【摘要】：基于紅棗果園冬季實測溫度,對比分析果園內(nèi)、外溫度變化差異及其與氣象站氣溫關系,采用線性回歸方法根據(jù)氣象站氣溫資料建立果園實際溫度預測模型。結果表明,冬季紅棗果園內(nèi)、外平均氣溫差異不顯著,但日變化趨勢基本一致;最低氣溫變化存在顯著差異(P0.05),果園內(nèi)平均最低氣溫比果園外偏高1.2℃,極端低溫偏高1.7℃。冬季氣象站平均氣溫顯著高于果園內(nèi)外氣溫變化(P0.01),分別偏高1.2、1.3℃。氣象站最低氣溫的差異變化幅度大于平均氣溫的差異,日最低氣溫比果園內(nèi)、外偏高1.5℃、2.7℃,冬季極端低溫偏高1.4℃、2.7℃。果園小氣候的形成顯著影響極端低溫的差異變化,冬季氣溫比氣象站溫度偏低,利用氣象站氣溫變化預測果園內(nèi)外實際氣溫差異比較可行,關系模型檢驗絕對誤差在0.3~0.8℃之間,可為紅棗果園開展冬季凍害監(jiān)測預警服務提供借鑒參考。
[Abstract]:Based on the measured temperature of jujube orchard in winter, the variation of temperature in and out of the orchard and its relationship with the temperature of meteorological station were compared and analyzed. Based on the temperature data of meteorological station, the prediction model of actual temperature of orchard was established by linear regression method. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average air temperature in winter jujube orchard, but the diurnal variation trend was basically the same, and the lowest temperature was significantly different (P0.05). The mean minimum temperature in the orchard was 1.2 鈩，

本文編號：2244458