【摘要】：本文基于1961-2010年長江中下游地區(qū)內426個氣象站點的逐日降水數(shù)據(jù),以湖北省單站洪澇等級標準為初始指標,對該指標臨界值在-50~100mm范圍內進行同步增減,結合該區(qū)7省(市)的洪澇歷史災情記載和農業(yè)洪澇受災面積,采用逐步剔除的方法篩選指標,構建分省農業(yè)洪澇等級指標并驗證指標的合理性,分析該區(qū)近50年農業(yè)洪澇災害的時空變化�；陂L江中下游地區(qū)單季稻種植區(qū)297站點和夏玉米種植區(qū)91站點1961-2015年逐日降水數(shù)據(jù),耦合作物生育期和澇漬災情數(shù)據(jù),統(tǒng)計分生育時段、分等級洪澇災害樣本,采用偏相關分析、多元線性回歸、正態(tài)性檢驗、樣本均值區(qū)間估計等方法,借助SPSS和ArcGIS軟件,分別基于過程降雨量和有效降雨量的95%可信區(qū)間的下限值,構建了分省單季稻分生育時段洪澇災害等級指標和夏玉米分生育時段澇漬災害等級指標,并驗證了指標的合理性,依據(jù)構建的指標對1961-2010年種植區(qū)內單季稻和夏玉米分生育時段澇漬災害進行時空分析和風險分析。主要結論如下:(1)近50年,農業(yè)洪澇災害發(fā)生總體呈增加的趨勢,但不同區(qū)域和年代際的差異明顯;農業(yè)洪澇多發(fā)區(qū)主要位于在江西中北部、江漢平原、浙江沿海,以及安徽、江西和浙江3省交界地帶;呈現(xiàn)明顯的江南多、江北少的分布特征;20世紀60年代至80年代農業(yè)洪澇發(fā)生次數(shù)相對平穩(wěn),90年代洪澇明顯增多,21世紀初洪澇又相對減少。(2)近50年,單季稻洪澇災害的多發(fā)區(qū)主要位于鄱陽湖、浙江沿海、及恩施張家界一帶;災害總體呈增加趨勢,尤以移栽期至孕穗期的增加趨勢明顯。移栽-分蘗期單季稻洪澇災害風險概率高值區(qū)主要位于鄱陽湖和黃山一帶、恩施、黃岡等地區(qū);拔節(jié)-孕穗期和抽穗-成熟期大部分地區(qū)的洪澇風險概率低于4%。移栽-分蘗期單季稻洪澇災害風險指數(shù)普遍較高,基本在0.6以上;拔節(jié)期至成熟期,風險指數(shù)高值區(qū)主要位于浙江沿海地區(qū),其余大部分地區(qū)處于低值區(qū),風險指數(shù)基本低于0.3。(3)近50年,同一生育時段夏玉米澇漬災害發(fā)生次數(shù)隨災害等級增大而減少。澇漬災害的多發(fā)區(qū)主要位于沿江、沿淮和沿海地區(qū),隨著夏玉米生育進程的增加,災害多發(fā)區(qū)總體隨雨帶逐步北移。夏玉米出苗期至抽雄期澇漬災害的發(fā)生在總體上呈增加趨勢,抽雄-成熟期則以減少的趨勢為主。同一生育時段夏玉米各等級澇漬災害風險概率的空間分布基本一致,且隨著災害等級的增大,風險概率高值區(qū)逐漸縮小。隨著生育進程的增加,澇漬災害風險指數(shù)的高值區(qū)逐漸由西南向東北移動。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily precipitation data of 426 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2010, this paper takes the single station flood grade standard in Hubei Province as the initial index, and synchronously increases or decreases the critical value of the index in the range of -50 ~ 100 mm. Based on the historical records of flood and waterlogging and the area affected by agricultural flood in 7 provinces (cities) in this area, the index of agricultural flood grade is constructed and the rationality of the index is verified by using the method of selecting the index step by step. The temporal and spatial changes of agricultural flood and waterlogging in this area in recent 50 years are analyzed. Based on the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 at 297 stations of single-cropping rice planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and 91 stations of summer corn planting area, the data of crop growth period and waterlogging disaster were coupled, and the samples of flood and waterlogging disaster were counted. Using partial correlation analysis, multivariate linear regression, normality test, interval estimation of sample mean, and using SPSS and ArcGIS software, based on the lower limit of 95% confidence interval of process rainfall and effective rainfall, respectively. The index of flood and waterlogging disaster grade during the growing period of single cropping rice in different provinces and the waterlogging disaster grade index of summer maize in growing period were constructed, and the rationality of the indexes was verified. According to the constructed indexes, the waterlogging disasters of single-cropping rice and summer maize in the planting area from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed in time and space and the risk was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the last 50 years, the occurrence of agricultural flood and waterlogging has a general increasing trend, but the difference between different regions and decades is obvious, and the agricultural flood prone areas are mainly located in central and northern Jiangxi, Jianghan Plain, Zhejiang coastal area, and Anhui Province. The distribution characteristics of the three provinces in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province are more in the south of the Yangtze River and less in the northern part of the Yangtze River. The frequency of agricultural flooding in the 1960s to 1980s has increased relatively steadily, and the floods in the early 1990s have increased significantly. (2) the floods in the early 21st century have been relatively reduced in the last 50 years. The flood and waterlogging disaster areas of single cropping rice are mainly located in Poyang Lake, the coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the area of Zhangjiajie in Enshi. The disasters generally show an increasing trend, especially from transplanting period to booting stage. The high risk area of single cropping rice flood hazard at transplanting-tillering stage is mainly located in Poyang Lake and Huangshan, Enshi, Huanggang, etc. The probability of flood risk in most areas of jointing and booting stage and heading and maturing stage is lower than 4%. The flood hazard risk index of single cropping rice at transplanting-tillering stage was generally high, which was above 0.6. From jointing stage to mature stage, the high value area of risk index was mainly located in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province, and the other areas were in low value area. The risk index was lower than 0.3. (3) in the last 50 years, the number of summer maize waterlogging disaster decreased with the increase of disaster grade. The waterlogging areas are mainly located along the Yangtze River, along the Huaihe River and the coastal areas. With the increase of summer maize growth process, the disaster prone areas generally move northward with the rain belt. The occurrence of waterlogging and waterlogging in summer maize from seedling stage to heading stage showed an increasing trend on the whole, while the trend of decrease was the main trend in the period of heading and maturing. The spatial distribution of waterlogging risk probability of summer maize in the same growing period was basically the same, and with the increase of disaster grade, the high risk probability region gradually decreased. With the increase of growth process, the high value region of waterlogging hazard risk index gradually moved from southwest to northeast.
【學位授予單位】：中國氣象科學研究院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S511.41;S513;S422

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