本文選題：漬澇災(zāi)害 + 影響評估��； 參考：《江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)》2016年09期

【摘要】：根據(jù)農(nóng)田水分平衡原理,基于日漬澇災(zāi)害指標(biāo)和權(quán)重指數(shù)構(gòu)建漬澇災(zāi)害過程指數(shù)模型,使用江蘇歷史農(nóng)業(yè)旱澇災(zāi)情、土壤水分自動觀測資料確定模型參數(shù),建立漬澇災(zāi)害過程等級判別指標(biāo)體系,系統(tǒng)分析江蘇省農(nóng)田漬澇時(shí)空分布規(guī)律和氣候變化趨勢。結(jié)果表明,江蘇漬澇災(zāi)害蘇南西南部最多,淮北西北部最少。1年4季中,夏季漬澇災(zāi)害漬澇災(zāi)害過程占全年40%~60%,漬澇最為頻繁也最為嚴(yán)重;春季漬澇災(zāi)害南北差異最大,蘇南地區(qū)年均近2次,淮北西部地區(qū)約2年1遇;秋季淮河以南地區(qū)發(fā)生頻率明顯輕于春季,但發(fā)生程度重于春季,淮北地區(qū)發(fā)生頻率和程度略高于春季;冬季漬澇災(zāi)害過程全年最輕,淮北地區(qū)無中等程度以上的災(zāi)害。54年來,淮河以南地區(qū)漬澇災(zāi)害過程呈"W"形波動,經(jīng)歷了3個(gè)相對高峰期,分別為20世紀(jì)60年代前期、20世紀(jì)80年代后期至21世紀(jì)前期、2010年至今,以20世紀(jì)80年代后期至21世紀(jì)前期發(fā)生最為頻繁;淮北地區(qū)漬澇災(zāi)害過程呈"L"形變化,經(jīng)歷了20世紀(jì)60年代初期有1個(gè)相對高峰期后,年際變化小,基本在3~5次之間波動。從氣候變化趨勢看,蘇南地區(qū)春季漬澇災(zāi)害呈現(xiàn)一定的減少趨勢,江淮之間夏季漬澇災(zāi)害呈現(xiàn)顯著的增多趨勢,淮河以南地區(qū)冬季漬澇災(zāi)害呈現(xiàn)顯著的增加趨勢。
[Abstract]:According to the principle of farmland water balance, based on the daily waterlogging disaster index and weight index, the waterlogging disaster process index model is constructed, and the model parameters are determined by using the drought and flood disaster situation of historical agriculture in Jiangsu Province and the soil moisture automatic observation data. The classification index system of waterlogging process was established, and the temporal and spatial distribution of farmland waterlogging in Jiangsu Province and the climate change trend were systematically analyzed. The results show that the waterlogging disaster is the most in the southwest of Jiangsu Province and the least in the northwestern part of Huaibei. In the four seasons of one year, the waterlogging process in summer accounts for 40% of the whole year, the waterlogging is the most frequent and the most serious, and the difference between the north and the south of the waterlogging disaster in spring is the greatest. The frequency of occurrence in the south of Huaihe River in autumn is lighter than that in spring, but the occurrence degree is more serious than in spring, and the frequency and degree of occurrence in Huaibei area is slightly higher than that in spring. The process of waterlogging in winter is the lightest in the whole year, and there is no disaster of more than moderate degree in Huaibei area. In the past 54 years, the waterlogging disaster process in the south of Huaihe River has fluctuated in the shape of "W" and has experienced three relative peak periods. From the early 1960s to the early 21st century, from the late 1980s to the early 21st century, the most frequent occurred from the late 1980s to the early 21st century, and the waterlogging process in Huaibei area changed in the shape of "L". After a relative peak in the early 1960s, the interannual variation was small and fluctuated between 3 times and 5 times. According to the trend of climate change, the waterlogging disaster in spring in southern Jiangsu shows a certain decreasing trend, the waterlogging disaster in summer between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River shows a significant increase trend, and the waterlogging disaster in winter in the south of Huaihe River shows a significant increase trend.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省氣象服務(wù)中心;鎮(zhèn)江市氣象局;江蘇省作物栽培技術(shù)指導(dǎo)站;南京信息工程大學(xué)應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)院;江蘇省氣象局;
【基金】：中國氣象局氣象關(guān)鍵技術(shù)集成與應(yīng)用(編號:CMAGJ2014M20) 江蘇省科技廳科技支撐計(jì)劃(編號:BF2014411) 農(nóng)業(yè)部公益性行業(yè)計(jì)劃(編號:201203029)
【分類號】：S422

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