本文關(guān)鍵詞： 安徽省 氣候變化 糧食生產(chǎn)　出處：《安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),氣候變暖為全球主要?dú)夂蜃兓厔?shì),氣候變化存在很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn),氣候變暖會(huì)導(dǎo)致冰川融化、海平面上升,海水將侵蝕海岸甚至入侵沿海城市。氣候變化也會(huì)使生態(tài)系統(tǒng)遭到破壞,導(dǎo)致生物多樣性的減少等。極端天氣氣候事件的頻率和強(qiáng)度都有增加的趨勢(shì),氣候?yàn)?zāi)害將導(dǎo)致疾病發(fā)生的頻率增加,影響了社會(huì)生活的穩(wěn)定性。農(nóng)業(yè)是生產(chǎn)周期長(zhǎng)、主要受天氣氣候因素影響的產(chǎn)業(yè)。氣候變化可能導(dǎo)致旱澇災(zāi)害高發(fā)、病蟲(chóng)害加重等問(wèn)題,從而導(dǎo)致農(nóng)作物減產(chǎn),農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增大,影響我國(guó)的糧食安全和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定。在氣候變化背景下,正確的農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)性對(duì)策,可以有效減少氣候變化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成的不利影響。本文通過(guò)對(duì)安徽省蚌埠、阜陽(yáng)、合肥、安慶、屯溪五個(gè)代表性地區(qū)的年平均溫度、年降水量、年蒸發(fā)量等農(nóng)業(yè)氣象因子變化及其與農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量關(guān)系的綜合分析,分農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)研究了安徽省農(nóng)業(yè)氣候因子的氣候變化事實(shí)、特征及其與糧食產(chǎn)量的關(guān)系,提出了農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的措施,得出以下結(jié)論:1.安徽省五個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)氣候區(qū)的氣溫呈升高趨勢(shì),其中,年平均溫度整體上由南向北遞減,最大值則出現(xiàn)在安慶地區(qū),為18.5℃,五個(gè)典型性農(nóng)業(yè)氣候區(qū)的氣溫均呈上升趨勢(shì),溫度增長(zhǎng)率分別為0.15℃/10a、0.72℃/10a、0.81℃/10a、0.17℃/10a、0.68℃/10a,增溫最顯著的是合肥,其增溫幅度超過(guò)全國(guó)平均值。2.安徽省五個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)氣候區(qū)的年降水量變化趨勢(shì)較穩(wěn)定,變率則呈增大趨勢(shì),降水量最大差值出現(xiàn)在黃山地區(qū),為1794mm,且山區(qū)降水量高于平原地區(qū)和丘陵地區(qū)。蒸發(fā)則呈下降趨勢(shì),整體上由北向南遞減,最大值出現(xiàn)在阜陽(yáng)地區(qū),為2219.4mm。3.氣候變化對(duì)農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量的影響較大。安徽省五個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)氣候區(qū)的糧食的相對(duì)氣候產(chǎn)量正負(fù)變化頻繁,多數(shù)年份的氣候增減產(chǎn)情況較為一致,其中,氣候增產(chǎn)最大值出現(xiàn)在黃山地區(qū),為0.85 t/hm2,氣候減產(chǎn)最大值出現(xiàn)在合肥地區(qū),為3.84 t/hm2。4.加強(qiáng)對(duì)氣候變化的科學(xué)研究和農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害性天氣的中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)和預(yù)報(bào)。在基礎(chǔ)研究領(lǐng)域(氣溶膠、溫室氣體、固碳)、應(yīng)用研究領(lǐng)域(森林碳匯)、低碳技術(shù)研發(fā)方面,不斷改進(jìn)和提高人類對(duì)氣候變化的研究;加強(qiáng)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害性天氣的中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)而預(yù)報(bào),合理規(guī)劃一個(gè)詳盡的觀測(cè)系統(tǒng)和分析系統(tǒng),同時(shí)建立完善抗災(zāi)體系,聯(lián)系各政府部門(mén)積極配合預(yù)防工作,提高應(yīng)變能力。5.調(diào)整農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、改善農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境、大力推廣適應(yīng)氣候變化的作物新品種。由于氣候變暖,積溫的增加,我省一熟區(qū)、雙季稻區(qū)和三熟區(qū)向北遷移,合理調(diào)整種植結(jié)構(gòu),優(yōu)化種植模式,選育更加適應(yīng)的農(nóng)作物新品種。因地制宜,發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)要適應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)厣鷳B(tài)環(huán)境,因時(shí)因地制宜合理布局各地的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力,從不同方面節(jié)省資源的浪費(fèi),回收利用生態(tài)資源。
[Abstract]:In recent years, global warming has become a major global climate change trend, and there are many risks to climate change. Warming will lead to melting glaciers and rising sea levels. Sea water will erode the coast and even invade coastal cities. Climate change will also destroy ecosystems, reduce biodiversity, etc. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will increase. Climate disasters will lead to an increase in the frequency of disease occurrence and affect the stability of social life. Agriculture is an industry with a long production cycle and mainly affected by weather and climate factors. Climate change may lead to high incidence of drought and waterlogging, aggravated diseases and pests, and so on. As a result, crops are reduced, agricultural production risks are increased, and food security and social stability in China are affected. In the context of climate change, the correct agricultural adaptive countermeasures, It can effectively reduce the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper, the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in five representative areas of Bengbu, Fuyang, Hefei, Anqing and Tunxi in Anhui Province were studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of annual evaporation and other agrometeorological factors and their relationship with crop yield, the facts and characteristics of climate change of agricultural climate factors in Anhui Province and their relationship with grain yield were studied in agricultural areas. The measures to deal with climate change in agriculture field are put forward, and the following conclusions are drawn: 1. The temperature of five agricultural climate regions in Anhui Province shows an increasing trend, in which the annual average temperature decreases from south to north, and the maximum temperature appears at 18.5 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：1513973