本文選題：輸沙量 + 極端降雨��； 參考：《農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報》2017年08期

【摘要】：基于松花江流域及其周邊共43個氣象站點1960—2014年逐日降雨數(shù)據(jù)及佳木斯水文站輸沙量數(shù)據(jù),采用Mann-Kendall非參數(shù)趨勢分析方法、小波周期性分析和雙累積曲線法,分析了流域內(nèi)7個極端降雨指數(shù)和輸沙量的動態(tài)變化趨勢,在此基礎(chǔ)上定量評估了流域極端降雨變化對輸沙量的影響。結(jié)果表明:1960—2014年間,松花江流域7個極端降雨指數(shù)(最大1 d降雨量(RX1day)、連續(xù)5 d最大降雨量(RX5day)、降雨強度指數(shù)(SDII)、大于95%分位值強降雨量(P95pTOT)、大雨量(HP)、暴雨量(RSP)和汛期降雨量(FSPTOT))皆呈階段性波動變化,存在16~20 a的大周期和5~6 a的小周期變化特征,但近55 a各極端降雨指數(shù)整體上呈不顯著的變化趨勢;期間佳木斯水文站輸沙量的變化趨勢與7個極端降雨指數(shù)的變化趨勢類似。松花江流域各極端降雨指數(shù)與輸沙量均存在極顯著相關(guān)性(p0.01),其中RX5day、P95pTOT與輸沙量的相關(guān)性最顯著。雙累積曲線分析顯示,流域輸沙量與各極端降雨指數(shù)關(guān)系的突變點均發(fā)生在1977年。與基準(zhǔn)期(1960—1977年)相比,1978—2014年松花江流域各極端降雨指數(shù)對輸沙量變化的影響在3.09%~15.24%之間,其中SDII變化對輸沙量的影響最大(15.24%),其次是FSPTOT(14.81%)和RX5day(14.34%)。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily rainfall data of 43 meteorological stations in Songhua River basin and its surrounding area from 1960 to 2014 and the data of sediment transport in Jiamusi hydrological station, the dynamic variation trend of 7 extreme rainfall index and sediment transport volume in the basin is analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend analysis method, the wavelet periodic analysis and the double cumulative curve method. The effects of extreme rainfall on the sediment transport were evaluated quantitatively. The results showed that from 1960 to 2014, 7 extreme rainfall indices (maximum 1 D rainfall (RX1day), 5 d maximum rainfall (RX5day), rainfall intensity index (SDII), heavy rainfall (P95pTOT), rainfall (HP), heavy rainfall (RSP) and flood season decreased in the Songhua River basin. Rainfall (FSPTOT) is all stage fluctuation, there is a large cycle of 16~20 A and the small cycle of 5~6 a, but the extreme rainfall index of near 55 A is not significant on the whole, and the change trend of sediment transport in Jiamusi hydrological station is similar to that of 7 extreme rainfall index. The extreme rainfall in Songhua River Basin There is a very significant correlation between the number and the amount of sediment transport (P0.01), of which the correlation between RX5day and P95pTOT is the most significant. The double cumulative curve analysis shows that the catastrophe points of the relationship between the sediment transport volume and the extreme rainfall index are all in 1977. Compared with the datum period (1960 to 1977), the extreme rainfall index of the Songhua River basin from 1978 to 2014 is the same. The change of sediment load is affected by 3.09%~15.24%, of which SDII change has the greatest impact on sediment discharge (15.24%), followed by FSPTOT (14.81%) and RX5day (14.34%).
【作者單位】： 西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)水土保持研究所黃土高原土壤侵蝕與旱地農(nóng)業(yè)國家重點實驗室;中國科學(xué)院水利部水土保持研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41571263)
【分類號】：S157.1

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