本文選題：徑流泥沙　切入點：模型模擬　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：黃土高原地區(qū)水土流失嚴重,水資源短缺,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱。為了遏制嚴重的土壤侵蝕,1999年后,我國在黃土高原地區(qū)實施了大范圍的退耕還林還草等水土保持措施。土地利用及土地覆蓋發(fā)生的顯著變化,深刻影響著黃土高原的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)-水文響應(yīng)過程,成為多領(lǐng)域?qū)＜覍W(xué)者關(guān)注的熱點地區(qū)。本研究以黃土高原丘陵溝壑區(qū)北洛河上游吳起水文站控制范圍為研究區(qū)域,以實測數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),用Mann-kendall非參數(shù)檢驗法等水文統(tǒng)計法對1963-2012年流域的降雨、徑流和輸沙量進行了趨勢和階段分析;解譯Landsat TM影像,分析了流域1995、2007、2010和2014年等不同時期植被覆蓋度和土地利用的時空變化;對SWAT模型進行參數(shù)率定和模型驗證,定量評價了土地利用和氣候變化對徑流量變化的貢獻程度,模擬流域內(nèi)徑流、蒸發(fā)和土壤含水量等地表生態(tài)水文過程并進行時空變化分析;利用修正通用流失方程RUSLE模擬流域內(nèi)土壤侵蝕時空變化趨勢;最后通過設(shè)定不同土地利用和氣候的變化情景,模擬分析了不同情景下的生態(tài)水文響應(yīng)。本研究取得的主要成果如下:(1)采用1979年和2002年為階段劃分時間節(jié)點,分析了流域氣象水文要素的年變化趨勢和階段變化特征。北洛河上游流域1963-2012年間平均降水量為440.3mm。50年間降雨量的變化表現(xiàn)出不顯著的下降趨勢(P0.05)。1963-1978年間降雨量均值為416.9mm,但年降雨量呈不顯著下降趨勢,趨勢線性率為-2.3 mm·a-1;1979-2001年期間降雨量均值為441.9mm,呈不顯著上升趨勢,趨勢線性率為0.2 mm·a-1;2002-2012年間降雨量均值為449.1mm,呈不顯著下降趨勢,下降斜率為-0.4 mm·a-1。(2)流域1963-2012年的徑流量和輸沙量均呈現(xiàn)出顯著減少趨勢(P0.01),年均變率分別為-0.32 mm·a-1、-170.18 t·km-2·a-1。1963-1978年間徑流量均值為31.6mm,呈不顯著下降趨勢,趨勢線性率為-0.9mm·a-1;1979-2001年期間徑流量均值為28.5mm,呈不顯著上升趨勢,趨勢線性率為0.3 mm·a-1;2002-2012年間徑流量均值為16.5mm,呈顯著下降趨勢(P0.05),下降斜率為-0.7 mm·a-1。1963-1978年間年輸沙模數(shù)均值為13828.1 t·km-2·a-1,呈不顯著下降趨勢,趨勢線性率為-851.1 t·km-2·a-1;1979-2001年期間年輸沙模數(shù)均值為10375.1 t·km-2·a-1,呈不顯著上升趨勢,趨勢線性率為148.9 t·km-2·a-1;2002-2012年間年輸沙模數(shù)均值為2023.3 t·km-2·a-1,呈顯著下降趨勢(P0.05),下降斜率為-376.8 t·km-2·a-1。(3)1995年北洛河上游流域內(nèi)以耕地和草地為主,其面積分別占總面積的46.79%和49.94%,呈現(xiàn)出以農(nóng)、牧地為主的土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)特征。2000年,耕地和草地為主要用地類型的格局沒有變化,耕地面積稍有減少。1995-2000年,耕地面積減少了8.8%,林、草地面積分別增加了5.1%、8.5%。而2010年耕地面積銳減68.8%,林、草地面積擴大了6.5倍和27.0%。研究區(qū)農(nóng)、林、草用地面積的數(shù)量結(jié)構(gòu),從1990年的1:0.1:1.1,2000年的1:0.1:1.3,改變?yōu)?010年的1:1.4:4.3。2000-2010年間耕地、草地和林地的變化幅度顯著大于1995-2000期間。從植被覆蓋度分析來看,北洛河上游流域(劉家河站控制范圍)在1995-2014年平均覆蓋度從20.21%增加到51.22%。通過對植被覆蓋度進行分級,并對不同級別間的轉(zhuǎn)化進行分析發(fā)現(xiàn),1995年到2007年,≤40%的低、中低蓋度級別植被的面積數(shù)量迅速和持續(xù)減少,先轉(zhuǎn)化為40-60%的中蓋度植被,到2014年,又迅速向蓋度60-80%和80%的植被轉(zhuǎn)化的特征。海拔越低,坡度越陡,越向陰坡,低蓋度植被向高蓋度植被轉(zhuǎn)化程度越大,面積越廣,三時期植被覆蓋差異越大。(4)SWAT模擬流域近30年中氣候和土地利用變化下的水文響應(yīng)。以1986-1995年為基準期,1996-2005年和2006-2012年分別為氣候和人類活動綜合影響下的兩個變化期。SWAT模擬結(jié)果表明,人類活動變化對徑流減少的貢獻程度從第二階段的56.5%增加至第三階段的77.8%。隨著流域內(nèi)植被覆蓋度逐漸增加,流域時段平均地表徑流量從1986-1995年間的26.8mm,減少至1996-2005年間20.9mm,2006-2012年間的11.9mm。相應(yīng)地,流域時段平均土壤含水量41.8mm,減少到33.7mm和26.9mm。而蒸發(fā)量從362.7mm,增加到370.1mm和406.7mm。空間上地表徑流量和土壤含水量均呈現(xiàn)出由東北部向西南部、南部和東部呈逐漸遞減的趨勢。而蒸發(fā)量在空間上的變化趨勢則與地表徑流量和土壤含水量相反,表現(xiàn)出由北部、東北部地區(qū)逐漸向南部和西南部地區(qū)遞增趨勢。(5)采用RUSLE模型模擬了1990、2000和2010年三時期土壤侵蝕時空變化特征。結(jié)果表明,三時期間流域平均土壤侵蝕模數(shù)從15220.09、6471.08,減小到2591.94t·km-2·a-1。3時期的土壤侵蝕量在地形上的分布表現(xiàn)出趨同性,即高程上均在1475-1575m內(nèi)平均侵蝕模數(shù)和侵蝕量表現(xiàn)出峰值。隨著坡度增加,平均侵蝕模數(shù)增加,流域內(nèi)75%以上的侵蝕量均來自于15°區(qū)域。3時期平均侵蝕模數(shù)均遵循陽坡半陽坡半陰坡陰坡的規(guī)律。(6)分析流域土地利用的地形地貌分布,進行優(yōu)化設(shè)置,模擬產(chǎn)流和侵蝕過程。結(jié)果表明,空間優(yōu)化配置情景下,與原2010年土地利用相比,耕地由原來的14.59%降到9.99%;草地由原來的63.43%下降到49.79%;林地則呈上升趨勢,由20.95%增加到了39.20%。相對于2010年土地利用和土地覆蓋,流域徑流深降低了16.98%;平均侵蝕模數(shù)降低了18.65%。采用2010年土地利用,分析未來氣候情景下的水文響應(yīng)發(fā)現(xiàn),在年尺度下,RCP4.5和RCP8.5兩個情景下的2021-2050模擬徑流深與歷史期模擬值相比均有不同程度的增加。在月尺度下,未來2021-2050年內(nèi),RCP4.5和RCP8.5兩個情景下的氣候數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測徑流深表明,徑流深在1-3月份和10-11月份將會呈現(xiàn)出不同程度的減少趨勢,而6-8月份的徑流深在RCP4.5情景下可能呈現(xiàn)增加的趨勢,在RCP8.5情景下可能呈現(xiàn)出減少的趨勢。
