長江中下游地區(qū)一季稻高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險評估與區(qū)劃
發(fā)布時間：2018-04-25 05:31
本文選題：高溫?zé)岷?/strong> + ORYZA2000 ； 參考：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】：水稻在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中具有舉足輕重的地位,而水稻對高溫?zé)岷哂休^高敏感性,加之全球氣候變暖使得高溫?zé)岷π蝿莞鼮閲?yán)峻,因此進(jìn)行一季稻高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險評估具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義,為未來農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中水稻栽培管理、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。選用長江中下游地區(qū)氣象站天氣資料、農(nóng)氣站一季稻資料、HWSD土壤數(shù)據(jù)庫資料。根據(jù)一季稻抽穗開花期高溫?zé)岷Φ牡燃壷笜?biāo),統(tǒng)計逐站逐年各強度發(fā)生頻率,利用ArcGIS分析高溫?zé)岷臻g分布,采用小波分析法分析高溫?zé)岷χ芷谝?guī)律；設(shè)定有無抽穗開花期高溫?zé)岷煞N天氣方案,使用ORYZA2000水稻模型提取災(zāi)損率,進(jìn)而根據(jù)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估模型計算風(fēng)險度,利用ArcGIS完成風(fēng)險評估與區(qū)劃。主要研究結(jié)果如下：(1)一季稻高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生頻率的時空特征。全區(qū)域內(nèi)陸多沿海少,多發(fā)地區(qū)：湖北中西部及東部、湖南中西部及中北部、安徽中西部。高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生頻率的分布面積為輕度中度重度�？偂⑤p、中、重度高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生頻率最高年代分別為60s、OOs、60s、60s,增幅最大年代分別為90s、90s、00s、60s。28a為高溫?zé)岷︻l率的第一主周期,該時間尺度的高溫?zé)岷︻l率呈“多-少-多”的周期變化,2013年后將減少。(2)不同發(fā)育時段或時長的水稻高溫?zé)岷y(tǒng)計,對其發(fā)生規(guī)律的研究結(jié)果有一定影響。本文界定1961—.2013年逐站一季稻抽穗開花期,最頻發(fā)區(qū)為湖北西北部、東南部、中西部及東部。(3)一季稻高溫?zé)岷?zāi)損率高值地區(qū)：江蘇省宿遷南部、淮安南部,浙江省紹興、金華及臺州三市交界處,浙江省杭州西南部、衢州西北部,安徽省黃山,湖南省懷化南部。災(zāi)損率高值區(qū)隨五個年代的移動趨勢：江蘇中部→湖南中北部→湖南中北部及西南部→浙江中部及湖北西南部→浙江中部→安徽東南部。90年代以后災(zāi)損率波動幅度減小,且值略有下降。(4)一季稻高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險度高值地區(qū)：安徽省六安西北部、六安與安慶交界處,湖北省孝感西部、仙桃、荊門東部及中南部,咸寧西北部,湖南省常德、益陽、岳陽三市交界處。
[Abstract]:Rice plays an important role in agricultural production, and rice is highly sensitive to high temperature heat damage, and global warming makes the situation of high temperature heat damage more severe. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to assess the risk of high-temperature heat damage in one-cropping rice, and to provide scientific basis for rice cultivation management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the future agricultural production. The weather data of meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the HWSD soil database data of the first cropping rice in the agricultural gas station were selected. According to the grade index of high temperature heat damage in heading and flowering stage of first cropping rice, the frequency of high temperature heat damage was calculated year by year, the spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage was analyzed by ArcGIS, and the cycle law of high temperature heat damage was analyzed by wavelet analysis. Two weather schemes with or without high temperature heat damage in heading and flowering period were set up, and ORYZA2000 rice model was used to extract the disaster loss rate, and then the risk degree was calculated according to the disaster risk assessment model, and the risk assessment and regionalization were completed by ArcGIS. The main results are as follows: 1) temporal and spatial characteristics of the frequency of high temperature heat damage in rice. The whole region has more and less coastal areas: central-west and eastern Hubei, central-central Hunan and central-north, central-west Anhui. The distribution area of the frequency of hyperthermia was mild, moderate and severe. The highest frequency of total, light, moderate and severe high temperature heat damage occurred in 60 s, and the maximum increase period was 90 sg, 90 sm, 60 s. 28a, respectively, which was the first main period of the frequency of high temperature heat damage. The frequency of high temperature heat damage in this time scale shows a period of "more less than more", and will be reduced after 2013. (2) the statistics of high temperature heat damage in rice with different developmental periods or duration have certain influence on the results of the research on the occurrence of the high temperature heat damage. In this paper, we define the flowering period of one-season rice from 1961 to 2013. The most frequent areas are northwest, southeast, middle and eastern part of Hubei, and high value areas of high temperature and heat damage of one season rice: southern Suqian, southern Huaian, Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Province, southern Huai'an, and Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province. The junction of Jinhua and Taizhou, southwest of Hangzhou, northwest of Quzhou, Huangshan of Anhui Province, southern Huaihua of Hunan Province. The high value region of disaster loss rate moves with the trend of five decades: the range of fluctuation of disaster loss rate in the middle of Jiangsu Province and in the middle and southwest of Hunan Province and in the middle of Zhejiang Province and in the southwest of Hubei Province and in the southeast of Anhui Province decreases after the 1990s. And the value decreased slightly. 4) the high risk area of high temperature heat damage of rice in one season: northwest of Anhui Province, junction of Liu'an and Anqing, west of Xiaogan, Xiantao, east and south of Jingmen, northwest of Xianning, Changde, Yiyang of Hunan Province, Yueyang three cities at the junction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：S511;S42
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條
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