氣候變化背景下水稻高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險及其對產(chǎn)量的可能影響
發(fā)布時間：2018-05-13 08:54
本文選題：水稻 + 高溫?zé)岷?/strong> ； 參考：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】：中國是世界上最大的水稻生產(chǎn)國,水稻種植面積和總產(chǎn)量分別居世界的第二和第一位。全球氣候變暖,極端天氣事件增加的背景下,近年來中國大部分地區(qū)水稻生長季溫度升高,高溫?zé)岷Φ膹姸群皖l率增加,已經(jīng)嚴重影響水稻生產(chǎn)。研究利用1981-2009年水稻觀測數(shù)據(jù),1961-2010年氣象數(shù)據(jù)和未來2021-2050年RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5氣候情景數(shù)據(jù),分析過去50a和未來30a中國水稻高溫敏感期(孕穗-乳熟)高溫?zé)岷︻l率、強度的時空變化情況,并嘗試利用1981-2009年水稻高溫敏感期高溫積溫和水稻減產(chǎn)率建立經(jīng)驗回歸關(guān)系式,評估2021-2050年RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5氣候情景下,中國水稻輕、中、重度減產(chǎn)概率的空間分布,以期了解歷史和未來近期中國水稻高高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險的變化及其對產(chǎn)量的影響,為合理安排水稻生產(chǎn),水稻高溫減產(chǎn)預(yù)估提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。得到的初步結(jié)論如下:1.1961-2010年,中國水稻高溫敏感期日最高氣溫超過35℃持續(xù)3d以上的日數(shù)(HSD,以下簡稱高溫日數(shù))和日最高氣溫超過35℃持續(xù)3d以上的有效積溫(HDD,以下簡稱高溫積溫)平均分別為1.3d和2.0℃·d,高值區(qū)主要位于長江中下游地區(qū)。過去50a,高溫日數(shù)和高溫積溫均以1980s為界限先減后增,總體無顯著的變化趨勢。從空間上來說,HDD在長江以北中部地區(qū)減少,在重慶和浙江大部增加,年際間波動則體現(xiàn)“南方水稻區(qū)大,東北、云貴小”的分布。水稻生長季各月HDD的變化不同,以江南(II)7月HDD的增加速率最快,為1.2℃·d/10a,其次為華南(III)8月,增加0.8℃·d/10a,東北地區(qū)6-7月拔節(jié)孕穗期HDD略有增加,而長江以北(I)和云貴(VI)地區(qū)7~8月HDD有減少的趨勢。2.未來2021-2050年3種RCP情景下,中國大部分地區(qū)水稻高溫敏感期高溫?zé)岷︻l率和強度增加,其中,HSD在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分別增加1.08,1.23和1.49d,HDD分別增加3.89,4.19和4.81℃?d。高溫?zé)岷姸群皖l率增加幅度最大的地區(qū)位于東北大部,長江中下游大部和華南地區(qū)西部,呈東北—西南帶狀分布,增加幅度最小的地區(qū)主要分布于東南沿海地區(qū)和西南大部分地區(qū)。由于基準時段熱量資源的差異,未來RCP情景下各區(qū)域高溫持續(xù)日數(shù)變化特征不同,其中長江流域(I,II)主要表現(xiàn)為持續(xù)5d以上高溫事件的增多,持續(xù)1~2d的高溫事件頻次略有減少,華南(III)主要表現(xiàn)為持續(xù)3~5d高溫事件的增多,東北單季稻區(qū)(V)主要表現(xiàn)為持續(xù)1~5d高溫事件及持續(xù)8d以上高溫事件的增多,而云貴單季稻區(qū)(VI)各級高溫事件頻次在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下依次減少。過去50a,中國水稻高溫中心主要位于湖南北部地區(qū),發(fā)生“南移北進東遷”的移動,未來2021-2050年,高溫中心位于基準時段高溫中心東北方向,北方高溫?zé)岷υ黾臃容^南方更大,未來30年間高溫中心在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分別發(fā)生“南移”,“南移北進”和“北進”的遷移,北方水稻高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險在3種RCP情景下依次加大。3.多元回歸結(jié)果表明,抽穗開花期是水稻對高溫?zé)岷ψ蠲舾械纳A段,其次為灌漿期和全生育期。除東北單季稻區(qū)水稻減產(chǎn)率和SDD32呈顯著的一元二次曲線關(guān)系外,其他各區(qū)水稻的高溫減產(chǎn)率和HDD呈顯著的線性負相關(guān)。減產(chǎn)速率H和高溫減產(chǎn)閾值M的分布特征一致,長江以北單季稻(I)區(qū)最高,其次為江南(II)和華南(III)地區(qū)。HDD均值較高的地區(qū),H和M值也較高�；鶞蕰r段內(nèi),中國水稻高溫減產(chǎn)以輕度為主(L1),風(fēng)險為4.8%,中度(L2)和重度(L3)減產(chǎn)風(fēng)險分別為2.4和0.05%。未來2021-2050年3種RCP情景下,除云貴地區(qū)外,中國水稻輕、中、重度高溫減產(chǎn)風(fēng)險均增加,并且主要表現(xiàn)為中度減產(chǎn)(L1)風(fēng)險的增加,其次依次為重度(L3)和輕度(L1)。其中,水稻輕度(L1)和中度(L2)高溫減產(chǎn)風(fēng)險大幅增加的地區(qū)主要為華南(III)和長江以北水稻區(qū)(I),重度(L3)減產(chǎn)風(fēng)險大幅增加的地區(qū)主要位于東北單季稻區(qū)(V)。
[Abstract]:China is the largest rice producer in the world. The planting area and total output of rice are second and the first in the world. In the background of global warming and extreme weather events, in recent years, the growth of rice in most areas of China has increased, the intensity and frequency of high temperature heat damage have increased, and the rice production has been seriously affected. Using 1981-2009 year rice observation data, 1961-2010 year meteorological data and RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the next 2021-2050 years, the frequency of high temperature heat damage of high temperature sensitive rice (booting - milk) in the past 50A and future 30A Chinese rice was analyzed, and the time and space changes of the intensity were analyzed, and the high temperature accumulated temperature in the high temperature sensitive period of rice was tried to use for 1981-2009 years. The empirical regression formula of rice yield reduction rate was established to assess the spatial distribution of light, medium and severe yield reduction probability in Chinese rice under the 2021-2050 year RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, in order to understand the history and the future changes in the risk of high temperature heat damage and its effect on the yield of rice in the future, to arrange rice production and reduce the high temperature of rice. The preliminary conclusions are as follows. The preliminary conclusions are as follows: in 1.1961-2010, the effective accumulated temperature (HSD, hereinafter referred to as high temperature days) and the daily maximum temperature above 35 degrees centigrade over 35 (HDD, hereinafter referred to as high-temperature accumulated temperature) were respectively 1.3d and 2 C D, respectively, in the high temperature sensitive period of rice in China. The high value area is mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In