本文選題：雙季稻 + 低溫災(zāi)害��； 參考：《中國氣象科學(xué)研究院》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文基于南方雙季稻種植區(qū)708個(gè)氣象站1961-2010年的逐日氣象資料和雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生等級的氣象行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),通過各氣象站低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生次數(shù)傾向率的計(jì)算,揭示了近50年雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生趨勢的地理分布特征。采用信息擴(kuò)散法,綜合考慮各等級低溫災(zāi)害的發(fā)生概率和發(fā)生強(qiáng)度,構(gòu)建了各氣象站雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù),揭示了近50年雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的地理分布特征�；�1960-2010年74項(xiàng)大氣環(huán)流特征量資料、采用因子膨化、相關(guān)性分析法,建立了雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)、增加趨勢區(qū)、低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和減少趨勢區(qū)歷年第一次低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生等級的逐步回歸預(yù)測模型�；�8項(xiàng)氣象因子資料,采用Fisher判別分析法,建立了雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)早稻未來10天、晚稻未來5天的低溫災(zāi)害等級逐日滾動(dòng)預(yù)警模型。主要結(jié)論如下:(1)近50年南方雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害以減少趨勢為主,增加趨勢相對不明顯。早稻春季低溫災(zāi)害呈增加趨勢的地區(qū)主要位于陜西種植區(qū)、四川種植區(qū)北部、云南種植區(qū)中部、廣西北部和廣東中北部等地,增加速率約在0-0.05次/10a;粳稻寒露風(fēng)呈增加趨勢的地區(qū)主要位于湖北東部、湖南中東部、江西西部、廣西大部、廣東和福建交界等地,增加速率基本為0-0.04次/10a;秈稻寒露風(fēng)呈增加趨勢的地區(qū)主要位于云南種植區(qū)西部和東南部,增加速率超過0.1次/10a。(2)近50年早稻春季低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高值區(qū)主要位于湖南南部、江西南昌以南、浙江南部、福建大部以及廣西和廣東北部等地,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)超過0.15。粳稻和秈稻寒露風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高值區(qū)主要位于陜西種植區(qū)、四川種植區(qū)北部和云南種植區(qū)大部,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)分別超過0.2和0.5。(3)基于74項(xiàng)大氣環(huán)流特征量資料,建立了雙季稻Ⅰ區(qū)(高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū))、Ⅱ區(qū)(增加趨勢區(qū))、Ⅲ區(qū)(低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和減少趨勢區(qū))歷年第一次低溫災(zāi)害發(fā)生等級的逐步回歸預(yù)測模型。早稻Ⅰ區(qū)、Ⅱ區(qū)、Ⅲ區(qū)逐步回歸預(yù)測模型平均外延預(yù)測基本一致正確率分別是100%、100%、83.3%。粳稻Ⅰ區(qū)、Ⅱ區(qū)、Ⅲ區(qū)逐步回歸預(yù)測模型平均外延預(yù)測基本一致正確率分別是83.3%、83.3%、100%。秈稻Ⅰ區(qū)、Ⅱ區(qū)、Ⅲ區(qū)逐步回歸預(yù)測模型平均外延預(yù)測基本一致正確率均是83.3%。(4)基于Fisher判別分析建立了雙季稻低溫災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)早稻未來10天、晚稻未來5天的低溫災(zāi)害等級逐日滾動(dòng)預(yù)警模型。早稻春季低溫災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)平均回代基本一致正確率是95.5%,平均外延預(yù)測基本一致正確率是90.5%。粳稻寒露風(fēng)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)平均回代基本一致正確率是83.1%,平均外延預(yù)測基本一致正確率是74.2%。秈稻寒露風(fēng)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)平均回代基本一致正確率是79.5%,平均外延預(yù)測基本一致正確率是80.3%。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily meteorological data of 708 weather stations in southern double-cropping rice growing area from 1961 to 2010 and the meteorological industry standard for the occurrence of low-temperature disasters of double-cropping rice, the paper calculates the frequency tendency of low-temperature disasters in each meteorological station. The geographical distribution characteristics of low temperature disasters of double cropping rice in recent 50 years were revealed. By using the information diffusion method and considering the occurrence probability and intensity of the low-temperature disasters of different grades, the comprehensive risk index of low-temperature disasters of double-cropping rice in various weather stations was constructed, and the geographical distribution characteristics of the low-temperature disasters of double-cropping rice in the last 50 years were revealed. Based on the data of 74 general circulation characteristics from 1960 to 2010, the high risk area of low temperature disaster of double cropping rice was established by factor expansion and correlation analysis, and the trend area was increased. A stepwise regression prediction model for the first low temperature disaster occurrence grade in the low risk and reduction trend area. Based on the data of 8 meteorological factors, Fisher discriminant analysis was used to establish a daily rolling warning model of early rice in the next 10 days and late rice in 5 days in the high risk area of low temperature disaster of double cropping rice. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the last 50 years, the trend of low temperature disaster in Southern double cropping rice was mainly decreasing, but the increasing trend was not obvious. The areas with an increasing trend of early rice low temperature disasters in spring are mainly located in Shaanxi, northern Sichuan, central Yunnan, northern Guangxi and central Guangdong, etc. The increasing rate of japonica rice Cold Dew is about 0 to 0. 05 times / 10 a. The areas with increasing trend of Cold Dew wind are mainly located in eastern Hubei, central and eastern Hunan, western Jiangxi, most of Guangxi, the border of Guangdong and Fujian, etc. The increasing rate of Cold Dew in indica rice is mainly located in the west and southeast of Yunnan planting area, and the increase rate is more than 0.1 times / 10a.f.) in the last 50 years, the high risk area of spring low temperature disaster of early rice is mainly located in southern Hunan. South of Nanchang, south of Zhejiang, most of Fujian, and northern Guangxi and Guangdong, the risk index exceeds 0. 15. The high wind risk areas of japonica rice and indica rice were mainly located in Shaanxi province, northern Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, and the risk index exceeded 0.2 and 0.5.3 respectively) based on the data of 74 atmospheric circulation characteristics. A stepwise regression model was established for predicting the first occurrence grade of low temperature disasters in region I (high risk area), region 鈪，

本文編號：2043923