本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水稻產(chǎn)量 低溫冷害 敏感性 模擬　出處：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：IPCC第五次評(píng)估報(bào)告指出,1998～2012年間全球地表以平均0.05℃/10a的趨勢(shì)上升。全球變暖背景下,中國近50a增溫速率為0.22℃/10a,明顯高于同期全球或北半球,其中北方和青藏高原較其他地區(qū)增溫顯著。全球氣候變暖背景下作物生育期內(nèi)熱量資源逐年增多,使人們對(duì)低溫冷害的防御程度下降；作物種植界限北移東擴(kuò),早中熟作物品種逐漸被中晚熟品種替代；區(qū)域性或局地低溫冷害發(fā)生頻率增加,低溫冷害損失增加；干旱加劇,人為灌溉導(dǎo)致的致冷效應(yīng)增加,也增加了低溫冷害的發(fā)生概率。水稻是我國最重要的糧食作物之一,其生產(chǎn)關(guān)系到國家和地區(qū)的糧食安全問題。寧夏河套灌區(qū)水稻種植歷史悠久,是全國優(yōu)質(zhì)水稻高產(chǎn)區(qū)之一。河套灌區(qū)的水稻種植以中、晚熟品種為主,水稻生長的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期低溫冷害頻繁發(fā)生,給水稻生長發(fā)育及產(chǎn)量帶來嚴(yán)重影響。因此,研究低溫冷害對(duì)水稻生長發(fā)育的影響有重要的意義。本研究基于DSSAT系統(tǒng)中的CERES-Rice模型,結(jié)合寧夏河套灌區(qū)的歷史氣象資料、土壤資料、水稻田間觀測(cè)試驗(yàn)資料、產(chǎn)量資料等,對(duì)典型水稻品種進(jìn)行遺傳參數(shù)本地化,模擬低溫冷害對(duì)水稻的影響,進(jìn)行不同生育期低溫冷害對(duì)水稻生長發(fā)育及產(chǎn)量影響的評(píng)估,為寧夏河套灌區(qū)水稻生產(chǎn)的決策管理和應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化提供可靠的技術(shù)支持。主要結(jié)論如下：1.作物生長模型的驗(yàn)證：利用寧夏中衛(wèi)站水稻田間試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行CERES-Rice模型的時(shí)間驗(yàn)證。CERES-Rice模型對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量、單位面積籽粒數(shù)、播種至開花期日數(shù)和播種至成熟期日數(shù)均具有較好的模擬能力。利用河套灌區(qū)10個(gè)站點(diǎn)的水稻試驗(yàn)資料進(jìn)行模型在空間上的驗(yàn)證,產(chǎn)量和單位面積籽粒數(shù)觀測(cè)值與模擬值間誤差較小,說明CERES-Rice模型在空間上也具有較好的模擬能力。2.河套灌區(qū)1960～2013年氣候變化分析：1960～2013年河套灌區(qū)的氣溫變化表明,年平均最低氣溫上升趨勢(shì)顯著,年平均最高氣溫上升趨勢(shì)較小。近30a氣溫平均值(9.64-C)比1974～2003年30a氣溫平均值上升了0.44-C,說明河套灌區(qū)近年持續(xù)增暖。1960～2013年間年降水量下降幅度為3.93mmm/10a。1960～2012年平均日照時(shí)數(shù)為2969h,以65h/10a傾向率下降。21世紀(jì)起日照時(shí)數(shù)減少趨勢(shì)尤其顯著。年平均最高氣溫和最低氣溫發(fā)生了突變,突變時(shí)間分別為1995年和1988年。準(zhǔn)2-4a周期變化在年平均最高氣溫、年平均氣溫、年降水量和年日照時(shí)數(shù)上較為顯著。年最低平均氣溫只存在2.5-3a的顯著周期變化。年平均氣溫除2-4a周期變化外還存在2.5a和3-4a顯著周期變化。年降水量還存在4-8a和4-7a的顯著周期變化。3. CERES-Rice模型對(duì)低溫冷害的模擬驗(yàn)證：通過對(duì)1981～2012年間河套灌區(qū)水稻低溫冷害的模擬結(jié)果表明,產(chǎn)量變化率大部分在-10%-+10%之間,平均RMSE值為526.03 kg/hm2,整體誤差較��；各生育期E值較小,偏離程度較小；EF值均小于0.75,模擬值與觀測(cè)值間符合度較低；D值均大于0.85,模擬值與觀測(cè)值間一致性較高。說明CERES-Rice模型對(duì)水稻低溫冷害也具有較好的模擬能力。4.河套灌區(qū)低溫冷害對(duì)水稻的敏感性模擬研究：1)水稻不同生育期不同程度降低氣溫和同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射2種情景會(huì)造成水稻播種至開花期日數(shù)和播種至成熟期日數(shù)的增加；降低太陽輻射只在苗期對(duì)水稻生育期產(chǎn)生影響。苗期受延遲型低溫冷害對(duì)生育期的影響最大,抽穗揚(yáng)花期受延遲型低溫冷害的影響最小。氣溫降低對(duì)水稻生育期影響較大,而太陽輻射降低對(duì)水稻生育期影響較小,但兩者同時(shí)降低對(duì)水稻生育期影響較大。模型對(duì)水稻苗期低溫冷害模擬中,對(duì)同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射的敏感性最大,對(duì)降低太陽輻射的敏感性最��；模型對(duì)水稻孕穗期、抽穗揚(yáng)花期低溫冷害模擬中,只對(duì)氣溫的降低敏感,對(duì)太陽輻射的降低不敏感;模型對(duì)水稻灌漿期低溫冷害模擬中,對(duì)氣溫的降低敏感性較大,對(duì)同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射的敏感性較小,對(duì)單獨(dú)降低太陽輻射不敏感。2)各生育期不同程度降低氣溫、太陽輻射、氣溫和太陽輻射3種情況均會(huì)造成不同程度的減產(chǎn),且同一情況下持續(xù)時(shí)間越長,對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量的減產(chǎn)率影響越大。降低氣溫對(duì)水稻減產(chǎn)率的影響程度比降低太陽輻射要大,同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射會(huì)造成更大程度的水稻減產(chǎn)率。