【摘要】：為研究尾礦庫潰壩風險的演化過程,有效預防潰壩事故,從生命周期視角,運用系統(tǒng)動力學(SD)理論建立尾礦庫勘察設計、建造以及運行階段的潰壩風險流圖;結合尾礦庫案例進行應用分析,揭示該尾礦庫生命周期潰壩風險的動態(tài)演化特征;并探討企業(yè)風險預警值、風險投入方案對尾礦庫潰壩風險水平的影響。研究表明:隨著時間的推移,尾礦庫總體潰壩風險不斷增加;勘察設計階段,風險量在第40~55個月之間線性增長,風險速率變化曲線呈拋物線型;建造階段,潰壩風險量出現(xiàn)臺階式的增長;運行階段潰壩風險量波浪式上升,并在第60月達到最大值;企業(yè)風險預警值的改變對尾礦庫潰壩風險水平預測有顯著影響;勘察設計階段增加風險管理投入,有助于降低和控制尾礦庫潰壩風險。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution process of tailing dam break risk and prevent dam break accident effectively, from the point of view of life cycle, using the (SD) theory of system dynamics, the risk flow chart of tailing dam failure in the stages of investigation, design, construction and operation is established. Based on the application analysis of tailing reservoir case, the dynamic evolution characteristics of dam break risk in the tailing reservoir life cycle are revealed, and the influence of enterprise risk early warning value and risk investment scheme on the risk level of tailing dam break is discussed. The results show that the overall dam break risk of tailings reservoir increases with time, the risk increases linearly between the 40th and the 55th month in the survey and design stage, and the change curve of the risk rate is parabola. The number of dam-break risk increased step by step, the wave of dam-break risk increased in operation stage, and reached the maximum in 60th month, the change of enterprise risk warning value had significant influence on the prediction of dam break risk level of tailings reservoir. Increasing investment in risk management is helpful to reduce and control the risk of tailing dam break.
【作者單位】： 山東工商學院管理科學與工程學院;北京石油化工學院安全工程學院;北京市安全生產科學技術研究院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金資助(51474151) 山東省自然科學基金資助(ZR2014GQ015,ZR2012GM003) 山東工商學院博士啟動基金資助(BS201710)
【分類號】：TD926.4

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前3條

1 王晉淼;賈明濤;王建;陳建宏;龍科明;;基于物元可拓模型的尾礦庫潰壩風險評價研究[J];中國安全生產科學技術;2014年04期

2 譚星宇;謝賢平;王彥波;;基于模糊層次分析的尾礦庫潰壩風險評價[J];中國非金屬礦工業(yè)導刊;2014年01期

3 李全明;張興凱;王云海;張丙印;;尾礦庫潰壩風險指標體系及風險評價模型研究[J];水利學報;2009年08期

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 楊儉;哈爾烏素露天礦防洪工程方案及潰壩風險研究[D];遼寧工程技術大學;2014年

，

本文編號：2291735