本文選題：河北平原 + DEA模型　； 參考：《青海師范大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源是人類賴以生存和發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)性自然資源和戰(zhàn)略性經(jīng)濟資源,也是世界上最珍貴的自然資源。隨著人口的增長和社會經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展,農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)及城市用水對水資源的需求大幅增長,水危機成為21世紀全球面臨的重大問題,同時為人類水資源的可持續(xù)利用帶來強有力的挑戰(zhàn)。農(nóng)業(yè)是我國的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),其用水所占比例最大,且目前我國大部分灌區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)排灌設(shè)施還不完善,用水管理措施粗放,水價偏低,用水浪費且水污染嚴重。人們開始意識到必須采取有效的手段對水資源進行配置和利用。因此,農(nóng)業(yè)水價政策無疑是解決農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉用水浪費及污染問題的一個有效途徑。本文在國內(nèi)外研究經(jīng)驗的基礎(chǔ)上,針對河北平原農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉用水存在的主要問題,從經(jīng)濟學角度出發(fā),秉著公平和平等、成本和利潤補償、水價補貼以及可持續(xù)發(fā)展的水價制定原則,運用柯布-道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)模型及成本收益等方法,利用糧食生產(chǎn)的成本模型、需求模型以及農(nóng)戶收益最大化原則等理論基礎(chǔ)確定農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水價模型,并對征收農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水價后的補貼政策進行了探討。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)根據(jù)柯布-道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)以及數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)模型計算結(jié)果,2013年河北平原冬小麥-夏玉米生產(chǎn)整體處于規(guī)模報酬遞減的狀態(tài),該研究區(qū)在該時間點上投入已經(jīng)達到飽和或者是呈現(xiàn)出過剩的狀態(tài);河北平原7地市無論是純技術(shù)效率、規(guī)模效率還是綜合技術(shù)效率均為無效,冬小麥-夏玉米生產(chǎn)效率提升空間較大。該地區(qū)冬小麥-夏玉米生產(chǎn)在灌溉、肥料投入均存在較大冗余、機械投入的冗余水平較低,而產(chǎn)量亦還有增加的空間,可通過優(yōu)化投入模式,降低生產(chǎn)成本并提高糧食生產(chǎn)能力,減少由于過量灌溉、施肥導致的地下水超采和水土資源污染的風險,實現(xiàn)“節(jié)本增效”的綜合目標。(2)通過對糧食生產(chǎn)成本、糧食需求以及水分生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的分析,根據(jù)利潤最大化原則最終確定河北平原農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水價模型,并利用河北平原冬小麥-夏玉米2013年調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)及統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)計算可得該地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水價為0.34元/m3。(3)河北省為推進農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水價改革,促進農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)約用水,制定了“一提一補”、“超用加價”農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水價改革及獎補辦法。該政策主要目的是節(jié)水,而較少考慮農(nóng)戶收益問題,因此,本研究從農(nóng)戶的收益即糧價補貼入手,以期為完善農(nóng)業(yè)補貼政策提供參考。糧價補貼的兩種情況:第一是按農(nóng)戶現(xiàn)收益計算。針對農(nóng)戶現(xiàn)階段收益情況,若調(diào)整水價后仍保持目前的灌溉量、產(chǎn)量及收益,則應每公頃平均補貼616.58元,即每千克糧食補貼0.09元。第二按農(nóng)村人均收益計算。從農(nóng)戶的生產(chǎn)實際看,我省平原區(qū)目前農(nóng)戶平均人數(shù)按4.3人計算,每公頃平均收益17607元,則應每公頃補貼10548.67元,即每千克糧食補貼1.46元。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the basic natural resources and strategic economic resources for human survival and development, and are also the most precious natural resources in the world. With the rapid growth of population and the rapid development of social economy, the demand for water resources in agriculture, industry and cities has increased dramatically, and the water crisis has become a major problem facing the world in the 21st century. At the same time, the sustainable use of human water resources brings a strong challenge. Agriculture is the basic industry of our country, and the proportion of water consumption is the largest. At present, the irrigation and drainage facilities in most irrigation areas in China are not perfect, the water management measures are extensive, the water price is on the low side, the water is wasted and water pollution is serious. People are beginning to realize that effective means must be taken to allocate and utilize water resources. Therefore, agricultural water price policy is undoubtedly an effective way to solve the problem of water waste and pollution in agricultural irrigation. Based on the research experience at home and abroad, this paper aims at the main problems of agricultural irrigation water in Hebei plain, from the angle of economics, with fairness and equality, compensation of cost and profit. The principle of water price subsidy and sustainable development, using Cobb-Douglas production function, data envelopment model and cost-benefit model, and using the cost model of grain production. Based on the demand model and the maximization principle of farmers' income, the agricultural irrigation water price model is determined, and the subsidy policy after collecting the agricultural irrigation water price is discussed. The results show that according to Cobb-Douglas production function and data envelopment model, the winter wheat and summer maize production in Hebei Plain in 2013 is in the state of decreasing returns on a scale. At this time point, the investment in the research area has reached saturation or is showing a state of excess; the seven cities in Hebei plain are ineffective in terms of pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency or comprehensive technical efficiency. The productivity of winter wheat and summer maize is improved greatly. In this area, winter wheat-summer maize production in irrigation, fertilizer input has greater redundancy, mechanical input redundancy level is low, and the yield also has room to increase, we can optimize the input mode, Reducing production costs and increasing food production capacity, reducing the risk of overexploitation of groundwater and pollution of soil and water resources due to excessive irrigation, fertilization, and achieving the integrated objective of "cost savings and efficiency gains" through the cost of food production, Based on the analysis of grain demand and water production function, according to the principle of profit maximization, the agricultural irrigation water price model of Hebei Plain was finally determined. Using the survey data and statistical data of winter wheat and summer maize in Hebei Plain in 2013, we can get that the agricultural irrigation water price in this area is 0.34 Yuan / m3. In order to promote the reform of agricultural irrigation water price and promote agricultural water conservation, Hebei Province has formulated "one proposal and one supplement". The reform of agricultural irrigation water price and the method of compensation. The main purpose of this policy is to save water, but less to consider the income of farmers. Therefore, this study starts with the income of farmers, that is, grain price subsidies, in order to provide a reference for improving the policy of agricultural subsidies. Two cases of grain price subsidies: the first is based on the current income of farmers. In view of the present situation of farmers' income, if the current irrigation amount, yield and income are maintained after adjusting the water price, the average subsidy per hectare should be 616.58 yuan, that is, 0.09 yuan per kilogram of grain. The second is based on rural per capita income. From the actual production of farmers, the average number of farmers in plain area of our province is calculated as 4.3 people, the average income per hectare is 17607 yuan, then the subsidy should be 10548.67 yuan per hectare, that is, 1.46 yuan per kilogram grain subsidy.
【學位授予單位】：青海師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F323.213;S274

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