[Abstract]:Serious soil erosion in the Loess Plateau area, the shortage of water resources, fragile ecosystem. In order to curb soil erosion serious, after 1999, China in the Loess Plateau region, the implementation of a large range of returning farmland to forest and grass for soil and water conservation measures. The land use and land cover change was happened, a profound impact on ecosystem of Loess Plateau the hydrological response process, has become a hot area of attention of scholars. This study in Hilly and gully area of Loess Plateau Wuqi Beiluohe river hydrological station control as the study area, based on the measured data, using Mann-kendall nonparametric test method of watershed hydrology statistics 1963-2012 years rainfall, analyzes the trend and stage the runoff and sediment yield; the interpretation of Landsat TM images, analyzed the basin in 199520072010 and 2014 in different periods including vegetation coverage and land use spatial and temporal variation of SWAT; Model parameter calibration and model validation, quantitative evaluation of land use and climate change on the contribution of runoff, runoff simulation, analysis of temporal and spatial variation of evaporation and soil moisture and surface hydrological process; revised universal soil loss equation RUSLE simulation of watershed soil erosion variation with time and space utilization; finally through the change different scenarios of land use and climate, simulation analysis of the eco hydrological response under different scenarios. The main results are as follows: (1) by 1979 and 2002 for the stage division between nodes, analyzed the basin meteorological and hydrological factors change trend and stage change characteristics. The upstream watershed of Beiluohe River 1963-2012 years average precipitation changes during 440.3mm.50 precipitation showed a decrease trend is not significant (P0.05) between.1963-1978 rainfall mean 416.9mm, but The annual rainfall was not significantly decreased, linear trend rate of -2.3 mm and A-1; 1979-2001 years of rainfall mean 441.9mm, showed no significant upward trend, linear trend rate was 0.2 mm - A-1; 2002-2012 years of rainfall mean 449.1mm, was not significantly decreased, decreased mm a-1. slope of -0.4 (2) basin 1963-2012 years of runoff and sediment discharge showed a significant decreasing trend (P0.01), the annual change rate was -0.32 mm A-1, -170.18 t KM-2 a-1.1963-1978 from runoff mean 31.6mm, was not significantly decreased, linear trend rate of -0.9mm - A-1; during the 1979-2001 year runoff mean 28.5mm that was not a significant upward trend, linear trend rate was 0.3 mm - A-1; 2002-2012 years of runoff mean 16.5mm, decreased significantly (P0.05), -0.7 mm a-1.1963-1978 is down slope during the annual sediment transport modulus value was 13828.1 T - KM-2 - A-1 That was not a significant downward trend, linear trend rate was -851.1 T - KM-2 - A-1; during the 1979-2001 years mean annual sediment transport modulus is 10375.1 T - KM-2 - A-1, was not a significant upward trend, linear trend rate of 148.9 T - KM-2 - A-1; 2002-2012 years annual sediment transport modulus value was 2023.3 t KM-2. A-1 was significantly decreased (P0.05), -376.8 t down slope as KM-2 a-1. (3) 1995 the Beiluohe river basin is dominated by farmland and grassland, the area accounted for 46.79% of the total area and 49.94%, showing to the agricultural, rangeland based land use structure for.2000 years, cultivated land and grassland the main land use pattern has not changed, cultivated land area decreased slightly in.1995-2000, arable land decreased by 8.8%, forest, grassland area increased by 5.1% 8.5%., while the cultivated land area in 2010 dropped 68.8%, forest, grassland area increased by 6.5 times and 27. Research area of agricultural, forest, grass land The number of product structure, 1:0.1:1.3 from the 1990 1:0.1:1.12000 year, changed to cultivated land during 1:1.4:4.3.2000-2010 2010, variation of grassland and woodland was higher than 1995-2000. During the period from vegetation coverage analysis, the upstream watershed of Beiluohe River (Liu Jia He