煤炭是即石油之后的重要能要能源,主要用于工業(yè)發(fā)電及供熱。根據(jù)國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)統(tǒng)計(jì),煤電占世界總發(fā)電量的30%。亞太地區(qū)的主要煤炭生產(chǎn)國(guó)有:澳大利亞、中國(guó)、印尼、菲律賓、越南、印度和俄羅斯。主要煤炭消費(fèi)國(guó)有:中國(guó)、日本、印度、臺(tái)灣和韓國(guó)。一些國(guó)家自產(chǎn)煤炭同時(shí)進(jìn)口煤炭;例如:中國(guó)和印度。亞太地區(qū)的主要供應(yīng)商有澳大利亞、印尼和南非,而中國(guó)、印度和日本則是最大的消費(fèi)國(guó)。目前,最大的煤炭出口國(guó)仍然是澳大利亞和印尼;他們具有地理優(yōu)勢(shì),便于進(jìn)入亞洲市場(chǎng)。每個(gè)國(guó)家的政府都在盡力消除限制其生產(chǎn)能力的壁壘,開發(fā)新的煤礦同時(shí)建設(shè)新的鐵路和公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)等運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面進(jìn)行大量投資。對(duì)于俄羅斯和南非等處于大西洋供應(yīng)商來說,運(yùn)輸仍是進(jìn)入亞洲市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)壁壘。亞洲供應(yīng)商充分利用自身的地理優(yōu)勢(shì),與此同時(shí),亞洲煤炭消費(fèi)國(guó)正在嘗試尋找新的供應(yīng)商,如北朝鮮和蒙古。任何市場(chǎng)的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)都可以通過數(shù)學(xué)建模或者僅僅觀察參與者的行為來進(jìn)行調(diào)查。采用后者,亞太市場(chǎng)是一個(gè)不完美市場(chǎng),因?yàn)樯俨糠殖蓡T占有大量的市場(chǎng)份額,主要包括:需求側(cè)中國(guó)以及供給側(cè)的印尼和澳大利亞。中國(guó)是全球最大的進(jìn)口國(guó),但仍無法決定市場(chǎng)價(jià)格。另一方面,澳大利亞和印尼也沒能成為壟... 

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：106 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
Acknowledgment
Abstract
擴(kuò)展摘要
1 Introduction
    1.1 General Background
    1.2 Energy and Trade
        1.2.1 The need for energy trade in Asia
        1.2.2 Coal trade
    1.3 Coal export trends for 2014-2015
        1.3.1 Major players in the supply side of coal trade
    1.4 Trend of World Coal import
        1.4.1 Which countries import the most coal?
    1.5 World?s Coal trade flows
        1.5.1 The future of Coal demand
        1.5.2 The future of Coal Production
    1.6 Trade market for steam coal
    1.7 Objective of this study
        1.7.1 Specific objectives
    1.8 Significance of the study
    1.9 Contribution of the study
    1.10 Chapter summary
2. Coal in the Asia-Pacific Market
    2.1 A note on the structure of this Market
    2.2 How important is Coal energy to Asian countries?
    2.3 Trends of Coal Sector in each country under study
        2.3.1 Coal sector in South Africa
        2.3.2 Australia
        2.3.3 China
        2.3.4 Indonesia
        2.3.5 Russia
        2.3.6 Philippines
        2.3.7 Vietnam and its Coal resources
    2.4 Transport Cost
    2.5 Chapter summary
3 Literature Review
    3.1 The increasing role of coal in the power sector
    3.2 Development of Equilibrium models
    3.3 State of the literature
    3.4 Chapter summary
4 Research Methodology
    4.1 The Model for Coal
        4.1.1 Coal Market Model for Asia and the Pacific
    4.2 Spatial Equilibrium Models (SEM)
        4.2.1 Introduction
        4.2.2 Formulation of SEM?s
        4.2.3 Mathematical Formulation of the Optimization Model
    4.3 Influence of economic size on the volume of Coal trade
        4.3.1 How geographical dispersion determines Coal Trade Flow in the region
    4.4 Data and sources of data
    4.5 Scope of study
    4.6 Data analysis
    4.7 Work flow
    4.8 Organization of the thesis
    4.9 Work Flow Chart
5 Findings and Discussions
    5.1 Supply Curves
    5.2 Demand Curves
    5.3 Constant Terms
    5.4 Summary Results for Least Square Estimations (OLS)
    5.5 Optimization Results
        5.5.1 Optimal Export quantities (from supply region)
        5.5.2 Optimal Import quantities (demand region)
    5.6 Equilibrium levels of trade/Optimal coal trade flows
        5.6.1 Representation of Optimal Coal trade flows
        5.6.2 Comparing Optimal Trade with the Actual Trade Flow
        5.6.3 Explaining the difference between Actual trade and Optimal Trade
    5.7 Influence of economic size and distance on volume of trade
    5.8 Knowledge Gap for Future studies
    5.9 Chapter summary
6 Conclusions
    6.1 Recommendations
    6.2 Limitations of the study
References
Author’s Resume
學(xué)位論文數(shù)據(jù)集



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