發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-06 09:50

  本文選題：氣候變化 + 感知��； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球變化中最突出的是氣候變化,氣候變化預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)對(duì)降水與溫度格局產(chǎn)生更為引人注目的影響,特別是對(duì)干旱地區(qū)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)和自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的方方面面產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。內(nèi)蒙古地處干旱半干旱區(qū)域,環(huán)境脆弱,易變,對(duì)氣候變化敏感。內(nèi)蒙古草原是歐亞大陸草原的重要組成部分,是我國(guó)北方溫帶草原中最具有代表性的地帶性植被類型,是我國(guó)牧區(qū)的主體。高度依賴于自然資源的草原畜牧業(yè)對(duì)氣候變化相當(dāng)敏感與脆弱,內(nèi)蒙古牧區(qū)應(yīng)加強(qiáng)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的適應(yīng)能力。結(jié)合常規(guī)氣象監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),采用半結(jié)構(gòu)式訪談和開放式問卷調(diào)查、二項(xiàng)式邏輯回歸、多元概率模型(MVP)以及地理信息系統(tǒng)技術(shù),論文對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古牧區(qū)四個(gè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)類型,即草甸草原區(qū)(呼倫貝爾市)、典型草原區(qū)(錫林郭勒盟)荒漠草原區(qū)(四子王旗)與荒漠(阿拉善盟)進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,重點(diǎn)關(guān)注該區(qū)域牧民對(duì)氣候變化的感知、對(duì)氣候變化的適應(yīng)以及影響牧民認(rèn)為適應(yīng)政策有效性的因素三個(gè)方面。論文主要結(jié)論如下:(1)1981～2014年,研究區(qū)域的年平均氣溫均呈顯著的上升趨勢(shì)(P0.05),呼倫貝爾市、錫林郭勒盟、阿拉善盟與四子王旗的年均溫變化率分別為:0.26℃/10年、0.36℃/10年、0.41℃/10年與0.46℃/10年;冬季均溫只有呼倫貝爾市呈下降趨勢(shì),變化率為0.36℃/10年(p0.05),其他區(qū)域冬季平均氣溫呈不顯著的上升趨勢(shì);年降水量變化均不顯著(P0.05)。(2)牧民對(duì)氣候變化的感知并不完全準(zhǔn)確,與歷史變化趨勢(shì)不完全一致。牧民對(duì)氣候變化的感知存在區(qū)域差異,生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟(jì)背景的差異性,使得牧民對(duì)氣候變化產(chǎn)生不同的感知;同時(shí)牧民對(duì)氣候變化的感知受到了"草畜雙承包責(zé)任制"與設(shè)立"公共草場(chǎng)"措施實(shí)施的影響。(3）牧民應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化所采取的短期應(yīng)急適應(yīng)措施主要是購(gòu)買飼料圈養(yǎng)、出售牲畜、借貸、遷移、畜種改良以及保證牲畜充足的飲水與加強(qiáng)疾病防控,而"聯(lián)戶經(jīng)營(yíng)"和建立"公共草場(chǎng)"也許是更適于內(nèi)蒙古牧業(yè)區(qū)域應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的長(zhǎng)期的適應(yīng)策略。(4）從牧民的角度出發(fā),在內(nèi)蒙古牧區(qū)陸續(xù)出臺(tái)的一系列草場(chǎng)政策中,"草畜平衡"政策是牧民認(rèn)同的、可以維持草場(chǎng)資源可持續(xù)利用及進(jìn)行氣候變化適應(yīng)的最有效策略。(5)區(qū)域背景的差異性、牧民自身狀況和牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)信息是牧民做出適應(yīng)決策的主要影響因素。年均溫與年降水量越高,牧民越傾向于采取"禁牧"與"傳統(tǒng)的游牧"作為適應(yīng)措施。男性為戶主的家庭更愿意選擇政府出臺(tái)的政策作為適應(yīng)措施,隨著戶主的受教育程度的提高,他們更愿意根據(jù)自家情況選擇適合、合理的措施來(lái)主動(dòng)適應(yīng);年長(zhǎng)者會(huì)更支持"草畜平衡"政策的實(shí)施。生計(jì)方式單一與年凈收入的增加,使牧民不傾向于采取政府的政策。(6)牧民在進(jìn)行氣候變化的主要限制因素為資金匱乏、水資源不足、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不完善、知識(shí)技術(shù)欠缺與勞動(dòng)力不足;而提高生計(jì)多樣性、增加畜牧生產(chǎn)科技培訓(xùn)和技術(shù)指導(dǎo)以及保證畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐活動(dòng)信息來(lái)源暢通是提高牧民適應(yīng)能力的方法,因地制宜、自下而上的管理并尊重牧民的自愿性、主動(dòng)性、和創(chuàng)造性,才是制定政策的最佳方式。
[Abstract]:The most prominent global change is climate change. Climate change is expected to have a more dramatic impact on the pattern of precipitation and temperature, especially in all aspects of the social and economic systems and natural ecosystems in arid areas. Inner Mongolia is located in arid and semi-arid areas, the environment is fragile, changeable, and climate change is changed. The Inner Mongolia grassland is an important part of the Eurasian steppe. It is the most representative zonal vegetation type in the temperate grassland in the north of China. It is the main body of the pastoral areas in China. The grassland animal husbandry highly dependent on natural resources is very sensitive and fragile to climate change, and the adaptation of climate change should be strengthened in Inner Mongolia pastoral area. Combining with the conventional meteorological monitoring data, the paper uses semi structural interview and open questionnaire survey, binomial logistic regression, multivariate probability model (MVP) and geographic information system technology. The paper has four ecological system types in Inner