On the second ladder, the suitable grades for rice planting are higher and lower respectively on the first and second ladders. Therefore, the ability of wheat, maize and rice planting to adapt to climate change is higher on the first ladder. (4) In the past 30 years, the adaptability of wheat, maize and rice planting environment to climate change fluctuated with the years. In the agricultural areas, except South China, the adaptability of rice planting environment to climate change increased, the adaptability of wheat and rice planting environment in other agricultural areas increased. The ability of maize planting environment to adapt to climate change increased in Northeast China, decreased in Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall and Huanghuai Sea, and fluctuated in other agricultural areas. At elevation, the ability of wheat and maize on the first step and wheat and rice on the second step to adapt to climate change basically fluctuated with the times. However, the inappropriate areas for rice and maize planting on the first and second steps gradually expanded, resulting in a decline in their ability to adapt to climate change. In the middle and lower reaches of the region, the ability of the main grain crops to adapt to climate change is declining, while the rest of the agricultural areas are rising; in the provincial areas, the suitable level of the main grain crops is declining in Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, while in Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. The main contribution of this paper is to find that the main temperature contours in China have moved northward in the past 60 years, and the frost-free period has been gradually extended, but the critical isoprecipitation line is relatively stable. The suitable areas for spring wheat and winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize, single cropping rice and double cropping rice under climate change, coupled ecological models and geographic spatial analysis methods enrich the research methods of agricultural adaptability in climate change science.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S162.5
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