本文關(guān)鍵詞： 旱稻 ORYZA模型 干旱強度 產(chǎn)量災(zāi)損 風(fēng)險評估 華北地區(qū)　出處：《干旱地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)研究》2016年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：針對華北地區(qū)旱稻產(chǎn)量年際不穩(wěn)定的問題,利用作物生長模擬技術(shù)與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計相結(jié)合的方法,對華北地區(qū)氣候背景下旱稻生長季內(nèi)干旱風(fēng)險進行了定量評估。以模型模擬的雨養(yǎng)條件下實際蒸散量相對于潛在條件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的虧缺率(即水分虧缺指數(shù)),以雨養(yǎng)條件下產(chǎn)量相對于潛在產(chǎn)量的損失率(即災(zāi)損指數(shù))作為產(chǎn)量災(zāi)損強度評價指標(biāo),從受旱程度以及產(chǎn)量損失兩個角度構(gòu)建干旱風(fēng)險評估模型,進行干旱風(fēng)險評估。結(jié)果表明,華北地區(qū)旱稻全生育期水分虧缺指數(shù)在0.35~0.45之間,其中出苗~穗分化階段指數(shù)值在各生育階段中最高。干旱災(zāi)損指數(shù)變化在0.24~0.50之間,其中河北的西北部、山東北部及河南的南部較高。就干旱強度風(fēng)險及災(zāi)損風(fēng)險而言,空間分布趨勢基本一致,風(fēng)險指數(shù)低的地區(qū)主要分布在河北北部、山東南部等地區(qū),河北中南部、河南大部等地風(fēng)險指數(shù)較高;就綜合風(fēng)險指數(shù)而言,高值區(qū)主要分布在河南的西部和南部、山東北部以及河北中部的部分地區(qū),低值區(qū)主要分布在北京、天津、河北北部、山東大部以及河南北部的大部分地區(qū)。總體上看,華北大部地區(qū)旱稻干旱綜合風(fēng)險較低,但在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)實際中仍不能忽視高風(fēng)險區(qū)的干旱應(yīng)對及防御。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of interannual instability of upland rice yield in North China, the method of combining crop growth simulation technique with mathematical statistics was used. The drought risk of upland rice in growing season under climatic background in North China was quantitatively evaluated. Water deficit index). Taking the loss rate of yield relative to potential yield (disaster loss index) as the evaluation index of yield disaster loss intensity under the condition of rain conservation, the drought risk assessment model was constructed from two angles of drought degree and yield loss. Drought risk assessment was carried out. The results showed that the water deficit index of upland rice in North China was between 0.35 and 0.45 at the whole growth stage. The index of emergence and panicle differentiation stage was the highest in each growing stage, and the dry drought damage index varied from 0.24 to 0.50, especially in the northwest of Hebei Province. In terms of drought intensity risk and disaster loss risk, the spatial distribution trend is basically the same. The areas with low risk index are mainly distributed in northern Hebei, southern Shandong and other areas. The risk index of central and southern Hebei and most of Henan is higher. As far as the comprehensive risk index is concerned, the high value areas are mainly distributed in the west and south of Henan, the northern part of Shandong and the central part of Hebei, while the low value areas are mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and northern Hebei. In general, the drought risk of upland rice in most areas of North China is relatively low, but the drought response and prevention in high risk areas can not be ignored in the agricultural production practice.
【作者單位】： 中國氣象局河南省農(nóng)業(yè)氣象保障與應(yīng)用技術(shù)重點開放實驗室;河南省氣象科學(xué)研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41005058)
【分類號】：S423;S511.6
【正文快照】： 旱稻是從水稻品種通過人工選育而產(chǎn)生的變異型,可以像小麥、玉米一樣在旱地直接播種,一生勿需淹水層,在干旱達到一定程度時輔以適量的灌水即可滿足其生理需求;同時旱稻又具有“水陸兩棲”的特點,在淹水條件下同樣能正常生長并獲得更好的產(chǎn)量水平。旱稻適宜在缺水的低洼地區(qū)或，

本文編號：1488920