Mongolia pastoral area, namely meadow steppe region (Hulun Buir), and the typical steppe region (Xilinguole Meng) desert steppe region (four children) Wang Qi) conducted an investigation with the desert (Alxa League), focusing on three aspects of the region's perception of climate change, adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the effectiveness of pastoral adaptation to policy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1981~2014 years, the annual average temperature in the research area has a significant upward trend (P0.05). The annual average temperature change rates of Hulun Buir, Xilinguole Meng, Alxa League and Siziwangqi are 0.26, 0.36, /10, 0.41, /10 and 0.46, respectively. In winter, the average temperature in Hulun Buir is decreasing, the rate of change is 0.36 /10 years (P0.05), and the average temperature in winter in the region is not significantly rising. The change of quantity was not significant (P0.05). (2) the perception of herdsmen's perception of climate change was not completely accurate and not exactly consistent with the trend of historical change. There were regional differences and differences in ecological and economic background of herdsmen's perception of climate change, which made the herdsmen have different perception of climate change; and the perception of herdsmen to climate change was "grass". (3) the short-term emergency adaptation measures adopted by the herdsmen to cope with the climate change mainly include the purchase of feed captivity, the sale of livestock, the loan, the migration, the improvement of the livestock, the guarantee of adequate livestock drinking water and the prevention and control of the increase of the disease, and the "joint operation" and the establishment of a "public pasture" It is a long-term adaptation strategy that is more suitable for Inner Mongolia pastoral areas to cope with climate change. (4) from the perspective of herdsmen, in a series of grassland policies in succession in Inner Mongolia pastoral areas, the policy of "balance of livestock and livestock" is the most effective strategy for maintaining the sustainable utilization of grassland resources and adapting to climate change. (5) regional back. The difference of landscape, the status of the herdsmen and the information of livestock production are the main factors affecting the adaptation of the herdsmen. The higher the annual average temperature and the annual precipitation, the more the herdsmen tend to adopt the "forbidden grazing" and "traditional nomadic" as the adaptation measures. The family of male headed by the male is more willing to choose the policy of the government to be adopted as the adaptation measures, with the head of the household. They are more willing to choose suitable and reasonable measures to adapt themselves according to their own situation; the elderly will support the implementation of the policy of "balance of livestock and livestock". A single livelihood and an increase in annual net income make the herdsmen not inclined to adopt a government policy. (6) the main restrictive factors for the herdsmen in the climate change are funded. Lack of gold, insufficient water resources, imperfect infrastructure, lack of knowledge and technology and inadequate labor force; increasing the diversity of livelihoods, increasing scientific and technological training and technical guidance for livestock production, and ensuring unimpeded information sources of animal husbandry practice activities are the methods to improve the adaptability of herdsmen, local conditions, bottom-up management and respect for Herdsmen Voluntariness, initiative and creativity are the best ways to make policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.6;S811.1

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本文編號(hào)：2102390