【摘要】：基于實(shí)際糧食產(chǎn)量與拋荒耕地種植糧食作物條件下糧食總產(chǎn)量關(guān)系的分析方法有助于促進(jìn)耕地紅線制度改進(jìn)。依據(jù)全國糧食總產(chǎn)量、種植面積與耕地面積數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)造2016-2033年糧食產(chǎn)量與耕地面積紅線耦合的基本、法定、過渡、新型與理想耦合紅線標(biāo)準(zhǔn);分析階段性耦合與可持續(xù)耦合兩種升級(jí)路徑。研究表明:2001-2015年,全國耕地面積與糧食產(chǎn)量耦合不足。據(jù)此,提出以新增建設(shè)用地指標(biāo)與拋荒治理面積掛鉤的政策建議;在拋荒比例11.12%的條件下,新增單位面積建設(shè)用地,治理28.85倍拋荒耕地;2017、2021、2025、2029、2033年分別實(shí)現(xiàn)有效利用1.200×10~8hm~2、1.243×10~8hm~2、1.279×10~8hm~2、1.314×10~8hm~2、1.349×10~8hm~2耕地,糧食總產(chǎn)量分別比基期增加4.838×10~6、2.4190×10~7、4.354 2×10~7、5.321 8×10~7、8.824 6×10~7t;紅線耦合系數(shù)分別達(dá)到0.882 471、0.909 740、0.937 008、0.950 643與1;有效利用耕地增加12.5%,糧食總產(chǎn)量提升14.2%。
[Abstract]:The analysis method based on the relationship between the actual grain yield and the total grain yield under the condition of growing grain crops on abandoned cultivated land will help to improve the red line system of cultivated land. Based on the data of total grain yield, planting area and cultivated land area, the basic, legal, transitional, new and ideal coupling red line standard of grain yield and cultivated land area in 2016-2033 is constructed. This paper analyzes the two upgrade paths of stage coupling and sustainable coupling. The study shows that the coupling between cultivated land area and grain yield in China from 2001 to 2015 is insufficient. Under the condition of 11.12% of abandoned land per unit area, the effective utilization of 1.200 脳 10 ~ (8) 脳 10 ~ (8) h ~ (m ~ (-1) ~ (2) ~ (1.279) 脳 10 ~ (8) h ~ (-1) 脳 10 ~ (8) hm ~ (2) ~ (2) 脳 10 ~ (9) 脳 10~8hm~2 land can be realized respectively by controlling 28.85 times of abandoned land in 2017, 2025 ~ (2029) and 2033 years, respectively, according to the policy suggestion of linking the index of new construction land with the area of abandoned land under the condition of 11.12% of abandoned land. The total grain yield increased by 4.838 脳 10 ~ (6) C ~ (6) C ~ (2.4190) 脳 10 ~ (10) C ~ (7) ~ 4.354 2 脳 10 ~ (10) ~ (7) ~ 7 ~ (5.321) 脳 10 ~ (7) ~ (7) ~ 8 脳 10 ~ (7) 脳 10 ~ (7) t respectively, the coupling coefficient of red line reached to 0.882 471t ~ (0.909) 7409 ~ 0.937 0080.950 643 and 1 respectively, and the effective utilization of cultivated land increased by 12.5m, and the total grain yield increased by 14.2g.
【作者單位】： 西安文理學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：2017年西安社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃課題(17J113) 安徽大學(xué)農(nóng)村改革與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展研究院資助(ADNY201503)
【分類號(hào)】：F323.211;F326.11
，

本文編號(hào)：2190838