水稻灌漿期受延遲型低溫冷害對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量影響最大,造成最大減產(chǎn)率,說明灌漿期水稻對(duì)低溫冷害更為敏感。在延遲型低溫冷害中,降低氣溫得到的平均最大減產(chǎn)率為26.5%,降低太陽輻射得到的平均最大減產(chǎn)率為14.25%,同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射得到的平均最大減產(chǎn)率為31.25%；障礙型低溫冷害中,降低氣溫得到的平均最大減產(chǎn)率為2.1%,降低太陽輻射得到的平均最大減產(chǎn)率為6.9%,同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射得到的平均最大減產(chǎn)率為5.85%。模型對(duì)水稻苗期、孕穗期、抽穗揚(yáng)花期和灌漿期受低溫冷害的模擬中,對(duì)同時(shí)降低氣溫和太陽輻射的敏感性最大,對(duì)單獨(dú)降低太陽輻射的敏感性最小。模型對(duì)延遲型低溫冷害和低水平的障礙型低溫冷害模擬效果較好：氣溫低于14-C時(shí),模型對(duì)障礙型低溫冷害模擬效果較差；綜合考慮,模型對(duì)水稻低溫冷害的模擬效果理想。
[Abstract]:IPCC fifth assessment report pointed out that 1998~2012 years of global surface rise by an average of 0.05 DEG /10a trend. Under the background of global warming, China nearly 50A warming rate of 0.22 degrees /10a, significantly higher than the same period of the world or the northern hemisphere, the Northern Qinghai Tibet Plateau and other parts of temperature increase significantly. Under the background of global warming of crop growth during the period of heat resources increased year by year, so that people defense against chilling injury degree decreased; crop planting boundary extending northward and eastward, early maturing crop varieties were gradually in the late maturing varieties substitution; or local area increased frequency of occurrence of chilling injury, loss of chilling damage increase; drought, increase the cooling effect caused by man-made irrigation, also increased the probability of occurrence of chilling injury. Rice is one of the most important food crops in China, its production is related to the national and regional food security in Hetao Irrigation District of Ningxia rice. A long history of cultivation, is one of the high grade rice. Rice planting in Hetao irrigation area, late maturing varieties, a critical period of growth of rice chilling injury occurred frequently, to have a serious impact on rice growth and yield. Therefore, there is important significance to study effects of chilling injury on the growth and development of rice. This study based on CERES-Rice the model of DSSAT system, combined with the historical meteorological data of Ningxia Hetao irrigation area soil, rice field observation data, yield data, genetic parameters of localization of typical rice varieties, effects of chilling injury on rice, assessment of chilling injury in different stages of growth and yield of rice, and provide reliable technical support for decision making management and climate change of rice in Ningxia Hetao Irrigation District production. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. crop growth model test C: CERES-Rice models using the ZhongWei Railway Station in Ningxia rice field test data verified.CERES-Rice model on rice yield, grain number per unit area, sowing to flowering and days from sowing to maturity were both has a good simulation ability. Verified by using the experimental data of rice in Hetao Irrigation District, 10 sites were in the space of the model the error between the simulation value, and the smaller the grain yield per unit area and the number of observations, which indicates that the CERES-Rice model has better simulation analysis of climate change.2. in Hetao irrigation area of 1960~2013 years in space: the results showed that the temperature changes of 1960~2013 years in Hetao Irrigation District, the average annual minimum temperature rise significantly, the average maximum temperature rise nearly 30A smaller. The average air temperature (9.64-C) of more than 1974~2003 years the average temperature of 30a increased by 0.44-C, that in Hetao Irrigation District in recent years continued warming.1960 ~ 2013 The inter annual precipitation decreased from 3.93mmm/10a.1960 to 2012 average sunshine hours for 2969h, down.21 century sunshine hours decreased significantly in 65h/10a. Especially the trend rate of annual average maximum temperature and minimum temperature mutation, mutation time respectively in 1995 and 1988. The quasi periodic variation of 2-4a in the highest annual average temperature, annual average the temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration on the annual mean minimum temperature is more significant. There was significant periodic variations of 2.5-3a. The annual average temperature in the periodic variation of 2-4a is 2.5A and 3-4A significant cycle. Simulation model of CERES-Rice.3. a significant period of annual precipitation variation are also 4-8a and 4-7a on chilling injury the simulation results of rice chilling injury in Hetao Irrigation District in 1981~2012 years showed that most yield change rate between -10%-+10%, the average RMSE value was 526.03 kg/hm2, the whole Body smaller error; the growth period E value is smaller, the smaller degree of deviation; EF values were less than 0.75, the simulated values accord with observed values between the degree is relatively low; the D values are greater than 0.85, the simulation value of high consistent with observations. The results showed that CERES-Rice model has better sensitivity simulation of the simulation ability of.4. low temperature in Hetao Irrigation District chilling injury on rice chilling injury of rice: 1) at different growth stages of rice reduced temperature and also decreased with the increase of 2 scenarios will cause rice sowing to flowering days and sowing to maturity were temperature and solar radiation; reduce solar radiation only at the seedling stage on growth stages of rice seedling by delay effect. The effect of chilling on the growth period, flowering stage affected by delayed chilling injury. The minimum temperature reduced influence on rice growth period and reduce the solar radiation on the growth period. 鍝嶈緝?yōu)?

本文編號(hào)：1484028