Railway Station control range) in 1995-2014 years the average coverage increased from 20.21% to 51.22%. were graded by the vegetation coverage, and the transformation between different levels of analysis, from 1995 to 2007, low than 40%, the number of low level coverage area of vegetation rapid and sustained reduction, first converted into 40-60% in 2014, the characteristics of vegetation coverage, and to the rapid transformation of 60-80% and 80% of the vegetation coverage. The higher the altitude low, the slope is steep, the closer to the north, low coverage vegetation to the high vegetation conversion degree is bigger, more wide area, the three period of vegetation cover the greater the difference. (4) SWAT simulation basin nearly 30 In the year of climate and land use change. The hydrological response to 1986-1995 years for the reference period of 1996-2005 years and 2006-2012 years respectively, the comprehensive effects of climate and human activities under the two changes to the.SWAT simulation results show that the contribution of human activities change on runoff reduction from the second phase of the 56.5% stage with 77.8%. increased to third watershed vegetation coverage increased gradually, the average surface runoff from the basin during the 1986-1995 years of 26.8mm, reduced to 1996-2005 20.9mm, 2006-2012 11.9mm. corresponding to the time river basin average soil water content of 41.8mm, 33.7mm and 26.9mm. to reduce the amount of evaporation from 362.7mm increased to 370.1mm and 406.7mm. space on the surface runoff and soil the water content showed from the northeast to the southwest, South and East is a gradually decreasing trend. While the change of evaporation in space and trend Surface runoff and soil moisture on the contrary, exhibited by the north, northeast to the South and southwest area gradually increasing trend. (5) using RUSLE model to simulate the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of soil erosion in 19902000 and 2010 three period. The results showed that during the three average soil erosion modulus decreased from 15220.096471.08 to distribution 2591.94t - KM-2 - a-1.3 during the period of soil erosion in the terrain shows convergence, including elevation are within the 1475-1575m average erosion modulus and erosion showed a peak. With the increase of slope, the average erosion modulus increased, erosion amount more than 75% within the basin are from 15 ~.3 period were regional average erosion modulus follow on sunny and semi sunny slopes semi shady shady rules. (6) analysis of topography distribution of land use, optimization settings, simulation of runoff and erosion processes. The results show that the optimal allocation of space Under the situation, compared with the original land use in 2010, arable land was reduced from 14.59% to 9.99%; grassland decreased from 63.43% to 49.79%; forest land increased by 20.95%, compared to 2010 increased to 39.20%. of land use and land cover, the runoff decreased by 16.98%; the average erosion modulus decreased by 18.65%. land in 2010 the analysis of future climate scenarios, hydrological response found in the annual scale, 2021-2050 RCP4.5 and two RCP8.5 simulated runoff scenarios and deep historical period simulation value compared to increase in varying degrees. In the month scale, the next 2021-2050 years, the climate data of runoff prediction and RCP8.5 RCP4.5 two under the situation of deep show that the depth of runoff in 1-3 month and 10-11 months will show different degrees of decrease, and the runoff 6-8 month deep under the RCP4.5 scenario may show an increasing trend, in RCP8.5. There may be a decreasing trend in the scene.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S157

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