本文選題：積溫 + 降水量��； 參考：《中國農業(yè)氣象》2017年08期

【摘要】：基于1956-2015年商丘市氣象數(shù)據(jù)和霜凍害資料,研究黃淮冬麥區(qū)商丘市氣象因子與霜凍害的關系,以及氣溫、地溫、相對濕度、風速與草面溫度的偏相關和多元線性回歸關系。結果表明:隨著全球氣溫變暖,商丘市冬春季積溫以4.35℃·d·a~(-1)的速率逐年增加;晚霜凍害除受冷空氣活動影響外,與前期積溫和降水量密切相關,冬春季積溫偏高或降水量偏少的情況下易發(fā)生晚霜凍害;隨著小麥幼穗的發(fā)育,其對低溫的敏感度增加,且可引起霜凍害的最低溫度有逐漸升高的趨勢;氣溫、地表溫度、平均相對濕度、平均風速與草面溫度呈極顯著相關(P0.01),偏相關系數(shù)的大小表現(xiàn)為地表溫度氣溫平均相對濕度平均風速,可見,除氣溫、地表溫度外,平均相對濕度、平均風速也對霜凍害的發(fā)生及輕重程度起關鍵作用;各因子與草面溫度可用模型表述為Y=0.558ST+0.482AT+0.087RH+1.304WS-12.704,經(jīng)檢驗,線性回歸方程成立,可通過該模型對草面溫度進行監(jiān)測,并為未安裝草面溫度傳感器的地區(qū)提供可靠的凍害評估結果。
[Abstract]:Based on the meteorological data of Shangqiu city from 1956 to 2015 and frost freezing injury data, the relationship between meteorological factors and frost damage, partial correlation and linear regression relationship between temperature, ground temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and grass surface temperature in Shangqiu City of Huanghuai Winter Wheat region were studied. The results showed that with the global warming, the accumulated temperature in winter and spring in Shangqiu increased year by year at the rate of 4.35 鈩，

本文編號：1827810