the past 50a, the number of high temperature days and high temperature accumulated temperature were reduced first and then increased with 1980s. In space, HDD decreased in the middle of the Yangtze River, increased in Chongqing and Zhejiang, and the interannual wave movement reflected "the large, northeast, and small clouds in the South". Distribution. The variation of HDD in the growing season of rice was different. The increase rate of HDD in the south of the Yangtze River (II) in July was the fastest, 1.2. D/10a, followed by Southern China (III) in August, and 0.8. D/10a. The HDD in the jointing stage of the Northeast region was slightly increased at the jointing stage, while 7~8 month HDD in the north of the Yangtze River (I) He Yungui (VI) decreased in the next 2021-2050 years of.2.. In most areas of China, the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage in high temperature sensitive period of rice increased. Among them, HSD increased 1.08,1.23 and 1.49d respectively under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. HDD increased 3.89,4.19 and 4.81? D., respectively, in the large area of Northeast China, the large part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Southern China area. In the western region of the region, the region is distributed in the northeast and southwest, and the area with the smallest increase is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas and most of the southwest. Due to the difference of the calorie resources in the datum period, the characteristics of the constant days of high temperature in different regions under the future RCP situation are different, and the Yangtze River flow field (I, II) is mainly shown as a continuous high temperature event above 5D. In addition, the frequency of high temperature events of continuous 1~2d decreased slightly. Southern China (III) mainly showed increasing 3~5d high temperature events. The Northeast single season rice region (V) was mainly characterized by continuous 1~5d high temperature events and increasing high temperature events above 8D, while the frequency of high temperature events at all levels in the Yunnan Guizhou single season rice region (VI) decreased in order of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the past 2021-2050 years, the center of high temperature in the north of Hunan is located in the north of Hunan. In the next 2021-2050 years, the center of high temperature is located in the northeastern direction of the high temperature center of the datum period, the increase of heat damage in the north is greater than that in the south. In the next 30 years, the center of high temperature is distributed under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. With the migration of "South shift", "Southward moving northward" and "North entering", the risk of high temperature heat damage in northern rice was increased by the multiple regression results of.3. in 3 RCP scenarios, indicating that the heading flowering period was the most sensitive stage for high temperature heat damage in rice, followed by the grain filling period and the full growth period, and the rice yield and SDD32 were significant except in the Northeast single season rice region. There is a significant linear negative correlation between the high temperature yield reduction rate and the HDD of HDD in other regions. The distribution characteristics of the yield reduction rate H and the high temperature reduction threshold M are the same, the highest in the region of the single season rice (I) in the north of the Yangtze River, followed by the region with higher.HDD in the south of the Yangtze River (II) and Southern China (III) region, with higher H and M values. China is in the baseline period. The high temperature reduction of rice is mainly (L1), the risk is 4.8%, the risk of moderate (L2) and severe (L3) reduction is 2.4 and 0.05%. in the next 2021-2050 years, 3 RCP scenarios. In addition to the Yunnan and Guizhou areas, the risk of moderate, moderate and severe high temperature reduction in rice is increased, and the major risk of moderate yield reduction (L1) is increased, followed by severe (L3) and the next. Mildly (L1). Among them, the region of moderate (L1) and moderate (L2) high temperature reduction is mainly in Southern China (III) and north of the Yangtze River region (I), and the region of severe (L3) decrease in yield is mainly located in the Northeast single season rice area (V).
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：S511;S42
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